House Rankings

November 4th: Final ratings

2008-11-16T15:37:00.001-08:00

This is not the time for grand narratives about the state of the House battle: I offered one in my preceding rating updates on Saturday, but some final house-cleaning was in order: Too many once-competitive but now-safe Democratic seats had been left in the list, and I also moved two new GOP-held seats to the lean Democratic column (though another one moved back to the toss-up category).

We will soon know the breakdown of the 111th Congress. Surprises surely await us, but there is no question Democrats will be very disappointed if they net less than 20 seats. Who could have predicted just six weeks ago that only losing a net 20 seats would be a great moral victory for Republicans?

Note, when reading these ratings, that a "lean" designation means that the race tilts towards one candidate but that the contest remains highly competitive and that an opposite result would not be surprising. A "likely" designation signals that a candidate is strongly favored and that the opposite result would be a considered a stunning upset - though we should certainly expect a number of those on Tuesday nights. There is simply not enough data on House races to draw exact conclusions as to which district are the most vulnerable.

Safe Democratic: 211
Likely/Safe Democratic: 231
Lean/Likely/Safe Democratic: 246
Toss-ups: 26
Lean/Likely/Safe Republican: 163
Likely/Safe Republican: 149
Safe Republican: 124

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History of House ratings:

October: Can Democrats keep up the 2006 parallel?
August: Will the DCCC succeed in putting the top tier in play?
June: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York
February: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep clear edge
November: How many more Republican retirements?
October: Democrats feel better as GOP faces worrisome retirements
September: Democrats poised to keep majority

Republican seats, Likely take-over (7)

AK-AL (Rep. Young, polls, last updated November 1st): Any hope Rep. Don Young might have had to overcome the ethical scandals that surround him and survive Tuesday's vote evaporated with Ted Stevens' conviction. The state GOP's corruption troubles and Young's ruined reputation were once again cast in the spotlight. Ethan Berkowitz has been leading Young for months, and Democrats are poised to win their first federal race in this state since the 1970s.
AZ-01 (open, last updated October 25th): No one gives Republican candidate Sydney Hay much of a chance to beat former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in this open seat, but the DCCC is taking no chances. It has already poured $1.7 million in the district, including a $338,000 buy this week. The DCCC's continuous spending suggests that their internal numbers aren't showing the easy pick-up that has come to be expected, but those $1.7 million spent labeling Hay a "corporate lobbyist" should close any door the Republican might have had.
IL-11 (Open, polls, last updated October 25th): Debbie Halvorson was once one of the Democrats' biggest recruits, while Republicans did not even have a candidate well into 2008. But eventual GOP nominee Martin Ozinga proved surprisingly resilient in a district Democrats were expected to pick up easily. Not anymore. The Democrats' surge over the past month has erased the GOP's hopes of pulling off come-back victories in districts like this, and the DCCC's money (more than $1 million) is helping Halvorson close the deal. Independent polls and private Democratic surveys find Halvorson pulling ahead.
FL-24 (Rep. Feeney, last updated November 1st): Rep. Tom Feeney was caught in the worst position a politician can find himself in: He was so damaged by reports of his ties to Jack Abramoff that he simply had to air an ad apologizing - but in so doing he might very well have sealed his fate. Even Republicans no longer believe Feeney can survive, and the NRCC has not spent a dime on his behalf; Democrats, meanwhile, have spent more than $1,1 million and have ensured that the Abramoff-funded Scotland trip remains on voters' minds with some hard-hitting ads of their own. The only poll we have seen of late has been a DCCC internal showing Kosmas leading by 23%; that might have seemed excessive, but the GOP's failure to release a counter-poll reveals just as much about the state of the race as the DCCC's poll.
NY-13 (open, last updated October 5th): Who knew Republicans had it in them to make this race even more chaotic? Just all the spring and summer confusion seemed to have given way to a slow wait for Democrat McMahon's certain victory, a new chapter was written in the civil war of Staten Island's Republican Party when GOP nominee Staniere squashed an attempt to grant him a judicial nomination to perhaps pave the way for Rep. Fossella's return on the ballot.
NY-25 (open, last updated October 5th): An open seat in a blue-leaning district is a gift to Democrats in a year in which they are favored. Note that the DCCC has stepped in and spent more than $100,000 in ads so far; should that be taken as a sign that the race could be tighter than we are thinking or as confirmation that Democrats have enough money for insurance policies? The only potential danger for Democratic candidate Maffei right now is his connection with Rep. Rangel.
VA-11 (open, polls, last updated October 5th): The situation is the same as in NY-25, and the DCCC has spent some money here as well.

Democratic seats, Likely take-over (1)

FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney, last updated October 18th): Rep. Tim Mahoney was elected to replace Mike Foley two years ago - and now he himself is embroiled in a massive sex scandal that includes charges of pay-off and harassment. Pelosi has called for an investigation, Republicans are having a field day and Mahoney’s re-election prospects have fallen so low that even the NRCC moved out of the district: they don’t even see the need to spend any money to ensure the seat falls in their lap. A recent GOP poll had Tom Rooney leading by more than 20%, confirming that this race is over.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (12)

CO-04 (Rep. Musgrave, polls, last updated October 5th): Musgrave consistently under-performs her district's Republican lean, and she holds the dubious distinction of being the 2006 House candidate to win with the lowest share of the vote (45%). Now, Democrats are heavily targeting her, and so are independent groups. Musgrave has been targeted by the largest outside expenditure of any district: the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund just bought a stunning $650,000 worth of air time. A late August independent poll and a mid-September Democratic poll found Democratic nominee Betsy Markey leading Musgrave outside of the MoE - never a good place for an incumbent to be.
FL-08 (Rep. Keller, last updated October 25th): It looks like Rep. Keller will be the victim of the Democrats' gains in the Sunshine State, and Obama's ground game risks overpowering the GOP machine in this Orlando-based district. In fact, Democrats just gained an edge in voter registration in the district, reversing the GOP's 14,000 voter advantage just two years ago. Add that to Keller's own weakness (he only received 55% of the vote against a weak opponent in the primary), and you get an explosive combination. The DCCC just released a poll showing its candidate Allen Grayson leading by 11%, even though they have curiously still not spent a dime in the district. Keller quickly replied with a survey of his own showing him leading 47% to 43%, but you know things are bad for an incumbent when he feels compelled to release such weak numbers.
ID-01 (Rep. Sali, polls, last updated November 4rd): That such a conservative district could find itself in the lean take-over column is entirely due to Rep. Bill Sali, who is despised but much of his state's GOP establishment - as well as by many voters. Sali is a controversial provocateur who gained national headlines recently by heckling his opponent's chief of staff while he was delivering a television interview. The latest polls show Democratic nominee Walt Minnick has a slight lead. But this is Idaho, so no Republican incumbent will ever be a clear underdog and the race remains highly competitive.
MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg, last updated October 25th): Joe Knollenberg is a well-established incumbent who would be very difficult to beat in a neutral environment, but the Democratic wave is now threatening to submerge him. Not only did the incumbent receive a terrible blow when McCain abruptly pulled out of Michigan, undercutting Knollenberg's hopes of relying on the GOP's presidential ground game to turn out his own base, but the NRCC has canceled all of the $600,000 it had planned on spending on his behalf. By contrast, the DCCC has already spent $1,6 million on behalf of Democratic candidate Gary Peters and the Obama campaign is still organizing in the state. A just-released DCCC poll has Peters ahead by 10%; that might be overstating his lead, but the NRCC's decision to pull out of the race confirms that even the GOP thinks the race is drifting away.
NC-08 (Rep. Hayes, polls, last updated October 25th): What a difference two years make. In 2006, Democrat Larry Kissell was pleading for the DCCC to invest some resources in his race against Rep. Robin Hayes. The DCCC left him in the cold, and Kissell lost by about 300 votes. This year, the DCCC is not committing the same mistake: they have already poured in $1.7 million, while the NRCC has invested nothing. Kissell is also benefiting from Democratic gains in North Carolina. And the expected boost in African-American turnout (as testified by the early voting numbers) should make a huge difference in this district, which has a substantial African-American population. As if this was not enough, both an internal DCCC poll and a SUSA survey showed Kissell with a large lead over Hayes over the past month.
NM-01 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): GOP nominee Darren White is one of the Republicans' strongest recruits this cycle, and it is unlucky for him he is running in a year whose fundamentals favor Democrats. John Kerry only won the district by 3% in 2004 but Barack Obama could win it by a comfortable margin, and that should help Democratic nominee Martin Heinrich who already appears to have a slight edge. This race remains highly competitive, however, and the DCCC is pouring in hundreds of thousands of dollars already.
NM-02 (Open, last updated November 3rd): This is a conservative district, but Barack Obama's gains in the state will hep Harry Teague (in this district) and Martin Heinrich (in NM-01). But a dominant dynamic in this district has been money: Both nominees are wealthy, but Teague has donated far more to his campaign and has benefited from a high $1,5 million the DCCC has poured in the race. By contrast, not only has the NRCC failed to invest a dime in the district, but Ed Tinsley himself has stopped airing advertisements, meaning that the GOP's camp has gone dark in the district.
NV-03 (Rep. Porter, polls, last updated October 5th): Porter recently decided that it was urgent for him to release an internal poll which shows him leading within the margin error and at a dismal 41%. That tells you just about all you need to know on Porter's vulnerability. The incumbent is being helped by Freedom's Watch, and that money will come in very handy to strike back against the DCCC's attack ads.
NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl, last updated October 11th): Republicans currently hold six seats in the Empire State, and Democrats have been targeting four of them - including three in upstate New York. Of these four seats, NY-29 is the only one featuring an incumbent. Rep. Kuhl barely survived the 2006 cycle, and Democrat Eric Massa is back for a rematch. It is never easy to topple an incumbent, but New York's Republican Party is in disarray and Kuhl looks highly vulnerable. Three polls released over the past week (one by SUSA, one by Research 2000 and one released by Democrats) show Massa leading outside of the margin of error, with Kuhl in the low 40s. That's not a good place to be for an incumbent. Add to that the DCCC's commitment to fund this race, and Democrats have a slight edge.
OH-15 (Open, last updated October 11th): If the political environment didn't favor Democrats, Republicans would be very well positioned to defy the odds and retain this district. Mary Jo Kilroy hasn't been a strong campaigner (she was favored to pick-up the seat in 2006 but fell short in one of the GOP's most unexpected victories of the cycle) and Republican state Sen. Stivers is a strong recruit. But this is not a neutral year, and any Republican would face an uphill fight in an open seat in a swing district like OH-15. A recent SUSA poll and an internal DCCC poll find Kilroy leading by single-digits, and that is where the race should be on paper as well: Kilroy underperforming but able to hold on to a slight lead. Add to that the DCCC's commitment to win this seat over (they have already spent more than $1 million dollar!), and the picture looks even bleaker for the GOP.
OH-16 (Open, last updated October 5th): Democrats were hoping this would be a fairly easy pick-up, but Republican state Sen. Schuring has stayed alive in a district that tilts Republican at the presidential level. A recent SUSA poll showed that state Sen. Boccieri is ahead, but he has yet to close the deal. The DCCC has already spent more than $800,000 attacking Schuring, and that money could make the difference in absence of a GOP response.
PA-03 (Rep. English, last updated November 1st): Democratic challenger Kathy Dahlkemper was always considered a good recruit by Democrats. but this was never supposed to be a top-tier race. But we got our first taste of how vulnerable Rep. Phil English was when the NRCC chose to make one of its very first investments here. Unfortunately for Republicans, that did not prevent the DCCC from significantly outspending its counterpart (and pouring in a total of $1.5 million over the past 6 weeks). Pushed by the Democratic wind, Dahlkemper is in a strong position to knock off the incumbent Republican. An English victory would certainly not be shocking, but the race now narrowly tilts Democratic.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (2)

PA-11 (Rep. Kanjorski, last updated October 5th): Kanjorski should not be in troube. He is an entrenched Democratic incumbent whose district is not particularly conservative running in a year that is shaping up to be a strong one for Democrats. But the fact that he has not faced a competitive challenge for years has weakened his hold on the district and it might already be too late for him to save himself. Lou Barletta, the very conservative Republican candidate, is leading in most polls - and an independent survey released in September found the incumbent at a truly dismal 35%. Kanjorski's only hope is to ride the DCCC's money to discredit Barletta and eek out a narrow victory; the DCCC has indeed been pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars for months now in attack ads against Barletta, and the most recent spots - hitting Barletta for supporting the privatization of Social Security - could be particularly damaging in this electoral climate. One important question is how the electorate will react to Kanjorski's leading role in crafting the bailout.
TX-22 (Rep. Lampson, last updated October 5th): Lampson's hope for survival rests in the parties' financial disparities - if the DCCC spends heavily on his behalf and the GOP fails to answer, could he survive in what is a very heavily conservative district? Unfortunately for Lampson, Freedom's Watch is ensuring a Republican presence on the air.

Republican seats, Toss-up (18)

AL-02 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): Bobby Bright is perhaps the only Democrat who could have made this heavily conservative district competitive - perhaps because he is not a Democrat to start with. But competitive it is! The Montgomery mayor will also be helped by the endorsement of an important Republican mayor from the district, and his financial situation is boosted by the DCCC's investment.
CA-04 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): This is a heavily Republican district, and the GOP candidate is an important figure in the state's conservative circles. But the ethical trouble of outgoing Rep. Doolittle have given Democrats an opening, and their candidate Charlie Brown has already introduced himself to the district's voters (he got 46% of the vote in 2006). The GOP thinks it built an advantage by using footage of Charlie Brown in military uniform at an anti-war rally, but recent surveys have found a dead heat, with internal polls for both campaigns finding their candidates holding the edge and an independent survey giving a slight edge to Brown.
CT-04 (Rep. Shays, last updated October 5th): As expected, this race is proving contentious. The only available poll shows the two tied, and they are on equal footing financially, and the DCCC's money is being outmatched by a big investment on Shay's behalf (more than $500,000) by the National Association of Realtors PAC.
FL-21 (Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, polls, last updated October 5th): An early September SUSA poll found Democratic challenger Raul Martinez with a tiny lead, removing any doubt that this Southern Florida district is a prime pick-up opportunity. Diaz-Balart's hope for survival rests on the high negatives Martinez earned during his controversial tenures as the mayor of Hialeah. Diaz-Balart's ads have accused Martinez of using his office for financial gain and have hinted at his involvement in drug trafficking! Meanwhile, an independent Cuban-American group is hitting Diaz-Balart for adopting too strict a line on US-Cuba relations, and Patriot Majority is running spots on Martinez's behalf.
FL-25 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, polls, last updated October 5th): The dynamics of the race are very similar to those of FL-21, as the second of the Diaz-Balart brothers also faces a challenge to his hold on Cuban-American votes. Polling has shown the race is tight, but the main difference plays to the Republican's disadvantage: Democratic candidate Joe Garcia isn't as controversial a figure as Raul Martinez, and that gives the GOP fewer openings.
IL-10 (Rep. Kirk)
IN-03 (Rep. Souder, last updated November 1st): This is not a district Republicans should worry about for a single minute. George Bush got 68% of the vote in 2004 - but Rep. Mark Souder only prevailed by 8% in 2006 against an underfunded opponent. This year, Democratic attorney Michael Montagano is attracting more attention and he is being helped by national Democrats. Both congressional committees have engaged in the district over the past few weeks, with the DCCC outspending its counterpart 2:1. It would be a true upset for Souder to lose, but two recent polls confirm that the race is now a dead heat and Montagano from Barack Obama's remarkable ground game in the Hoosier State. Who would have thought a Democratic presidential candidate could help down-the-ballot candidate in such a conservative district?
LA-04 (Open, last updated October 5th): The primary was only held on October 4th (it was postponed because of Hurricane Ike) and the nominee of both parties will be decided in a runoff. The good news for Democrats is that Paul Carmouche, a DA with strong name recognition, is almost assured of winning his party's nod on November 4th as he got 48% of the vote yesterday; the Republican primary should be more contentious, as the top two candidates came within a few percentage points of each other. The general election will be held on December 6th, which should help Carmouche overcome the district's conservative lean.
MD-01 (Open, last updated October 18th): The GOP primary between Andy Harris and Rep. Gilchrest appears to have left deep wounds that has given Democratic nominee Frank M. Kratovil a chance at a major upset in a very conservative district. Democratic internal polls are showing the race is a dead heat, and the GOP is not moving to contradict that. At the end of September, the DCCC decided to invest in the district - and they have already spent more than $900,000! Meanwhile, Harris is being helped by Club for Growth, which has spent more than $300,000 on his behalf. Democrats picking-up MD-01 would be the sign of a big blue wave.
MI-07 (Rep. Walberg, polls, last updated October 5th): Not only are polls showing a tight race in this conservative-leaning district, but McCain's sudden and unexpected decision to pull out of Michigan leaves a void in the Republican ground game in the Wolverine State - and that could prove a huge headache for the state's down-ballot Republicans.
MN-03 (Open, last updated November 4th): Barack Obama managed to avoid a racialization of the presidential campaign, but this House race has been marked by repeated controversies over the GOP's treatment of Aswhin Madia's ethnicity - first in statements by Republican officials about Erik Paulsen "fitting the demographics of the district" and then in a polemic over whether the GOP darkened Madia's skin color in a campaign commercial. While such controversies can certainly hurt Republicans, minority candidates rarely benefit when racial cues are injected in a race. Both parties have invested huge resources in the district, and the SEIU has also been helping Madia. SUSA's two latest polls have shown Paulsen erase a deficit and move into an edge, however, and the district has a slight Republican lean which Madia will have to overcome.
MO-09 (Open, polls, last updated October 18th): This is one of those few districts the NRCC has invested in. That is both a sign that the party is worried about losing this conservative-leaning district and a sign that they think it is salvageable, putting the race right in the toss-up category. But the DCCC is making sure to significantly outspend the NRCC ($400,000 to $100,000). A further problem for Republicans: their nominee Blaine Luetkemeyer finished September with a stunningly low $43,000. That means that Luetkemeyer absolutely needs the national help he is getting just to stay financially viable.
MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann, last updated October 25th): It is too early to tell whether Michelle Bachmann's anti-Americanism rant on MSNBC will prove to be her macaca moment, but it has seriously endangered her reelection chances. Two polls released over the past week showed Bachmann trailing within the margin of error, a remarkable turn of events in a race that until two weeks ago was considered to be relatively safe.And you can't accuse Bachmann of backing down easily. After standing her ground in the immediate aftermath of her comments, Bachmann is now airing an in which she asks voters to understand that “I may not always get my words right, but I know that my heart is right." Far from apologizing, Bachmann repeats her argument that liberalism stands in opposition to American values. "We could embrace government as the answer to our problems," she says. "Or we can choose freedom and liberty."
NE-02 (Rep. Terry, last updated November 4th): GOP Rep. Lee Terry did not take the threat represented by Jim Esch seriously enough for far too long, while Esch has been campaigning for years now (he lost to Terry by 10% in 2006). Both parties have invested more than $500,000 in the district, but Esch will be able to rely on Barack Obama's organization in a district whose stand-alone electoral vote Obama is trying to win. Terry has been distributing mailers targeting "Terry-Obama" voters, a remarkable admission that Democrats are making gains in Omaha.
NJ-03 (Open, last updated October 5th): Along with the two Ohio open seats, IL-11 and NJ-07, this is an open seat Democrats were once hoping they would win comfortably - but the only polls we have seen point to a dead heat, and the DCCC has already invested hundreds of thousands of dollars. One key factor here is the candidates' own financial situation. Democratic candidate Adler has a significant fundraising advantage, and it is unlikely his Republican opponent can pull this out unless he benefits from the NRCC's help. This race could soon move back to the lean take-over column if the NRCC does not invest in the district.
NJ-07 (Open, last updated October 5th): The situation in this Dem-leaning district parallels that of NJ-03: an open seat it should be winning more easily that the DCCC is pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars in. Here again, spending disparities could make a difference: this is a very expensive district to play in because it falls in the New York City market, and that could prove all Democrats need to eek out a victory. However, Republican hopes rest on the high negatives Linda Stender earned from her 2006 race, when the GOP had played on the "pun" Stender/Spender to tag her as a "big spender." The Republicans are using the same strategy this year in a childish but effective ad campaign.
OH-01 (Rep. Chabot, polls, last updated October 5th): Chabot barely survived in 2006, and he has just as difficult a race to deal with this year. More than in most House races, the result could depend on Barack Obama's coattails. This district has a substantial African-American population, and Obama's ground game will thus heavily target sporadic black voters here; any increase in the share of black voters would naturally boost House candidate Driehaus.
WA-08 (Rep. Reichert, polls, last updated October 25th): Rematches tend to be the most brutal races, and the second match-up between Rep. Reichert and Darcy Burner is no exception. The latest salvos include both camps questioning their opponent's college degree, with the conservative Seattle Times taking care of the (now discredited) hit job on the Democrat. That said, Burner has significantly improved her poll numbers over the past two weeks; after two Democratic surveys found her ahead, SUSA and Research 2000 both confirmed that she had erased Reichert's lead.
WY-AL (Open, last updated November 1st): Republicans were hoping that unpopular incumbent Barbara Cubin's retirement would guarantee that this very conservative district stays in their hand, but repeat candidate Democrat Gary Trauner is proving to be just as competitive as he was in 2006. Polls are showing Trauner and Republican nominee Cynthia Lummis are locked in a dead heat, though one worry for Democrats is that most undecided voters are Republicans. At the very least, Democrats have forced the NRCC to spend some of its limited resources in this district instead of in more obviously vulnerable seats. (The NRCC has spent about $350,000; the DCCC more than $800,000.)

Democratic seats, Toss-up (7)

AL-05 (Open, last updated October 5th): Democrats thought that they had built a slight edge in the toughest open seat they are defending, but Republicans are now going all out against Parker Griffith. GOP candidate Wayne Parker has obtained an internal peer review from Griffith's radiation oncologist days. The document charges that Griffith under-radiated patients at his cancer treatment center in order to charge them more money; Parker is running an ad devoted to the issue, and Democrats have been forced on the defensive.
GA-08 (Rep. Marshall, last updated October 5th): How will the politics of the bailout impact Marshall's reelection race? He is one of the rare vulnerable incumbents to have voted "yes" on both House votes, and he quickly went up with an ad explaining his decision. That is a clear sign that Marshall is worried his opponent (who came out in opposition to the bailout, though only after the first House vote) could make this into a powerful campaign issue.
KS-02 (Rep. Boyda, polls)
LA-06 (Rep. Cazayoux, last updated October 18th): Rep. Cazayoux became one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents when fellow Democrat Michael Jackson announced he would mount an independent bid. In this Republican a district, a Democrat needs to mobilize the African-Amerian vote, and Jackson’s candidacy threatens to divide a key constituency. Yet, Democrats have released two internal polls over the past few months showing Cazayoux crushing GOP candidate Bill Cassidy, with Jackson in single digits. I have trouble believing that two Democratic candidates could receive 30% more than the Republican nominee in a district that gave Bush 59% of the vote in 2004, but the GOP has not released an internal poll of their own. I might not (yet) moving LA-06 to lean Democratic, but it is clear that Cassidy does not have the edge I thought he would.
NH-01 (Rep. Shea-Porter, polls, last updated October 5th): Former Rep. Jeb Bradley narrowly won the Republican primary and earned a rematch against Carol Shea-Porter. Recent polls have shown a horse race, with Shea-Porter trailing in UNH and leading by 1% in Research 2000. The outcome of this election will probably be decided by whether the GOP brand has improved among New Hampshire independents over the past two years. The DCCC has already poured in nearly $700,000 to help Shea-Porter.
PA-12 (Rep. Murtha, last updated November 1st): The situation is getting worse by the day for Jack Murtha ever since he described Western Pennsylvania as a "racist" area. The comments have attracted a huge amount of attention in the local media, and the GOP is moving to make sure that every voter is aware of the controversy by Tuesday. A bombshell exploded today as it was revealed that the NRCC had bought $465,000 worth of air time to use against Murtha, guaranteeing that his comments continue to receive one play. Given that the NRCC has had to pull hte plug on a number of endangered Republican incumbents, for them to invest this much money in this seat means that they are very confident that Murtha's comments have been a game changer.
WI-8 (Rep. Kagen, polls, last updated October 5th): This is the first Democratic-held district that the NRCC invested in, a sure sign that the GOP believes this is a true opportunity. The DCCC is helping Kagen, but they have not released their own polls of the race - something the GOP has been willing to do, pointing to a dead heat.

Republican seats, Lean retention (12)

AZ-03 (Rep. Shadegg, last updated October 5th): Another stunning no one expected to be competitive this late in the cycle, but the DCCC's unexpected decision to dump more than $200,000 in an ad buy against Shadegg suggests that the veteran Republican incumbent is more endangered than commonly thought.
CA-50 (Rep. Bilbray, last updated November 4th): Republicans are increasingly nervous about some of the districts they hold in California, as they fear that Barack Obama's coattails combined with weak Republican turnout could boost Democratic candidates in CA-03, CA-26, CA-46 and CA-50. The DCCC has invested in none of these districts, but an upset cannot be ruled out in any. CA-50 looks the most promising for Democrats; Rep. Bilbray barely prevailed in a high-profile special election back in 2006.
KY-02 (Open, polls, last updated October 18th): This seat was the most chaotic of the cycle until NY-13 came around, and Democrats were excited that they had an excellent chance in this conservative a district. Polls taken throughout the spring and the summer suggested that state Senator Boswell had a slight lead. Yet, this is one the rare districts that have moved towards the GOP over the past few weeks. (SUSA has GOP candidate state Senator Guthrie gaining for the second month in a row to jump to a 9% lead, and the Boswell campaign’s internal numbers have the Democrat’s lead falling from 7% to 1%, with a lot of undecideds. This is an open seat in a conservative area, making it likely that undecideds would break towards Guthrie.) One possible explanation for Guthrie gains’ is that the DCCC’s involvement here has backfired: the committee’s attack ads were blasted as untrustworthy by the local media, putting Boswell on the defensive.
NV-02 (Rep. Heller, last updated October 11th): Nevada Democrats are riding the momentum of big registration gains, while Republicans are being weighed down by the unpopularity of their governor, not to mention the GOP's national difficulties. That gives an opening to Jill Derby, who is back for a rematch in this conservative district. An independent poll recently found Rep. Heller leading but under 50% and in single-digits, so the race is certainly competitive.
NY-26 (Open, last updated November 1st): While the race remains highly competitive, we can now say that Republican candidate Chris Lee has a slight advantage. Alice Kryzan's unexpected victory in the Democratic primary led hurts her party's efforts to win the seat, and, despite the DCCC spending almost $2 million in this seat, a recent independent poll shows Lee grabbing a double-digit lead. That might be overstating his advantage, as New York Republicans are an endangered species, but Democrats are no longer as optimistic as they were in the spring.
OH-02 (Rep. Schmidt, last updated October 5th): Schmidt maintains a lead in recent polling, but she remains under 50% - dangerous territory for any incumbent. This confirms that she has been unable to solidify her position in what is a very conservative district. Yet, this is her first time she is running in a presidential year, and McCain's coattails might help. This is one district in which a third party candidacy could affect the final results.
SC-01 (Rep. Brown, last updated November 1st): Republican incumbents in districts with a substantial African-American population are in grave danger of falling to the boost in black turnout that we have been already seeing in states like North Carolina and Georgia. This race was nowhere on our radar's screen at the beginning of October, and Rep. Brown certainly remains favored. But an upset by (openly gay) Democrat Linda Ketner is looking increasingly plausible. The DCCC has only invested limited resources in the district ($70,000), but that could be due to Ketner's ability to spend her own money.
TX-07 (Rep. Culberson, last updated November 1st): The DCCC might not have spent anything in this district, but that is not necessarily because they don't believe it is competitive: Democratic challenger Michael Skelly is a wealthy business executive who has donated a lot of money to his own campaign and he entered October with more than $1 million of cash on hand. That might not be enough by itself to knock off a Republican incumbent in a conservative district, but it certainly contributes to making the race competitive. And while Bush obtained a huge percentage of the vote here in 2004, Texas Republicans are worried that their numbers will deflate now that their former Governor no longer is on the ballot.
TX-10 (Rep. McCaul, last updated November 1st): This district might be ever so slightly less Republican than TX-07, but Bush got more than 60% of the vote in 2000 and in 2004 - underscoring just how difficult it will be for Democrats to score a shocking upset. But Democratic candidate and lawyer Larry Joe Doherty has raised enough money to be a credible contender and contest the district even without the DCCC"s help. Until we know the post-Bush state of Texas Republicans, Rep. McCaul has a target on his back and a Research 2000 poll released this week showed the incumbent leading by only 4% - and well under 50%.
VA-02 (Rep. Drake, last updated October 5th): A recent internal poll for the Nye campaign suggests that Drake isn't as safe as the GOP was hoping she would be, but she does retain an edge. Obama's ground game in the Old Dominion could be very helpful for Nye to score an upset here.
VA-05 (Rep. Goode, last updated November 1st): Rep. Goode is so entrenched in this district that he has run (and won) as a Democrat, an independent and a Republican. Now, he is finally facing a difficult re-election race in a state that is quickly shifting away from the GOP. The DCCC has invested more than $600,000 in the district over the course of three weeks, confirming that we should keep a close eye on this district. A victory by Democratic challenger Tom Perriello would no longer be a shocker.
WV-02 (Rep. Capito, last updated November 1st): Capito is a perennial target in a state that remains Democratic at the local level, but the incumbent did not seem particularly vulnerable as the year started. The DCCC has made a late investment in the district, and Hillary Clinton has traveled to support Democratic candidate Anne Barth. That it no longer looks like Barack Obama will be crushed in the district should prevent Capito from riding presidential coattails.

Democratic seats, Lean retention (3)

CA-11 (Rep. McNerney, last updated October 18th): When Rep. McNerney picked up the seat in 2006, the GOP was determined to make sure he served one term in what is a Republican district. But former state Rep. Dean Andal has not proved as strong a candidate as Republicans were hoping he would be. While he ends up in a competitive position financially as of the end of September, McNerney outspent him 8:1 in the second quarter, which allowed him to solidify his position - especially when you add the almost $1 million of television ads NARPAC is spending on McNerney’s behalf. Meanwhile, a recent SUSA poll gave McNerney an 11% edge.
PA-04 (Rep. Altmire, last updated October 5th): This is a high priority district for the GOP, but the fact that the DCCC hasn't spent a dime to help Altmire for now is a good sign for the incumbent. A mid-September internal poll for the campaign of former Rep. Hart showed her trailing by 5%. That certainly means that Altmire is endangered, but for him to have a narrow edge in a Republican poll suggests he starts off with an edge.
PA-10 (Rep. Carney, polls, last updated October 5th): This conservative district is one of the Republicans top targets, but the Democratic incumbent starts with a narrow advantage - as confirmed by the most recent polls. It is in districts such as these that Democratic gains in recent weeks could make themselves felt by immunizing Democrats against Republican attacks. Furthermore, the DCCC knows that Carney is endangered and is pouring in hundreds of thousands of dollars that the RNCC obviously cannot match.

Republican seats, likely retention (24)

AL-03 (Rep. Rogers)
CA-03 (Rep. Lungren, last updated October 18th): In what is a rematch of the 2006 race, GOP Rep. Dan Lungren has not been very worried about this re-election race (he only raised $190,000 in the third quarter) but Democrat Bill Durston no longer appears like the long-shot he was just two weeks ago. An internal Durston poll showed him within 3% of the incumbent; Lungren replied with two internal polls showing him with big leads - but under 50%.
CA-26 (Rep. Dreier, last updated October 18th): Rep. David Dreier has been in office for 28 years in a GOP-leaning district. Should that not be enough to guarantee his re-election? Perhaps in another year, but Dreier is one of many Republicans who should be very careful in the coming weeks. Russ Warner is a credible enough candidate that he could be in a position of making the race unexpectedly competitive if there is a strong blue wave.
CA-45 (Rep. Bono Mack, added November 4th)
CA-46 (Rep. Rohrabacher, last updated October 18th): Rep. Dana Rohrabacher was nowhere on our radar screen, but Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook appears to have a chance at scoring a big upset. While we have gotten no hard numbers from the race, a Capitol Weekly article reveals that Republican internals have the race within the margin of error! Cook’s third quarter fundraising was good, but she ended September with only $30,284. She will need the DCCC’s help to make this any more competitive.
FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan, last updated October 5th): Independent polls show Buchanan with a large lead over Jennings in this rematch of a controversial 2006 race. Complicating matters for Jennings is that Jan Schneider, the Democratic nominee in 2002 and 2004, will be on the ballot as an independent. She is expected to draw a substantial enough share of the vote to make the electoral math very difficult for Jennings to pull off.
FL-15 (open)
FL-18 (Rep. Ros-Lehtinen, polls, last updated October 5th): The third of the three Southern Florida districts, FL-18 is also the least competitive. Democratic candidate Annette Taddeo is a favorite of the netroots, but Ros-Lehtinen has simply shown little sign of vulnerability for now. The latest polls have her ahead by commanding margins.
IA-04 (Rep. Latham, last updated October 25th): Rep. Latham is sitting in one of the least Republican districts held by his party, and that's not a good district to hold in a heavily Democratic year. Becky Greenwald is now in a position to score one of the year's biggest upsets, just as her party shockingly picked-up IA-02 out of nowhere two years ago. A just-released Research 2000 poll shows Latham leading by only 5%, and Barack Obama's strength in Iowa could further boost down-the-ballot Democratic totals in the state.
IL-06 (Rep. Roskam)
IL-18 (Open, last updated October 5th): Aaron Schock is on his way to becoming the youngest members of the 111th Congress. An internal poll for his campaign finds him ahead by 30%, and, while that might be an exaggerated lead, Democrats have not released an internal poll of their own that would contradict those results. Perhaps the best sign of Democratic desperation came when Democratic candidate Callahan released a remake of the Daisy ad.
LA-07 (Rep. Boustany)
MI-08 (Rep. Rogers, added on November 4th)
MO-06 (Rep. Graves, last updated November 1st): This has perhaps been the most disappointing race for Democrats this year. Former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes was one of their top recruits, but as other Democrats got more and more competitive, Barnes faded away. Perhaps this was due to Rep. Graves' quick hit on his opponent: his spring ad attacking Barnes' San Fransisco values provoked much controversy, will surely be remembered as one of the most memorable ads of the year and might have discredited Barnes. SUSA's latest poll has Rep. Graves jumping to a shocking 18% lead, and, in the surest sign that Graves has gotten himself out of trouble, the DCCC has dropped out of the district for the past two weeks. All of this said, if there is one year in which a Democratic challenger can beat all the odds and unexpectedly prevail, it's this one - so don't completely rule out an upset.
NC-05 (Rep. Foxx, last updated November 1st): It seems insane to put this district on our radar screen, and frankly, it is insane. But in the current environment, no Republican incumbent who is facing a credible Democratic challenger can be entirely safe, particularly in a state like North Carolina where the electorate has so dramatically shifted blue.
NC-10 (Rep. McHenry, last updated October 18th): Rep. McHenry has been mentioned as a potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent for months, but in a district that Bush won with 67% of the vote in 2004, a GOP candidate is allowed the benefit of the doubt. Yet, Democrats believe their candidate Daniel Johnson has a chance at offsetting the district’s Republican balance. Given how much progress Democrats appear to have made in the state, that is certainly possible. Johnson has been added to the Red to Blue program, and he will need DCCC spending to make this really competitive.
NJ-05 (Rep. Garrett, last updated October 25th): Not that Rep. Garrett is sitting in an overwhelmingly Republican district (Bush got 57% of the vote in 2004, but only 52% in 2000), but he was not expected to face that competitive a challenge this year. Yet, Democratic gains have been the strongest in the Northeast, and that has put this seat on the Democrats' radar screen. Garrett's opponent is progressive candidate and netroots favorite Rabbi Dennis Shulman, a credible enough contender to benefit if voters are looking to reject Garrett. A just-released Research 2000 poll has a 7% race, and Garrett is feeling nervous enough about his chances to have released one of the most vicious ads we have seen this year, juxtaposing his opponent to Ahmadinejad.
OH-07 (Open)
OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette)
PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach)
PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
SC-02 (Rep. Wilson, last updated October 18th): This race is even more of a long-shot than SC-01 because Democratic candidate Rob Miller does not have the financial advantage enjoyed by Linda Ketner, but Rep. Joe Wilson should nonetheless be careful. This is a district where an increased share in black turnout could have a big impact, as a quarter of the district’s residents is African-American.
VA-10 (Rep. Wolf)

Democratic seats, likely retention (13)

AZ-05 (Rep. Mitchell, last updated November 4th): Democrat Harry Mitchell won a late-breaking race in 2006, and Republicans immediately put him on their target list. But the environment is simply too toxic for the GOP for Mitchell to be seriously endangered. Taking no risks, the DCCC has invested more than $1.3 million in the district, while Republican nominee David Schweikert has gotten no national help; the Club for Growth, which had endorsed him, has barely spent any money on his behalf.
AZ-08 (Rep. Giffords, polls, last updated October 18th): Republicans had high hope for state Senate President Tim Bee, but Rep. Giffords looks too strong for the GOP to defeat in this Democratic year - not to mention that Giffords has been one of the strongest fundraisers among endangered Democrats. Now, the DCCC has canceled the rest of its TV reservations after spending more than $300,000 helping Giffords, a sure sign that national Democrats feel confident about Giffords’ prospects. The NRCC cannot come to Bee’s help, meaning that the two candidates are now on their own - and Giffords had far more cash on hand at the end of September than her opponent.
CT-05 (Rep. Murphy)
GA-12 (Rep. Barrow): Republican John Stone never caught fire in a district that tilts narrowly Democratic. Barrow barely survived in 2006, but he has had two more years to entrench himself since then.
KS-03 (Rep. Moore): There isn't much action in this heavily conservative district that the GOP has been looking.
IL-08 (Rep. Bean)
IN-09 (Rep. Hill, polls, last updated October 11th): Republicans have not been able to gain as much traction as in past years for what is the fourth straight match-up between Baron Hill and Mike Sodrel. Hill won in 2002 and 2006, Sodrel won in 2004. Barack Obama's unexpected strength in the Hoosier State has undercut the GOP's hope that presidential coattails would carry Sodrel through the finish line as they did in 2004, not to mention that Hill will benefit from Obama's strong ground game while the McCain campaign has spent little time organizing Indiana. Recent independent polls have found Hill leading by double-digits.
IL-14 (Rep. Foster)
KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth, last updated November 1st): What was expected to be one of the hottest races of the 2008 cycle has turned out into an easy re-election campaign for Rep. Yarmuth. Anne Northup, the incumbent who Yarmuth narrowly defeated in 2006, is poised to suffer her third high-profile defeat in as many years (she also lost the GOP's gubernatorial nomination in 2007). Recent SUSA polls show Yarmuth with a wide lead, and the DCCC has not bothered investing a dime in the district. Given how much money Democrats have, would they not have moved in this race if they thought Yarmuth was endangered?
MN-01 (Rep. Walz, last updated October 5th): Walz leads by 18% in an internal poll released by his opponent. Enough said.
MS-01 (Rep. Childers, last updated November 1st): Travis Childers won a high-profile special election in May, and it is rare for voters to fire an incumbent after only a few months. The DCCC has poured in more than $200,000 over the past few months, while the NRCC has not engaged. Childers should be boosted further by the surge in African-American turnout that is manifesting itself in Southern states that propose early voting.
NY-20 (Rep. Gillibrand, last updated October 18th): Rep. Gillbrand has proved one of the strongest Democratic fundraisers, while Republican candidate Sandy Treadwell has been unable to get much traction - and is unlikely to do so without the NRCC’s help (which will not come). The district might be leaning Republican, but Gillbrand is strongly positioned to win re-election.
OR-05 (Open, last updated October 18th): Once one of the Republicans’ top pick-up opportunities, the district is rapidly drifting towards Democrats. Republican candidate Mike Erickson has been involved in a series of (abortion and ethics-related) scandals that have prevented him from gaining any traction and truly endangering state Senator Kirk Schrader, the Democratic nominee. The DCCC isn’t even spending any money on the district, a testament to how comfortable Democrats are feeling about the race. A recent SUSA poll had Schrader leading by 13%.
TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)

November 1st ratings

2008-11-01T13:16:00.000-07:00

House ratings, November 1st 2008

It is hard to believe that there are only three full days of campaigning let before Election Day, but in a number of districts the die might already have been cast due to the high proportion of voters who have already cast their ballot. The results might very well have already been decided, for instance, in NV-02, NV-03, OR-05, NC-08 or CO-04.

Even if nothing has been cast in stone in most of these districts, there is little campaigns can do at this point but focus on their GOTV efforts and hope that the presidential coattails will help them. The slightest change in the electorate's breakdown could yield dramatic consequences at the House level (for instance, a boost in black turnout could be all Democrats need in at least half-a-dozen GOP-held seats), and any GOP uptick in the final days could save the party a large number of seats. Indeed, many of the Republican incumbents who have become endangered only over the past few weeks will stand or fall together.

If Democrats have a strong wind behind their back on Tuesday, we should expect a shockingly high number of races that are currently rated likely Republican to fall to the opposition. If turnout is lower than expected among sporadic voters or if late deciders break towards the GOP, the party's second and third tier races might weather the storm.

For now, all indications point to the former scenario. Of the 14 rating changes I am introducing today, 11 favor Democrats, and yet another GOP-held seat migrates to the lean Democratic column, bringing the grand total to a staggering eighteen. (By contrast, only three Dem-held seats are rated lean or likely take-over.) To make matters worse, a number of Republican incumbents who were only recently added to these ratings (let alone to a competitive category) are being moved to the lean retention column. Who would have thought just a month ago that SC-01, TX-07, TX-10 and VA-05 would look like battlegrounds in the week-end heading into the election?

This, more than anything else, is what should terrify Republicans. The political environment is putting seats in play that would never even be mentioned in any other year. If the GOP does not pull off a strong ground game over the next... 72 hours, its House caucus risks being decimated.

Safe Democratic: 207
Likely/Safe Democratic: 230
Lean/Likely/Safe Democratic: 245
Toss-ups: 26
Lean/Likely/Safe Republican: 164
Likely/Safe Republican: 150
Safe Republican: 126

---

History of House ratings:

October: Can Democrats keep up the 2006 parallel?
August: Will the DCCC succeed in putting the top tier in play?
June: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York
February: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep clear edge
November: How many more Republican retirements?
October: Democrats feel better as GOP faces worrisome retirements
September: Democrats poised to keep majority

Republican seats, Likely take-over (7)

AK-AL (Rep. Young, polls, last updated November 1st): Any hope Rep. Don Young might have had to overcome the ethical scandals that surround him and survive Tuesday's vote evaporated with Ted Stevens' conviction. The state GOP's corruption troubles and Young's ruined reputation were once again cast in the spotlight. Ethan Berkowitz has been leading Young for months, and Democrats are poised to win their first federal race in this state since the 1970s.
AZ-01 (open, last updated October 25th): No one gives Republican candidate Sydney Hay much of a chance to beat former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in this open seat, but the DCCC is taking no chances. It has already poured $1.7 million in the district, including a $338,000 buy this week. The DCCC's continuous spending suggests that their internal numbers aren't showing the easy pick-up that has come to be expected, but those $1.7 million spent labeling Hay a "corporate lobbyist" should close any door the Republican might have had.
IL-11 (Open, polls, last updated October 25th): Debbie Halvorson was once one of the Democrats' biggest recruits, while Republicans did not even have a candidate well into 2008. But eventual GOP nominee Martin Ozinga proved surprisingly resilient in a district Democrats were expected to pick up easily. Not anymore. The Democrats' surge over the past month has erased the GOP's hopes of pulling off come-back victories in districts like this, and the DCCC's money (more than $1 million) is helping Halvorson close the deal. Independent polls and private Democratic surveys find Halvorson pulling ahead.
FL-24 (Rep. Feeney, last updated November 1st): Rep. Tom Feeney was caught in the worst position a politician can find himself in: He was so damaged by reports of his ties to Jack Abramoff that he simply had to air an ad apologizing - but in so doing he might very well have sealed his fate. Even Republicans no longer believe Feeney can survive, and the NRCC has not spent a dime on his behalf; Democrats, meanwhile, have spent more than $1,1 million and have ensured that the Abramoff-funded Scotland trip remains on voters' minds with some hard-hitting ads of their own. The only poll we have seen of late has been a DCCC internal showing Kosmas leading by 23%; that might have seemed excessive, but the GOP's failure to release a counter-poll reveals just as much about the state of the race as the DCCC's poll.
NY-13 (open, last updated October 5th): Who knew Republicans had it in them to make this race even more chaotic? Just all the spring and summer confusion seemed to have given way to a slow wait for Democrat McMahon's certain victory, a new chapter was written in the civil war of Staten Island's Republican Party when GOP nominee Staniere squashed an attempt to grant him a judicial nomination to perhaps pave the way for Rep. Fossella's return on the ballot.
NY-25 (open, last updated October 5th): An open seat in a blue-leaning district is a gift to Democrats in a year in which they are favored. Note that the DCCC has stepped in and spent more than $100,000 in ads so far; should that be taken as a sign that the race could be tighter than we are thinking or as confirmation that Democrats have enough money for insurance policies? The only potential danger for Democratic candidate Maffei right now is his connection with Rep. Rangel.
VA-11 (open, polls, last updated October 5th): The situation is the same as in NY-25, and the DCCC has spent some money here as well.

Democratic seats, Likely take-over (1)

FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney, last updated October 18th): Rep. Tim Mahoney was elected to replace Mike Foley two years ago - and now he himself is embroiled in a massive sex scandal that includes charges of pay-off and harassment. Pelosi has called for an investigation, Republicans are having a field day and Mahoney’s re-election prospects have fallen so low that even the NRCC moved out of the district: they don’t even see the need to spend any money to ensure the seat falls in their lap. A recent GOP poll had Tom Rooney leading by more than 20%, confirming that this race is over.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (11)

CO-04 (Rep. Musgrave, polls, last updated October 5th): Musgrave consistently under-performs her district's Republican lean, and she holds the dubious distinction of being the 2006 House candidate to win with the lowest share of the vote (45%). Now, Democrats are heavily targeting her, and so are independent groups. Musgrave has been targeted by the largest outside expenditure of any district: the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund just bought a stunning $650,000 worth of air time. A late August independent poll and a mid-September Democratic poll found Democratic nominee Betsy Markey leading Musgrave outside of the MoE - never a good place for an incumbent to be.
FL-08 (Rep. Keller, last updated October 25th): It looks like Rep. Keller will be the victim of the Democrats' gains in the Sunshine State, and Obama's ground game risks overpowering the GOP machine in this Orlando-based district. In fact, Democrats just gained an edge in voter registration in the district, reversing the GOP's 14,000 voter advantage just two years ago. Add that to Keller's own weakness (he only received 55% of the vote against a weak opponent in the primary), and you get an explosive combination. The DCCC just released a poll showing its candidate Allen Grayson leading by 11%, even though they have curiously still not spent a dime in the district. Keller quickly replied with a survey of his own showing him leading 47% to 43%, but you know things are bad for an incumbent when he feels compelled to release such weak numbers.
MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg, last updated October 25th): Joe Knollenberg is a well-established incumbent who would be very difficult to beat in a neutral environment, but the Democratic wave is now threatening to submerge him. Not only did the incumbent receive a terrible blow when McCain abruptly pulled out of Michigan, undercutting Knollenberg's hopes of relying on the GOP's presidential ground game to turn out his own base, but the NRCC has canceled all of the $600,000 it had planned on spending on his behalf. By contrast, the DCCC has already spent $1,6 million on behalf of Democratic candidate Gary Peters and the Obama campaign is still organizing in the state. A just-released DCCC poll has Peters ahead by 10%; that might be overstating his lead, but the NRCC's decision to pull out of the race confirms that even the GOP thinks the race is drifting away.
MN-03 (Open, last updated October 18th): The battle between Ashwin Madia and Erik Paulsen was shaping up to be highly competitive, but an open seat in a swing district is prime pick-up territory for Democrats in a year whose fundamentals favor them - particularly after the past month. Complicating Paulsen’s task further is that the NRCC canceled a lot of the money it was going to spend on his behalf to invest it in neighboring MN-06 instead; on the other hand, the DCCC has already spent more than $1.2 million dollars! Without national help, Paulsen will be swamped by Democratic attacks.
NC-08 (Rep. Hayes, polls, last updated October 25th): What a difference two years make. In 2006, Democrat Larry Kissell was pleading for the DCCC to invest some resources in his race against Rep. Robin Hayes. The DCCC left him in the cold, and Kissell lost by about 300 votes. This year, the DCCC is not committing the same mistake: they have already poured in $1.7 million, while the NRCC has invested nothing. Kissell is also benefiting from Democratic gains in North Carolina. And the expected boost in African-American turnout (as testified by the early voting numbers) should make a huge difference in this district, which has a substantial African-American population. As if this was not enough, both an internal DCCC poll and a SUSA survey showed Kissell with a large lead over Hayes over the past month.
NM-01 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): GOP nominee Darren White is one of the Republicans' strongest recruits this cycle, and it is unlucky for him he is running in a year whose fundamentals favor Democrats. John Kerry only won the district by 3% in 2004 but Barack Obama could win it by a comfortable margin, and that should help Democratic nominee Martin Heinrich who already appears to have a slight edge. This race remains highly competitive, however, and the DCCC is pouring in hundreds of thousands of dollars already.
NV-03 (Rep. Porter, polls, last updated October 5th): Porter recently decided that it was urgent for him to release an internal poll which shows him leading within the margin error and at a dismal 41%. That tells you just about all you need to know on Porter's vulnerability. The incumbent is being helped by Freedom's Watch, and that money will come in very handy to strike back against the DCCC's attack ads.
NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl, last updated October 11th): Republicans currently hold six seats in the Empire State, and Democrats have been targeting four of them - including three in upstate New York. Of these four seats, NY-29 is the only one featuring an incumbent. Rep. Kuhl barely survived the 2006 cycle, and Democrat Eric Massa is back for a rematch. It is never easy to topple an incumbent, but New York's Republican Party is in disarray and Kuhl looks highly vulnerable. Three polls released over the past week (one by SUSA, one by Research 2000 and one released by Democrats) show Massa leading outside of the margin of error, with Kuhl in the low 40s. That's not a good place to be for an incumbent. Add to that the DCCC's commitment to fund this race, and Democrats have a slight edge.
OH-15 (Open, last updated October 11th): If the political environment didn't favor Democrats, Republicans would be very well positioned to defy the odds and retain this district. Mary Jo Kilroy hasn't been a strong campaigner (she was favored to pick-up the seat in 2006 but fell short in one of the GOP's most unexpected victories of the cycle) and Republican state Sen. Stivers is a strong recruit. But this is not a neutral year, and any Republican would face an uphill fight in an open seat in a swing district like OH-15. A recent SUSA poll and an internal DCCC poll find Kilroy leading by single-digits, and that is where the race should be on paper as well: Kilroy underperforming but able to hold on to a slight lead. Add to that the DCCC's commitment to win this seat over (they have already spent more than $1 million dollar!), and the picture looks even bleaker for the GOP.
OH-16 (Open, last updated October 5th): Democrats were hoping this would be a fairly easy pick-up, but Republican state Sen. Schuring has stayed alive in a district that tilts Republican at the presidential level. A recent SUSA poll showed that state Sen. Boccieri is ahead, but he has yet to close the deal. The DCCC has already spent more than $800,000 attacking Schuring, and that money could make the difference in absence of a GOP response.
PA-03 (Rep. English, last updated November 1st): Democratic challenger Kathy Dahlkemper was always considered a good recruit by Democrats. but this was never supposed to be a top-tier race. But we got our first taste of how vulnerable Rep. Phil English was when the NRCC chose to make one of its very first investments here. Unfortunately for Republicans, that did not prevent the DCCC from significantly outspending its counterpart (and pouring in a total of $1.5 million over the past 6 weeks). Pushed by the Democratic wind, Dahlkemper is in a strong position to knock off the incumbent Republican. An English victory would certainly not be shocking, but the race now narrowly tilts Democratic.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (2)

PA-11 (Rep. Kanjorski, last updated October 5th): Kanjorski should not be in troube. He is an entrenched Democratic incumbent whose district is not particularly conservative running in a year that is shaping up to be a strong one for Democrats. But the fact that he has not faced a competitive challenge for years has weakened his hold on the district and it might already be too late for him to save himself. Lou Barletta, the very conservative Republican candidate, is leading in most polls - and an independent survey released in September found the incumbent at a truly dismal 35%. Kanjorski's only hope is to ride the DCCC's money to discredit Barletta and eek out a narrow victory; the DCCC has indeed been pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars for months now in attack ads against Barletta, and the most recent spots - hitting Barletta for supporting the privatization of Social Security - could be particularly damaging in this electoral climate. One important question is how the electorate will react to Kanjorski's leading role in crafting the bailout.
TX-22 (Rep. Lampson, last updated October 5th): Lampson's hope for survival rests in the parties' financial disparities - if the DCCC spends heavily on his behalf and the GOP fails to answer, could he survive in what is a very heavily conservative district? Unfortunately for Lampson, Freedom's Watch is ensuring a Republican presence on the air.

Republican seats, Toss-up (19)

AL-02 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): Bobby Bright is perhaps the only Democrat who could have made this heavily conservative district competitive - perhaps because he is not a Democrat to start with. But competitive it is! The Montgomery mayor will also be helped by the endorsement of an important Republican mayor from the district, and his financial situation is boosted by the DCCC's investment.
CA-04 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): This is a heavily Republican district, and the GOP candidate is an important figure in the state's conservative circles. But the ethical trouble of outgoing Rep. Doolittle have given Democrats an opening, and their candidate Charlie Brown has already introduced himself to the district's voters (he got 46% of the vote in 2006). The GOP thinks it built an advantage by using footage of Charlie Brown in military uniform at an anti-war rally, but recent surveys have found a dead heat, with internal polls for both campaigns finding their candidates holding the edge and an independent survey giving a slight edge to Brown.
CT-04 (Rep. Shays, last updated October 5th): As expected, this race is proving contentious. The only available poll shows the two tied, and they are on equal footing financially, and the DCCC's money is being outmatched by a big investment on Shay's behalf (more than $500,000) by the National Association of Realtors PAC.
FL-21 (Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, polls, last updated October 5th): An early September SUSA poll found Democratic challenger Raul Martinez with a tiny lead, removing any doubt that this Southern Florida district is a prime pick-up opportunity. Diaz-Balart's hope for survival rests on the high negatives Martinez earned during his controversial tenures as the mayor of Hialeah. Diaz-Balart's ads have accused Martinez of using his office for financial gain and have hinted at his involvement in drug trafficking! Meanwhile, an independent Cuban-American group is hitting Diaz-Balart for adopting too strict a line on US-Cuba relations, and Patriot Majority is running spots on Martinez's behalf.
FL-25 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, polls, last updated October 5th): The dynamics of the race are very similar to those of FL-21, as the second of the Diaz-Balart brothers also faces a challenge to his hold on Cuban-American votes. Polling has shown the race is tight, but the main difference plays to the Republican's disadvantage: Democratic candidate Joe Garcia isn't as controversial a figure as Raul Martinez, and that gives the GOP fewer openings.
ID-01 (Rep. Sali, polls, last updated October 25th): That GOP Rep. Bill Sali is endangered in a district Bush won with 69% of the vote in 2004 is entirely due the incumbent's personality and extremism. Sali is despised by much of Idaho's Republican establishment, and he is best known for incidents such as these, in which he disturbed his opponent's chief of staff's interview with a local journalist with heckling and... bunny ears. Democratic internal polls have shown a competitive race for months, and a recent SUSA poll has Democratic candidate Walt Minnick leading by 6%. A sure sign that this race is highly competitive: The NRCC is pouring significant amount of money to defend Sali. Who would have thought the GOP's meager fundraising would have to be spent defending a seat in Idaho?
IL-10 (Rep. Kirk)
IN-03 (Rep. Souder, last updated November 1st): This is not a district Republicans should worry about for a single minute. George Bush got 68% of the vote in 2004 - but Rep. Mark Souder only prevailed by 8% in 2006 against an underfunded opponent. This year, Democratic attorney Michael Montagano is attracting more attention and he is being helped by national Democrats. Both congressional committees have engaged in the district over the past few weeks, with the DCCC outspending its counterpart 2:1. It would be a true upset for Souder to lose, but two recent polls confirm that the race is now a dead heat and Montagano from Barack Obama's remarkable ground game in the Hoosier State. Who would have thought a Democratic presidential candidate could help down-the-ballot candidate in such a conservative district?
LA-04 (Open, last updated October 5th): The primary was only held on October 4th (it was postponed because of Hurricane Ike) and the nominee of both parties will be decided in a runoff. The good news for Democrats is that Paul Carmouche, a DA with strong name recognition, is almost assured of winning his party's nod on November 4th as he got 48% of the vote yesterday; the Republican primary should be more contentious, as the top two candidates came within a few percentage points of each other. The general election will be held on December 6th, which should help Carmouche overcome the district's conservative lean.
MD-01 (Open, last updated October 18th): The GOP primary between Andy Harris and Rep. Gilchrest appears to have left deep wounds that has given Democratic nominee Frank M. Kratovil a chance at a major upset in a very conservative district. Democratic internal polls are showing the race is a dead heat, and the GOP is not moving to contradict that. At the end of September, the DCCC decided to invest in the district - and they have already spent more than $900,000! Meanwhile, Harris is being helped by Club for Growth, which has spent more than $300,000 on his behalf. Democrats picking-up MD-01 would be the sign of a big blue wave.
MI-07 (Rep. Walberg, polls, last updated October 5th): Not only are polls showing a tight race in this conservative-leaning district, but McCain's sudden and unexpected decision to pull out of Michigan leaves a void in the Republican ground game in the Wolverine State - and that could prove a huge headache for the state's down-ballot Republicans.
MO-09 (Open, polls, last updated October 18th): This is one of those few districts the NRCC has invested in. That is both a sign that the party is worried about losing this conservative-leaning district and a sign that they think it is salvageable, putting the race right in the toss-up category. But the DCCC is making sure to significantly outspend the NRCC ($400,000 to $100,000). A further problem for Republicans: their nominee Blaine Luetkemeyer finished September with a stunningly low $43,000. That means that Luetkemeyer absolutely needs the national help he is getting just to stay financially viable.
MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann, last updated October 25th): It is too early to tell whether Michelle Bachmann's anti-Americanism rant on MSNBC will prove to be her macaca moment, but it has seriously endangered her reelection chances. Two polls released over the past week showed Bachmann trailing within the margin of error, a remarkable turn of events in a race that until two weeks ago was considered to be relatively safe.And you can't accuse Bachmann of backing down easily. After standing her ground in the immediate aftermath of her comments, Bachmann is now airing an in which she asks voters to understand that “I may not always get my words right, but I know that my heart is right." Far from apologizing, Bachmann repeats her argument that liberalism stands in opposition to American values. "We could embrace government as the answer to our problems," she says. "Or we can choose freedom and liberty."
NJ-03 (Open, last updated October 5th): Along with the two Ohio open seats, IL-11 and NJ-07, this is an open seat Democrats were once hoping they would win comfortably - but the only polls we have seen point to a dead heat, and the DCCC has already invested hundreds of thousands of dollars. One key factor here is the candidates' own financial situation. Democratic candidate Adler has a significant fundraising advantage, and it is unlikely his Republican opponent can pull this out unless he benefits from the NRCC's help. This race could soon move back to the lean take-over column if the NRCC does not invest in the district.
NJ-07 (Open, last updated October 5th): The situation in this Dem-leaning district parallels that of NJ-03: an open seat it should be winning more easily that the DCCC is pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars in. Here again, spending disparities could make a difference: this is a very expensive district to play in because it falls in the New York City market, and that could prove all Democrats need to eek out a victory. However, Republican hopes rest on the high negatives Linda Stender earned from her 2006 race, when the GOP had played on the "pun" Stender/Spender to tag her as a "big spender." The Republicans are using the same strategy this year in a childish but effective ad campaign.
NM-02 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): The Democratic candidate, wealthy oil executive (and self-funder) Harry Teague, looks surprisingly strong. A recent independent poll even found him with a narrow lead. Republican Ed Tinsley, who also has ties to the oil industry and who is also self-funding part of his campaign, is not able to rely on the district's strong Republican lean because Teague has a base of conservative supporters from his days as the county commissioner of a Republican area. The DCCC is helping Teague and has already invested more than a quarter-million dollars.
OH-01 (Rep. Chabot, polls, last updated October 5th): Chabot barely survived in 2006, and he has just as difficult a race to deal with this year. More than in most House races, the result could depend on Barack Obama's coattails. This district has a substantial African-American population, and Obama's ground game will thus heavily target sporadic black voters here; any increase in the share of black voters would naturally boost House candidate Driehaus.
WA-08 (Rep. Reichert, polls, last updated October 25th): Rematches tend to be the most brutal races, and the second match-up between Rep. Reichert and Darcy Burner is no exception. The latest salvos include both camps questioning their opponent's college degree, with the conservative Seattle Times taking care of the (now discredited) hit job on the Democrat. That said, Burner has significantly improved her poll numbers over the past two weeks; after two Democratic surveys found her ahead, SUSA and Research 2000 both confirmed that she had erased Reichert's lead.
WY-AL (Open, last updated November 1st): Republicans were hoping that unpopular incumbent Barbara Cubin's retirement would guarantee that this very conservative district stays in their hand, but repeat candidate Democrat Gary Trauner is proving to be just as competitive as he was in 2006. Polls are showing Trauner and Republican nominee Cynthia Lummis are locked in a dead heat, though one worry for Democrats is that most undecided voters are Republicans. At the very least, Democrats have forced the NRCC to spend some of its limited resources in this district instead of in more obviously vulnerable seats. (The NRCC has spent about $350,000; the DCCC more than $800,000.)

Democratic seats, Toss-up (7)

AL-05 (Open, last updated October 5th): Democrats thought that they had built a slight edge in the toughest open seat they are defending, but Republicans are now going all out against Parker Griffith. GOP candidate Wayne Parker has obtained an internal peer review from Griffith's radiation oncologist days. The document charges that Griffith under-radiated patients at his cancer treatment center in order to charge them more money; Parker is running an ad devoted to the issue, and Democrats have been forced on the defensive.
GA-08 (Rep. Marshall, last updated October 5th): How will the politics of the bailout impact Marshall's reelection race? He is one of the rare vulnerable incumbents to have voted "yes" on both House votes, and he quickly went up with an ad explaining his decision. That is a clear sign that Marshall is worried his opponent (who came out in opposition to the bailout, though only after the first House vote) could make this into a powerful campaign issue.
KS-02 (Rep. Boyda, polls)
LA-06 (Rep. Cazayoux, last updated October 18th): Rep. Cazayoux became one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents when fellow Democrat Michael Jackson announced he would mount an independent bid. In this Republican a district, a Democrat needs to mobilize the African-Amerian vote, and Jackson’s candidacy threatens to divide a key constituency. Yet, Democrats have released two internal polls over the past few months showing Cazayoux crushing GOP candidate Bill Cassidy, with Jackson in single digits. I have trouble believing that two Democratic candidates could receive 30% more than the Republican nominee in a district that gave Bush 59% of the vote in 2004, but the GOP has not released an internal poll of their own. I might not (yet) moving LA-06 to lean Democratic, but it is clear that Cassidy does not have the edge I thought he would.
NH-01 (Rep. Shea-Porter, polls, last updated October 5th): Former Rep. Jeb Bradley narrowly won the Republican primary and earned a rematch against Carol Shea-Porter. Recent polls have shown a horse race, with Shea-Porter trailing in UNH and leading by 1% in Research 2000. The outcome of this election will probably be decided by whether the GOP brand has improved among New Hampshire independents over the past two years. The DCCC has already poured in nearly $700,000 to help Shea-Porter.
PA-12 (Rep. Murtha, last updated November 1st): The situation is getting worse by the day for Jack Murtha ever since he described Western Pennsylvania as a "racist" area. The comments have attracted a huge amount of attention in the local media, and the GOP is moving to make sure that every voter is aware of the controversy by Tuesday. A bombshell exploded today as it was revealed that the NRCC had bought $465,000 worth of air time to use against Murtha, guaranteeing that his comments continue to receive one play. Given that the NRCC has had to pull hte plug on a number of endangered Republican incumbents, for them to invest this much money in this seat means that they are very confident that Murtha's comments have been a game changer.
WI-8 (Rep. Kagen, polls, last updated October 5th): This is the first Democratic-held district that the NRCC invested in, a sure sign that the GOP believes this is a true opportunity. The DCCC is helping Kagen, but they have not released their own polls of the race - something the GOP has been willing to do, pointing to a dead heat.

Republican seats, Lean retention (12)

AZ-03 (Rep. Shadegg, last updated October 5th): Another stunning no one expected to be competitive this late in the cycle, but the DCCC's unexpected decision to dump more than $200,000 in an ad buy against Shadegg suggests that the veteran Republican incumbent is more endangered than commonly thought.
KY-02 (Open, polls, last updated October 18th): This seat was the most chaotic of the cycle until NY-13 came around, and Democrats were excited that they had an excellent chance in this conservative a district. Polls taken throughout the spring and the summer suggested that state Senator Boswell had a slight lead. Yet, this is one the rare districts that have moved towards the GOP over the past few weeks. (SUSA has GOP candidate state Senator Guthrie gaining for the second month in a row to jump to a 9% lead, and the Boswell campaign’s internal numbers have the Democrat’s lead falling from 7% to 1%, with a lot of undecideds. This is an open seat in a conservative area, making it likely that undecideds would break towards Guthrie.) One possible explanation for Guthrie gains’ is that the DCCC’s involvement here has backfired: the committee’s attack ads were blasted as untrustworthy by the local media, putting Boswell on the defensive.
NE-02 (Rep. Terry, last updated October 11th): Democrats have been mentioning this race for a while, but this is conservative enough a district for a Republican incumbent to be given the benefit of the doubt. But the DCCC's unexpected decision to invest significant resources in the race - they have already spent more than $200,000 - puts it on the list of competitive races, especially when you combine the DCCC's investment to Obama's efforts in the state (the presidential campaign has opened 2 field offices in Omaha, forcing Sarah Palin to come and campaign). Democrats are making a rare push to organize Omaha, and that puts NE-02 in play.
NV-02 (Rep. Heller, last updated October 11th): Nevada Democrats are riding the momentum of big registration gains, while Republicans are being weighed down by the unpopularity of their governor, not to mention the GOP's national difficulties. That gives an opening to Jill Derby, who is back for a rematch in this conservative district. An independent poll recently found Rep. Heller leading but under 50% and in single-digits, so the race is certainly competitive.
NY-26 (Open, last updated November 1st): While the race remains highly competitive, we can now say that Republican candidate Chris Lee has a slight advantage. Alice Kryzan's unexpected victory in the Democratic primary led hurts her party's efforts to win the seat, and, despite the DCCC spending almost $2 million in this seat, a recent independent poll shows Lee grabbing a double-digit lead. That might be overstating his advantage, as New York Republicans are an endangered species, but Democrats are no longer as optimistic as they were in the spring.
OH-02 (Rep. Schmidt, last updated October 5th): Schmidt maintains a lead in recent polling, but she remains under 50% - dangerous territory for any incumbent. This confirms that she has been unable to solidify her position in what is a very conservative district. Yet, this is her first time she is running in a presidential year, and McCain's coattails might help. This is one district in which a third party candidacy could affect the final results.
SC-01 (Rep. Brown, last updated November 1st): Republican incumbents in districts with a substantial African-American population are in grave danger of falling to the boost in black turnout that we have been already seeing in states like North Carolina and Georgia. This race was nowhere on our radar's screen at the beginning of October, and Rep. Brown certainly remains favored. But an upset by (openly gay) Democrat Linda Ketner is looking increasingly plausible. The DCCC has only invested limited resources in the district ($70,000), but that could be due to Ketner's ability to spend her own money.
TX-07 (Rep. Culberson, last updated November 1st): The DCCC might not have spent anything in this district, but that is not necessarily because they don't believe it is competitive: Democratic challenger Michael Skelly is a wealthy business executive who has donated a lot of money to his own campaign and he entered October with more than $1 million of cash on hand. That might not be enough by itself to knock off a Republican incumbent in a conservative district, but it certainly contributes to making the race competitive. And while Bush obtained a huge percentage of the vote here in 2004, Texas Republicans are worried that their numbers will deflate now that their former Governor no longer is on the ballot.
TX-10 (Rep. McCaul, last updated November 1st): This district might be ever so slightly less Republican than TX-07, but Bush got more than 60% of the vote in 2000 and in 2004 - underscoring just how difficult it will be for Democrats to score a shocking upset. But Democratic candidate and lawyer Larry Joe Doherty has raised enough money to be a credible contender and contest the district even without the DCCC"s help. Until we know the post-Bush state of Texas Republicans, Rep. McCaul has a target on his back and a Research 2000 poll released this week showed the incumbent leading by only 4% - and well under 50%.
VA-02 (Rep. Drake, last updated October 5th): A recent internal poll for the Nye campaign suggests that Drake isn't as safe as the GOP was hoping she would be, but she does retain an edge. Obama's ground game in the Old Dominion could be very helpful for Nye to score an upset here.
VA-05 (Rep. Goode, last updated November 1st): Rep. Goode is so entrenched in this district that he has run (and won) as a Democrat, an independent and a Republican. Now, he is finally facing a difficult re-election race in a state that is quickly shifting away from the GOP. The DCCC has invested more than $600,000 in the district over the course of three weeks, confirming that we should keep a close eye on this district. A victory by Democratic challenger Tom Perriello would no longer be a shocker.
WV-02 (Rep. Capito, last updated November 1st): Capito is a perennial target in a state that remains Democratic at the local level, but the incumbent did not seem particularly vulnerable as the year started. The DCCC has made a late investment in the district, and Hillary Clinton has traveled to support Democratic candidate Anne Barth. That it no longer looks like Barack Obama will be crushed in the district should prevent Capito from riding presidential coattails.

Democratic seats, Lean retention (4)

AZ-05 (Rep. Mitchell)
CA-11 (Rep. McNerney, last updated October 18th): When Rep. McNerney picked up the seat in 2006, the GOP was determined to make sure he served one term in what is a Republican district. But former state Rep. Dean Andal has not proved as strong a candidate as Republicans were hoping he would be. While he ends up in a competitive position financially as of the end of September, McNerney outspent him 8:1 in the second quarter, which allowed him to solidify his position - especially when you add the almost $1 million of television ads NARPAC is spending on McNerney’s behalf. Meanwhile, a recent SUSA poll gave McNerney an 11% edge.
PA-04 (Rep. Altmire, last updated October 5th): This is a high priority district for the GOP, but the fact that the DCCC hasn't spent a dime to help Altmire for now is a good sign for the incumbent. A mid-September internal poll for the campaign of former Rep. Hart showed her trailing by 5%. That certainly means that Altmire is endangered, but for him to have a narrow edge in a Republican poll suggests he starts off with an edge.
PA-10 (Rep. Carney, polls, last updated October 5th): This conservative district is one of the Republicans top targets, but the Democratic incumbent starts with a narrow advantage - as confirmed by the most recent polls. It is in districts such as these that Democratic gains in recent weeks could make themselves felt by immunizing Democrats against Republican attacks. Furthermore, the DCCC knows that Carney is endangered and is pouring in hundreds of thousands of dollars that the RNCC obviously cannot match.

Republican seats, likely retention (23)

AL-03 (Rep. Rogers)
CA-03 (Rep. Lungren, last updated October 18th): In what is a rematch of the 2006 race, GOP Rep. Dan Lungren has not been very worried about this re-election race (he only raised $190,000 in the third quarter) but Democrat Bill Durston no longer appears like the long-shot he was just two weeks ago. An internal Durston poll showed him within 3% of the incumbent; Lungren replied with two internal polls showing him with big leads - but under 50%.
CA-26 (Rep. Dreier, last updated October 18th): Rep. David Dreier has been in office for 28 years in a GOP-leaning district. Should that not be enough to guarantee his re-election? Perhaps in another year, but Dreier is one of many Republicans who should be very careful in the coming weeks. Russ Warner is a credible enough candidate that he could be in a position of making the race unexpectedly competitive if there is a strong blue wave.
CA-46 (Rep. Rohrabacher, last updated October 18th): Rep. Dana Rohrabacher was nowhere on our radar screen, but Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook appears to have a chance at scoring a big upset. While we have gotten no hard numbers from the race, a Capitol Weekly article reveals that Republican internals have the race within the margin of error! Cook’s third quarter fundraising was good, but she ended September with only $30,284. She will need the DCCC’s help to make this any more competitive.
CA-50 (Rep. Bilbray, last updated October 18th): While conservative, this district is not as overwhelmingly Republican than some of the others Democrats are now eying (Bush got 55% of the vote in 2004). Rep. Brian Bilbray got elected in a highly competitive special election in 2006 after the DCCC spent millions on his behalf. Now, there is some buzz forming around Democratic candidate Nick Leibham, who recently released a poll showing Bilbray leading by only 2%. Bilbray quickly responded with an internal survey that had him leading 48% to 35%, a more comfortable margin but another sign that Bilbray isn’t as safe as we thought. The race remains a difficult one for Democrats, but Leibham outraised Bilbray in the third quarter and he could pull off an upset if the DCCC joins in the fun.
FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan, last updated October 5th): Independent polls show Buchanan with a large lead over Jennings in this rematch of a controversial 2006 race. Complicating matters for Jennings is that Jan Schneider, the Democratic nominee in 2002 and 2004, will be on the ballot as an independent. She is expected to draw a substantial enough share of the vote to make the electoral math very difficult for Jennings to pull off.
FL-15 (open)
FL-18 (Rep. Ros-Lehtinen, polls, last updated October 5th): The third of the three Southern Florida districts, FL-18 is also the least competitive. Democratic candidate Annette Taddeo is a favorite of the netroots, but Ros-Lehtinen has simply shown little sign of vulnerability for now. The latest polls have her ahead by commanding margins.
IA-04 (Rep. Latham, last updated October 25th): Rep. Latham is sitting in one of the least Republican districts held by his party, and that's not a good district to hold in a heavily Democratic year. Becky Greenwald is now in a position to score one of the year's biggest upsets, just as her party shockingly picked-up IA-02 out of nowhere two years ago. A just-released Research 2000 poll shows Latham leading by only 5%, and Barack Obama's strength in Iowa could further boost down-the-ballot Democratic totals in the state.
IL-06 (Rep. Roskam)
IL-18 (Open, last updated October 5th): Aaron Schock is on his way to becoming the youngest members of the 111th Congress. An internal poll for his campaign finds him ahead by 30%, and, while that might be an exaggerated lead, Democrats have not released an internal poll of their own that would contradict those results. Perhaps the best sign of Democratic desperation came when Democratic candidate Callahan released a remake of the Daisy ad.
LA-07 (Rep. Boustany)
MO-06 (Rep. Graves, last updated November 1st): This has perhaps been the most disappointing race for Democrats this year. Former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes was one of their top recruits, but as other Democrats got more and more competitive, Barnes faded away. Perhaps this was due to Rep. Graves' quick hit on his opponent: his spring ad attacking Barnes' San Fransisco values provoked much controversy, will surely be remembered as one of the most memorable ads of the year and might have discredited Barnes. SUSA's latest poll has Rep. Graves jumping to a shocking 18% lead, and, in the surest sign that Graves has gotten himself out of trouble, the DCCC has dropped out of the district for the past two weeks. All of this said, if there is one year in which a Democratic challenger can beat all the odds and unexpectedly prevail, it's this one - so don't completely rule out an upset.
NC-05 (Rep. Foxx, last updated November 1st): It seems insane to put this district on our radar screen, and frankly, it is insane. But in the current environment, no Republican incumbent who is facing a credible Democratic challenger can be entirely safe, particularly in a state like North Carolina where the electorate has so dramatically shifted blue.
NC-10 (Rep. McHenry, last updated October 18th): Rep. McHenry has been mentioned as a potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent for months, but in a district that Bush won with 67% of the vote in 2004, a GOP candidate is allowed the benefit of the doubt. Yet, Democrats believe their candidate Daniel Johnson has a chance at offsetting the district’s Republican balance. Given how much progress Democrats appear to have made in the state, that is certainly possible. Johnson has been added to the Red to Blue program, and he will need DCCC spending to make this really competitive.
NJ-05 (Rep. Garrett, last updated October 25th): Not that Rep. Garrett is sitting in an overwhelmingly Republican district (Bush got 57% of the vote in 2004, but only 52% in 2000), but he was not expected to face that competitive a challenge this year. Yet, Democratic gains have been the strongest in the Northeast, and that has put this seat on the Democrats' radar screen. Garrett's opponent is progressive candidate and netroots favorite Rabbi Dennis Shulman, a credible enough contender to benefit if voters are looking to reject Garrett. A just-released Research 2000 poll has a 7% race, and Garrett is feeling nervous enough about his chances to have released one of the most vicious ads we have seen this year, juxtaposing his opponent to Ahmadinejad.
OH-07 (Open)
OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette)
PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach)
PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
SC-02 (Rep. Wilson, last updated October 18th): This race is even more of a long-shot than SC-01 because Democratic candidate Rob Miller does not have the financial advantage enjoyed by Linda Ketner, but Rep. Joe Wilson should nonetheless be careful. This is a district where an increased share in black turnout could have a big impact, as a quarter of the district’s residents is African-American.
VA-10 (Rep. Wolf)

Democratic seats, likely retention (16)

AZ-08 (Rep. Giffords, polls, last updated October 18th): Republicans had high hope for state Senate President Tim Bee, but Rep. Giffords looks too strong for the GOP to defeat in this Democratic year - not to mention that Giffords has been one of the strongest fundraisers among endangered Democrats. Now, the DCCC has canceled the rest of its TV reservations after spending more than $300,000 helping Giffords, a sure sign that national Democrats feel confident about Giffords’ prospects. The NRCC cannot come to Bee’s help, meaning that the two candidates are now on their own - and Giffords had far more cash on hand at the end of September than her opponent.
CT-05 (Rep. Murphy)
GA-12 (Rep. Barrow): Republican John Stone never caught fire in a district that tilts narrowly Democratic. Barrow barely survived in 2006, but he has had two more years to entrench himself since then.
KS-03 (Rep. Moore): There isn't much action in this heavily conservative district that the GOP has been looking.
IL-08 (Rep. Bean)
IN-09 (Rep. Hill, polls, last updated October 11th): Republicans have not been able to gain as much traction as in past years for what is the fourth straight match-up between Baron Hill and Mike Sodrel. Hill won in 2002 and 2006, Sodrel won in 2004. Barack Obama's unexpected strength in the Hoosier State has undercut the GOP's hope that presidential coattails would carry Sodrel through the finish line as they did in 2004, not to mention that Hill will benefit from Obama's strong ground game while the McCain campaign has spent little time organizing Indiana. Recent independent polls have found Hill leading by double-digits.
IL-14 (Rep. Foster)
IN-08 (Rep. Ellsworth)
NH-02 (Rep. Hodes)
KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth, last updated November 1st): What was expected to be one of the hottest races of the 2008 cycle has turned out into an easy re-election campaign for Rep. Yarmuth. Anne Northup, the incumbent who Yarmuth narrowly defeated in 2006, is poised to suffer her third high-profile defeat in as many years (she also lost the GOP's gubernatorial nomination in 2007). Recent SUSA polls show Yarmuth with a wide lead, and the DCCC has not bothered investing a dime in the district. Given how much money Democrats have, would they not have moved in this race if they thought Yarmuth was endangered?
MN-01 (Rep. Walz, last updated October 5th): Walz leads by 18% in an internal poll released by his opponent. Enough said.
MS-01 (Rep. Childers, last updated November 1st): Travis Childers won a high-profile special election in May, and it is rare for voters to fire an incumbent after only a few months. The DCCC has poured in more than $200,000 over the past few months, while the NRCC has not engaged. Childers should be boosted further by the surge in African-American turnout that is manifesting itself in Southern states that propose early voting.
NY-20 (Rep. Gillibrand, last updated October 18th): Rep. Gillbrand has proved one of the strongest Democratic fundraisers, while Republican candidate Sandy Treadwell has been unable to get much traction - and is unlikely to do so without the NRCC’s help (which will not come). The district might be leaning Republican, but Gillbrand is strongly positioned to win re-election.
OH-18 (Rep. Space)
OR-05 (Open, last updated October 18th): Once one of the Republicans’ top pick-up opportunities, the district is rapidly drifting towards Democrats. Republican candidate Mike Erickson has been involved in a series of (abortion and ethics-related) scandals that have prevented him from gaining any traction and truly endangering state Senator Kirk Schrader, the Democratic nominee. The DCCC isn’t even spending any money on the district, a testament to how comfortable Democrats are feeling about the race. A recent SUSA poll had Schrader leading by 13%.
PA-08 (Rep. Murphy)
TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)

October 25th ratings

2008-10-27T11:02:00.001-07:00

Another week, another round of Democratic gains. Of the 11 races whose ratings I am changing here, 10 are moving in the Democrats' direction, and three new GOP-held seats are entering the lean takeover category for the first time (FL-08, MI-09 and NC-08). That brings the total of Republican districts in which Democrats are currently favored to sixteen, with 21 more GOP-held seats rated as toss-ups.

Needless to say, the GOP hasn't flirted with such dismal lows for decades.

The one race in which Republican prospects have improved is Rep. Jack "Western Pennsylvania is racist" Murtha's PA-12. That means that this is the second week in a row in which the one Republican gain is caused by self-inflicted Democratic wounds. Murtha's statements aren't as much of a game-changer as the Mahoney scandal, but they are in a sense more worrisome for Democrats since they have made what was previously a safe seat into a competitive contest.

Yet, the developments in PA-12 serve as a reminder of just how unlucky the GOP has been in most other Democratic-held seats. In December 2006, Republicans seemed assured that they would regain a number of the seats they had just lost, and their predictions sounded accurate: how could Democrats possibly TX-22, PA-10 or OH-18? They were also facing very difficult races in places like IN-09 and KY-03. Now, the GOP is on the run in most of these districts: We have gotten to the point at which a double digit lead for Reps. Hill and Yarmuth does not seem surprising, no one has talked about OH-18 for months, and even ultra-conservative TX-22 no longer looks like a slam dunk or Republicans.

One last thing to keep in mind is that there is a crucial difference between Senate and House ratings. Senate seats that are rated as "likely retention" will not switch over unless something huge happens; the rating is meant to indicate that a surprise is within the realm of the possible. We can predict, however, that there will be a few House seats that are rated as "likely retention" that will switch over. We simply do not have enough polling data and indications from the ground to figure out which GOP incumbents in that list are truly endangered: some will win by huge margins, others will fall.

Safe Democratic: 207
Likely/Safe Democratic: 226
Lean/Likely/Safe Democratic: 245
Toss-ups: 26
Lean/Likely/Safe Republican: 164
Likely/Safe Republican: 153
Safe Republican: 127

---

History of House ratings:

October: Can Democrats keep up the 2006 parallel?
August: Will the DCCC succeed in putting the top tier in play?
June: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York
February: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep clear edge
November: How many more Republican retirements?
October: Democrats feel better as GOP faces worrisome retirements
September: Democrats poised to keep majority

Republican seats, Likely take-over (5)

AZ-01 (open, last updated October 25th): No one gives Republican candidate Sydney Hay much of a chance to beat former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in this open seat, but the DCCC is taking no chances. It has already poured $1.7 million in the district, including a $338,000 buy this week. The DCCC's continuous spending suggests that their internal numbers aren't showing the easy pick-up that has come to be expected, but those $1.7 million spent labeling Hay a "corporate lobbyist" should close any door the Republican might have had.
IL-11 (Open, polls, last updated October 25th): Debbie Halvorson was once one of the Democrats' biggest recruits, while Republicans did not even have a candidate well into 2008. But eventual GOP nominee Martin Ozinga proved surprisingly resilient in a district Democrats were expected to pick up easily. Not anymore. The Democrats' surge over the past month has erased the GOP's hopes of pulling off come-back victories in districts like this, and the DCCC's money (more than $1 million) is helping Halvorson close the deal. Independent polls and private Democratic surveys find Halvorson pulling ahead.
NY-13 (open, last updated October 5th): Who knew Republicans had it in them to make this race even more chaotic? Just all the spring and summer confusion seemed to have given way to a slow wait for Democrat McMahon's certain victory, a new chapter was written in the civil war of Staten Island's Republican Party when GOP nominee Staniere squashed an attempt to grant him a judicial nomination to perhaps pave the way for Rep. Fossella's return on the ballot.
NY-25 (open, last updated October 5th): An open seat in a blue-leaning district is a gift to Democrats in a year in which they are favored. Note that the DCCC has stepped in and spent more than $100,000 in ads so far; should that be taken as a sign that the race could be tighter than we are thinking or as confirmation that Democrats have enough money for insurance policies? The only potential danger for Democratic candidate Maffei right now is his connection with Rep. Rangel.
VA-11 (open, polls, last updated October 5th): The situation is the same as in NY-25, and the DCCC has spent some money here as well.

Democratic seats, Likely take-over (1)

FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney, last updated October 18th): Rep. Tim Mahoney was elected to replace Mike Foley two years ago - and now he himself is embroiled in a massive sex scandal that includes charges of pay-off and harassment. Pelosi has called for an investigation, Republicans are having a field day and Mahoney’s re-election prospects have fallen so low that even the NRCC moved out of the district: they don’t even see the need to spend any money to ensure the seat falls in their lap. A recent GOP poll had Tom Rooney leading by more than 20%, confirming that this race is over.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (12)

AK-AL (Rep. Young, polls, last updated October 5th): There was much riding on the GOP primary between incumbent Rep. Don Young and Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell. Alaska is conservative, and Republicans would have had an edge had they been able to get rid of their ethically challenged incumbent. It took three weeks for all ballots to be counted in an inexplicably slow process. Don Young finally prevailed by a few hundred votes - and that was great news for Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz, who leads Young in all recent polls. Young is an important figure of Alaska politics, and he could still make a comeback - perhaps fueled by Palin's coattails. That said, Ted Stevens' trial will remind Alaska voters of the corruption problem of state Republicans, and that is bound to hurt Young.
CO-04 (Rep. Musgrave, polls, last updated October 5th): Musgrave consistently under-performs her district's Republican lean, and she holds the dubious distinction of being the 2006 House candidate to win with the lowest share of the vote (45%). Now, Democrats are heavily targeting her, and so are independent groups. Musgrave has been targeted by the largest outside expenditure of any district: the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund just bought a stunning $650,000 worth of air time. A late August independent poll and a mid-September Democratic poll found Democratic nominee Betsy Markey leading Musgrave outside of the MoE - never a good place for an incumbent to be.
FL-08 (Rep. Keller, last updated October 25th): It looks like Rep. Keller will be the victim of the Democrats' gains in the Sunshine State, and Obama's ground game risks overpowering the GOP machine in this Orlando-based district. In fact, Democrats just gained an edge in voter registration in the district, reversing the GOP's 14,000 voter advantage just two years ago. Add that to Keller's own weakness (he only received 55% of the vote against a weak opponent in the primary), and you get an explosive combination. The DCCC just released a poll showing its candidate Allen Grayson leading by 11%, even though they have curiously still not spent a dime in the district. Keller quickly replied with a survey of his own showing him leading 47% to 43%, but you know things are bad for an incumbent when he feels compelled to release such weak numbers.
FL-24 (Rep. Feeney, last updated October 18th): While this week’s internal DCCC poll showing Suzanne Kosmas leading by 23% seems very much inflated, Rep. Tom Feeney is certainly slipping because of how central ethical concerns have become to this race. Feeney himself aired an ad apologizing for his involvement with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. While he might have had to do so to earn voters’ good will, his move ensured that Abramoff was at the forefront of voters’ minds. The DCCC has spent more than $600,000 on tough ads that bring up the Abramoff scandal; in the most recent spot, a woman asks “How effective could my Representative be if he’s being investigated by the FBI?”
MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg, last updated October 25th): Joe Knollenberg is a well-established incumbent who would be very difficult to beat in a neutral environment, but the Democratic wave is now threatening to submerge him. Not only did the incumbent receive a terrible blow when McCain abruptly pulled out of Michigan, undercutting Knollenberg's hopes of relying on the GOP's presidential ground game to turn out his own base, but the NRCC has canceled all of the $600,000 it had planned on spending on his behalf. By contrast, the DCCC has already spent $1,6 million on behalf of Democratic candidate Gary Peters and the Obama campaign is still organizing in the state. A just-released DCCC poll has Peters ahead by 10%; that might be overstating his lead, but the NRCC's decision to pull out of the race confirms that even the GOP thinks the race is drifting away.
MN-03 (Open, last updated October 18th): The battle between Ashwin Madia and Erik Paulsen was shaping up to be highly competitive, but an open seat in a swing district is prime pick-up territory for Democrats in a year whose fundamentals favor them - particularly after the past month. Complicating Paulsen’s task further is that the NRCC canceled a lot of the money it was going to spend on his behalf to invest it in neighboring MN-06 instead; on the other hand, the DCCC has already spent more than $1.2 million dollars! Without national help, Paulsen will be swamped by Democratic attacks.
NC-08 (Rep. Hayes, polls, last updated October 25th): What a difference two years make. In 2006, Democrat Larry Kissell was pleading for the DCCC to invest some resources in his race against Rep. Robin Hayes. The DCCC left him in the cold, and Kissell lost by about 300 votes. This year, the DCCC is not committing the same mistake: they have already poured in $1.7 million, while the NRCC has invested nothing. Kissell is also benefiting from Democratic gains in North Carolina. And the expected boost in African-American turnout (as testified by the early voting numbers) should make a huge difference in this district, which has a substantial African-American population. As if this was not enough, both an internal DCCC poll and a SUSA survey showed Kissell with a large lead over Hayes over the past month.
NM-01 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): GOP nominee Darren White is one of the Republicans' strongest recruits this cycle, and it is unlucky for him he is running in a year whose fundamentals favor Democrats. John Kerry only won the district by 3% in 2004 but Barack Obama could win it by a comfortable margin, and that should help Democratic nominee Martin Heinrich who already appears to have a slight edge. This race remains highly competitive, however, and the DCCC is pouring in hundreds of thousands of dollars already.
NV-03 (Rep. Porter, polls, last updated October 5th): Porter recently decided that it was urgent for him to release an internal poll which shows him leading within the margin error and at a dismal 41%. That tells you just about all you need to know on Porter's vulnerability. The incumbent is being helped by Freedom's Watch, and that money will come in very handy to strike back against the DCCC's attack ads.
NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl, last updated October 11th): Republicans currently hold six seats in the Empire State, and Democrats have been targeting four of them - including three in upstate New York. Of these four seats, NY-29 is the only one featuring an incumbent. Rep. Kuhl barely survived the 2006 cycle, and Democrat Eric Massa is back for a rematch. It is never easy to topple an incumbent, but New York's Republican Party is in disarray and Kuhl looks highly vulnerable. Three polls released over the past week (one by SUSA, one by Research 2000 and one released by Democrats) show Massa leading outside of the margin of error, with Kuhl in the low 40s. That's not a good place to be for an incumbent. Add to that the DCCC's commitment to fund this race, and Democrats have a slight edge.
OH-15 (Open, last updated October 11th): If the political environment didn't favor Democrats, Republicans would be very well positioned to defy the odds and retain this district. Mary Jo Kilroy hasn't been a strong campaigner (she was favored to pick-up the seat in 2006 but fell short in one of the GOP's most unexpected victories of the cycle) and Republican state Sen. Stivers is a strong recruit. But this is not a neutral year, and any Republican would face an uphill fight in an open seat in a swing district like OH-15. A recent SUSA poll and an internal DCCC poll find Kilroy leading by single-digits, and that is where the race should be on paper as well: Kilroy underperforming but able to hold on to a slight lead. Add to that the DCCC's commitment to win this seat over (they have already spent more than $1 million dollar!), and the picture looks even bleaker for the GOP.
OH-16 (Open, last updated October 5th): Democrats were hoping this would be a fairly easy pick-up, but Republican state Sen. Schuring has stayed alive in a district that tilts Republican at the presidential level. A recent SUSA poll showed that state Sen. Boccieri is ahead, but he has yet to close the deal. The DCCC has already spent more than $800,000 attacking Schuring, and that money could make the difference in absence of a GOP response.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (2)

PA-11 (Rep. Kanjorski, last updated October 5th): Kanjorski should not be in troube. He is an entrenched Democratic incumbent whose district is not particularly conservative running in a year that is shaping up to be a strong one for Democrats. But the fact that he has not faced a competitive challenge for years has weakened his hold on the district and it might already be too late for him to save himself. Lou Barletta, the very conservative Republican candidate, is leading in most polls - and an independent survey released in September found the incumbent at a truly dismal 35%. Kanjorski's only hope is to ride the DCCC's money to discredit Barletta and eek out a narrow victory; the DCCC has indeed been pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars for months now in attack ads against Barletta, and the most recent spots - hitting Barletta for supporting the privatization of Social Security - could be particularly damaging in this electoral climate. One important question is how the electorate will react to Kanjorski's leading role in crafting the bailout.
TX-22 (Rep. Lampson, last updated October 5th): Lampson's hope for survival rests in the parties' financial disparities - if the DCCC spends heavily on his behalf and the GOP fails to answer, could he survive in what is a very heavily conservative district? Unfortunately for Lampson, Freedom's Watch is ensuring a Republican presence on the air.

Republican seats, Toss-up (20)

AL-02 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): Bobby Bright is perhaps the only Democrat who could have made this heavily conservative district competitive - perhaps because he is not a Democrat to start with. But competitive it is! The Montgomery mayor will also be helped by the endorsement of an important Republican mayor from the district, and his financial situation is boosted by the DCCC's investment.
CA-04 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): This is a heavily Republican district, and the GOP candidate is an important figure in the state's conservative circles. But the ethical trouble of outgoing Rep. Doolittle have given Democrats an opening, and their candidate Charlie Brown has already introduced himself to the district's voters (he got 46% of the vote in 2006). The GOP thinks it built an advantage by using footage of Charlie Brown in military uniform at an anti-war rally, but recent surveys have found a dead heat, with internal polls for both campaigns finding their candidates holding the edge and an independent survey giving a slight edge to Brown.
CT-04 (Rep. Shays, last updated October 5th): As expected, this race is proving contentious. The only available poll shows the two tied, and they are on equal footing financially, and the DCCC's money is being outmatched by a big investment on Shay's behalf (more than $500,000) by the National Association of Realtors PAC.
FL-21 (Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, polls, last updated October 5th): An early September SUSA poll found Democratic challenger Raul Martinez with a tiny lead, removing any doubt that this Southern Florida district is a prime pick-up opportunity. Diaz-Balart's hope for survival rests on the high negatives Martinez earned during his controversial tenures as the mayor of Hialeah. Diaz-Balart's ads have accused Martinez of using his office for financial gain and have hinted at his involvement in drug trafficking! Meanwhile, an independent Cuban-American group is hitting Diaz-Balart for adopting too strict a line on US-Cuba relations, and Patriot Majority is running spots on Martinez's behalf.
FL-25 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, polls, last updated October 5th): The dynamics of the race are very similar to those of FL-21, as the second of the Diaz-Balart brothers also faces a challenge to his hold on Cuban-American votes. Polling has shown the race is tight, but the main difference plays to the Republican's disadvantage: Democratic candidate Joe Garcia isn't as controversial a figure as Raul Martinez, and that gives the GOP fewer openings.
ID-01 (Rep. Sali, polls, last updated October 25th): That GOP Rep. Bill Sali is endangered in a district Bush won with 69% of the vote in 2004 is entirely due the incumbent's personality and extremism. Sali is despised by much of Idaho's Republican establishment, and he is best known for incidents such as these, in which he disturbed his opponent's chief of staff's interview with a local journalist with heckling and... bunny ears. Democratic internal polls have shown a competitive race for months, and a recent SUSA poll has Democratic candidate Walt Minnick leading by 6%. A sure sign that this race is highly competitive: The NRCC is pouring significant amount of money to defend Sali. Who would have thought the GOP's meager fundraising would have to be spent defending a seat in Idaho?
IL-10 (Rep. Kirk)
LA-04 (Open, last updated October 5th): The primary was only held on October 4th (it was postponed because of Hurricane Ike) and the nominee of both parties will be decided in a runoff. The good news for Democrats is that Paul Carmouche, a DA with strong name recognition, is almost assured of winning his party's nod on November 4th as he got 48% of the vote yesterday; the Republican primary should be more contentious, as the top two candidates came within a few percentage points of each other. The general election will be held on December 6th, which should help Carmouche overcome the district's conservative lean.
MD-01 (Open, last updated October 18th): The GOP primary between Andy Harris and Rep. Gilchrest appears to have left deep wounds that has given Democratic nominee Frank M. Kratovil a chance at a major upset in a very conservative district. Democratic internal polls are showing the race is a dead heat, and the GOP is not moving to contradict that. At the end of September, the DCCC decided to invest in the district - and they have already spent more than $900,000! Meanwhile, Harris is being helped by Club for Growth, which has spent more than $300,000 on his behalf. Democrats picking-up MD-01 would be the sign of a big blue wave.
MI-07 (Rep. Walberg, polls, last updated October 5th): Not only are polls showing a tight race in this conservative-leaning district, but McCain's sudden and unexpected decision to pull out of Michigan leaves a void in the Republican ground game in the Wolverine State - and that could prove a huge headache for the state's down-ballot Republicans.
MO-09 (Open, polls, last updated October 18th): This is one of those few districts the NRCC has invested in. That is both a sign that the party is worried about losing this conservative-leaning district and a sign that they think it is salvageable, putting the race right in the toss-up category. But the DCCC is making sure to significantly outspend the NRCC ($400,000 to $100,000). A further problem for Republicans: their nominee Blaine Luetkemeyer finished September with a stunningly low $43,000. That means that Luetkemeyer absolutely needs the national help he is getting just to stay financially viable.
MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann, last updated October 25th): It is too early to tell whether Michelle Bachmann's anti-Americanism rant on MSNBC will prove to be her macaca moment, but it has seriously endangered her reelection chances. Two polls released over the past week showed Bachmann trailing within the margin of error, a remarkable turn of events in a race that until two weeks ago was considered to be relatively safe.And you can't accuse Bachmann of backing down easily. After standing her ground in the immediate aftermath of her comments, Bachmann is now airing an in which she asks voters to understand that “I may not always get my words right, but I know that my heart is right." Far from apologizing, Bachmann repeats her argument that liberalism stands in opposition to American values. "We could embrace government as the answer to our problems," she says. "Or we can choose freedom and liberty."
NJ-03 (Open, last updated October 5th): Along with the two Ohio open seats, IL-11 and NJ-07, this is an open seat Democrats were once hoping they would win comfortably - but the only polls we have seen point to a dead heat, and the DCCC has already invested hundreds of thousands of dollars. One key factor here is the candidates' own financial situation. Democratic candidate Adler has a significant fundraising advantage, and it is unlikely his Republican opponent can pull this out unless he benefits from the NRCC's help. This race could soon move back to the lean take-over column if the NRCC does not invest in the district.
NJ-07 (Open, last updated October 5th): The situation in this Dem-leaning district parallels that of NJ-03: an open seat it should be winning more easily that the DCCC is pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars in. Here again, spending disparities could make a difference: this is a very expensive district to play in because it falls in the New York City market, and that could prove all Democrats need to eek out a victory. However, Republican hopes rest on the high negatives Linda Stender earned from her 2006 race, when the GOP had played on the "pun" Stender/Spender to tag her as a "big spender." The Republicans are using the same strategy this year in a childish but effective ad campaign.
NM-02 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): The Democratic candidate, wealthy oil executive (and self-funder) Harry Teague, looks surprisingly strong. A recent independent poll even found him with a narrow lead. Republican Ed Tinsley, who also has ties to the oil industry and who is also self-funding part of his campaign, is not able to rely on the district's strong Republican lean because Teague has a base of conservative supporters from his days as the county commissioner of a Republican area. The DCCC is helping Teague and has already invested more than a quarter-million dollars.
NY-26 (Open, polls): This has been one of the most eventful races over the past two months. When Tom Reynolds announced he would retire, Democrats sensed this was a big opportunity for them to continue their take-over of New York politics. But when the DCCC's favored candidate Jon Powers and multi-millionaire Jack Davis spent weeks hurling insults at each other, a third candidate, environment attorney Alice Kryzan, came out of nowhere to win the Democratic nod. But the DCCC is remaining committed to contesting the district and is now on air against GOP nominee Chris Lee; Kryzan is also being boosted by Emily's List. A recent independent poll conducted by SUSA found Lee leading by double-digits, but Democrats got good news recently when Jon Powers removed himself from the Working Families Parties party ballot line and will not play spoiler.
OH-01 (Rep. Chabot, polls, last updated October 5th): Chabot barely survived in 2006, and he has just as difficult a race to deal with this year. More than in most House races, the result could depend on Barack Obama's coattails. This district has a substantial African-American population, and Obama's ground game will thus heavily target sporadic black voters here; any increase in the share of black voters would naturally boost House candidate Driehaus.
PA-03 (Rep. English, last updated October 5th): Who knew? While this district had long been on the list of vulnerable seats, few people expected English to be this obviously vulnerable months from the election. But not only does English now trail in an independent poll, he is also the beneficiary of the NRCC's first (and so far only) defensive ad buy. That is certainly welcome help for English, but it is also a testament to how weak his standing is. The GOP is hoping to move quickly to define Dahlkemper, but the DCCC is pouring in money of its own.
WA-08 (Rep. Reichert, polls, last updated October 25th): Rematches tend to be the most brutal races, and the second match-up between Rep. Reichert and Darcy Burner is no exception. The latest salvos include both camps questioning their opponent's college degree, with the conservative Seattle Times taking care of the (now discredited) hit job on the Democrat. That said, Burner has significantly improved her poll numbers over the past two weeks; after two Democratic surveys found her ahead, SUSA and Research 2000 both confirmed that she had erased Reichert's lead.
WY-AL (Open)

Democratic seats, Toss-up (6)

AL-05 (Open, last updated October 5th): Democrats thought that they had built a slight edge in the toughest open seat they are defending, but Republicans are now going all out against Parker Griffith. GOP candidate Wayne Parker has obtained an internal peer review from Griffith's radiation oncologist days. The document charges that Griffith under-radiated patients at his cancer treatment center in order to charge them more money; Parker is running an ad devoted to the issue, and Democrats have been forced on the defensive.
GA-08 (Rep. Marshall, last updated October 5th): How will the politics of the bailout impact Marshall's reelection race? He is one of the rare vulnerable incumbents to have voted "yes" on both House votes, and he quickly went up with an ad explaining his decision. That is a clear sign that Marshall is worried his opponent (who came out in opposition to the bailout, though only after the first House vote) could make this into a powerful campaign issue.
KS-02 (Rep. Boyda, polls)
LA-06 (Rep. Cazayoux, last updated October 18th): Rep. Cazayoux became one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents when fellow Democrat Michael Jackson announced he would mount an independent bid. In this Republican a district, a Democrat needs to mobilize the African-Amerian vote, and Jackson’s candidacy threatens to divide a key constituency. Yet, Democrats have released two internal polls over the past few months showing Cazayoux crushing GOP candidate Bill Cassidy, with Jackson in single digits. I have trouble believing that two Democratic candidates could receive 30% more than the Republican nominee in a district that gave Bush 59% of the vote in 2004, but the GOP has not released an internal poll of their own. I might not (yet) moving LA-06 to lean Democratic, but it is clear that Cassidy does not have the edge I thought he would.
NH-01 (Rep. Shea-Porter, polls, last updated October 5th): Former Rep. Jeb Bradley narrowly won the Republican primary and earned a rematch against Carol Shea-Porter. Recent polls have shown a horse race, with Shea-Porter trailing in UNH and leading by 1% in Research 2000. The outcome of this election will probably be decided by whether the GOP brand has improved among New Hampshire independents over the past two years. The DCCC has already poured in nearly $700,000 to help Shea-Porter.
WI-8 (Rep. Kagen, polls, last updated October 5th): This is the first Democratic-held district that the NRCC invested in, a sure sign that the GOP believes this is a true opportunity. The DCCC is helping Kagen, but they have not released their own polls of the race - something the GOP has been willing to do, pointing to a dead heat.

Republican seats, Lean retention (9)

AZ-03 (Rep. Shadegg, last updated October 5th): Another stunning no one expected to be competitive this late in the cycle, but the DCCC's unexpected decision to dump more than $200,000 in an ad buy against Shadegg suggests that the veteran Republican incumbent is more endangered than commonly thought.
KY-02 (Open, polls, last updated October 18th): This seat was the most chaotic of the cycle until NY-13 came around, and Democrats were excited that they had an excellent chance in this conservative a district. Polls taken throughout the spring and the summer suggested that state Senator Boswell had a slight lead. Yet, this is one the rare districts that have moved towards the GOP over the past few weeks. (SUSA has GOP candidate state Senator Guthrie gaining for the second month in a row to jump to a 9% lead, and the Boswell campaign’s internal numbers have the Democrat’s lead falling from 7% to 1%, with a lot of undecideds. This is an open seat in a conservative area, making it likely that undecideds would break towards Guthrie.) One possible explanation for Guthrie gains’ is that the DCCC’s involvement here has backfired: the committee’s attack ads were blasted as untrustworthy by the local media, putting Boswell on the defensive.
IN-03 (Rep. Souder, last updated October 18th): This is an extremely Republican district (Bush got 68% of the vote in 2004), and that is precisely why it was so surprising that Rep. Souder was held to 54% of the vote in 2006 against a massively underfunded Democratic opponent. This year, Souder is facing Mike Montagano, perhaps not a top-tier candidate but certainly a credible one. And contrary to the 2006 candidate, Montagano will be funded: The DCCC has decided to invest in the race, in what is perhaps the biggest surprise of the past week. The committee has already bought $150,000 worth of advertisement and more is on the way. A recent internal poll for Montagano had Souder leading by 5%, though the trendline favored the Democrat: Souder retains an edge, but the race has suddenly become very competitive.
MO-06 (Rep. Graves, polls)
NE-02 (Rep. Terry, last updated October 11th): Democrats have been mentioning this race for a while, but this is conservative enough a district for a Republican incumbent to be given the benefit of the doubt. But the DCCC's unexpected decision to invest significant resources in the race - they have already spent more than $200,000 - puts it on the list of competitive races, especially when you combine the DCCC's investment to Obama's efforts in the state (the presidential campaign has opened 2 field offices in Omaha, forcing Sarah Palin to come and campaign). Democrats are making a rare push to organize Omaha, and that puts NE-02 in play.
NV-02 (Rep. Heller, last updated October 11th): Nevada Democrats are riding the momentum of big registration gains, while Republicans are being weighed down by the unpopularity of their governor, not to mention the GOP's national difficulties. That gives an opening to Jill Derby, who is back for a rematch in this conservative district. An independent poll recently found Rep. Heller leading but under 50% and in single-digits, so the race is certainly competitive.
OH-02 (Rep. Schmidt, last updated October 5th): Schmidt maintains a lead in recent polling, but she remains under 50% - dangerous territory for any incumbent. This confirms that she has been unable to solidify her position in what is a very conservative district. Yet, this is her first time she is running in a presidential year, and McCain's coattails might help. This is one district in which a third party candidacy could affect the final results.
VA-02 (Rep. Drake, last updated October 5th): A recent internal poll for the Nye campaign suggests that Drake isn't as safe as the GOP was hoping she would be, but she does retain an edge. Obama's ground game in the Old Dominion could be very helpful for Nye to score an upset here.
WV-02 (Rep. Capito)

Democratic seats, Lean retention (7)

AZ-05 (Rep. Mitchell)
CA-11 (Rep. McNerney, last updated October 18th): When Rep. McNerney picked up the seat in 2006, the GOP was determined to make sure he served one term in what is a Republican district. But former state Rep. Dean Andal has not proved as strong a candidate as Republicans were hoping he would be. While he ends up in a competitive position financially as of the end of September, McNerney outspent him 8:1 in the second quarter, which allowed him to solidify his position - especially when you add the almost $1 million of television ads NARPAC is spending on McNerney’s behalf. Meanwhile, a recent SUSA poll gave McNerney an 11% edge.
KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth, polls)
MS-01 (Rep. Childers)
PA-04 (Rep. Altmire, last updated October 5th): This is a high priority district for the GOP, but the fact that the DCCC hasn't spent a dime to help Altmire for now is a good sign for the incumbent. A mid-September internal poll for the campaign of former Rep. Hart showed her trailing by 5%. That certainly means that Altmire is endangered, but for him to have a narrow edge in a Republican poll suggests he starts off with an edge.
PA-10 (Rep. Carney, polls, last updated October 5th): This conservative district is one of the Republicans top targets, but the Democratic incumbent starts with a narrow advantage - as confirmed by the most recent polls. It is in districts such as these that Democratic gains in recent weeks could make themselves felt by immunizing Democrats against Republican attacks. Furthermore, the DCCC knows that Carney is endangered and is pouring in hundreds of thousands of dollars that the RNCC obviously cannot match.
PA-12 (Rep. Murtha, last updated October 25th): Rep. Murtha's comments describing Western Pennsylvania as a "racist" area transformed this race overnight from a safe Democratic district to a competitive race, and Murtha's subsequent attempts to explain himself did not help the situation. In a neutral environment, that might be enough to allow Republican candidate Russell to upset an entrenched incumbent like Murtha, but the Democrat could be saved by the political environment. Another factor that will hinder Russell's hopes is that the NRCC has no money to come to his aid (unlike, say, in MN-06 where the DCCC quickly committed $1 million to attacking Bachmann after her MSNBC comments).

Republican seats, likely retention (25)

AL-03 (Rep. Rogers)
CA-03 (Rep. Lungren, last updated October 18th): In what is a rematch of the 2006 race, GOP Rep. Dan Lungren has not been very worried about this re-election race (he only raised $190,000 in the third quarter) but Democrat Bill Durston no longer appears like the long-shot he was just two weeks ago. An internal Durston poll showed him within 3% of the incumbent; Lungren replied with two internal polls showing him with big leads - but under 50%.
CA-26 (Rep. Dreier, last updated October 18th): Rep. David Dreier has been in office for 28 years in a GOP-leaning district. Should that not be enough to guarantee his re-election? Perhaps in another year, but Dreier is one of many Republicans who should be very careful in the coming weeks. Russ Warner is a credible enough candidate that he could be in a position of making the race unexpectedly competitive if there is a strong blue wave.
CA-46 (Rep. Rohrabacher, last updated October 18th): Rep. Dana Rohrabacher was nowhere on our radar screen, but Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook appears to have a chance at scoring a big upset. While we have gotten no hard numbers from the race, a Capitol Weekly article reveals that Republican internals have the race within the margin of error! Cook’s third quarter fundraising was good, but she ended September with only $30,284. She will need the DCCC’s help to make this any more competitive.
CA-50 (Rep. Bilbray, last updated October 18th): While conservative, this district is not as overwhelmingly Republican than some of the others Democrats are now eying (Bush got 55% of the vote in 2004). Rep. Brian Bilbray got elected in a highly competitive special election in 2006 after the DCCC spent millions on his behalf. Now, there is some buzz forming around Democratic candidate Nick Leibham, who recently released a poll showing Bilbray leading by only 2%. Bilbray quickly responded with an internal survey that had him leading 48% to 35%, a more comfortable margin but another sign that Bilbray isn’t as safe as we thought. The race remains a difficult one for Democrats, but Leibham outraised Bilbray in the third quarter and he could pull off an upset if the DCCC joins in the fun.
FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan, last updated October 5th): Independent polls show Buchanan with a large lead over Jennings in this rematch of a controversial 2006 race. Complicating matters for Jennings is that Jan Schneider, the Democratic nominee in 2002 and 2004, will be on the ballot as an independent. She is expected to draw a substantial enough share of the vote to make the electoral math very difficult for Jennings to pull off.
FL-15 (open)
FL-18 (Rep. Ros-Lehtinen, polls, last updated October 5th): The third of the three Southern Florida districts, FL-18 is also the least competitive. Democratic candidate Annette Taddeo is a favorite of the netroots, but Ros-Lehtinen has simply shown little sign of vulnerability for now. The latest polls have her ahead by commanding margins.
IA-04 (Rep. Latham, last updated October 25th): Rep. Latham is sitting in one of the least Republican districts held by his party, and that's not a good district to hold in a heavily Democratic year. Becky Greenwald is now in a position to score one of the year's biggest upsets, just as her party shockingly picked-up IA-02 out of nowhere two years ago. A just-released Research 2000 poll shows Latham leading by only 5%, and Barack Obama's strength in Iowa could further boost down-the-ballot Democratic totals in the state.
IL-06 (Rep. Roskam)
IL-18 (Open, last updated October 5th): Aaron Schock is on his way to becoming the youngest members of the 111th Congress. An internal poll for his campaign finds him ahead by 30%, and, while that might be an exaggerated lead, Democrats have not released an internal poll of their own that would contradict those results. Perhaps the best sign of Democratic desperation came when Democratic candidate Callahan released a remake of the Daisy ad.
LA-07 (Rep. Boustany)
NC-10 (Rep. McHenry, last updated October 18th): Rep. McHenry has been mentioned as a potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent for months, but in a district that Bush won with 67% of the vote in 2004, a GOP candidate is allowed the benefit of the doubt. Yet, Democrats believe their candidate Daniel Johnson has a chance at offsetting the district’s Republican balance. Given how much progress Democrats appear to have made in the state, that is certainly possible. Johnson has been added to the Red to Blue program, and he will need DCCC spending to make this really competitive.
NJ-05 (Rep. Garrett, last updated October 25th): Not that Rep. Garrett is sitting in an overwhelmingly Republican district (Bush got 57% of the vote in 2004, but only 52% in 2000), but he was not expected to face that competitive a challenge this year. Yet, Democratic gains have been the strongest in the Northeast, and that has put this seat on the Democrats' radar screen. Garrett's opponent is progressive candidate and netroots favorite Rabbi Dennis Shulman, a credible enough contender to benefit if voters are looking to reject Garrett. A just-released Research 2000 poll has a 7% race, and Garrett is feeling nervous enough about his chances to have released one of the most vicious ads we have seen this year, juxtaposing his opponent to Ahmadinejad.
OH-07 (Open)
OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette)
PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach)
PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
VA-05 (Rep. Goode)
VA-10 (Rep. Wolf)
SC-01 (Rep. Brown, last updated October 18th): This is a heavy Republican district (it gave 61% of its vote to Bush in 2004) and Rep. Brown was certainly not supposed to face a competitive race. He was unopposed in 2004 and got 60% of the vote two years later. But Democrats are running a very wealthy candidate, Linda Ketner, who is spending a lot of her own money (she outspent Brown 3:1 in the third quarter). In a Democratic year, that at least gives her a fighting chance.
SC-02 (Rep. Wilson, last updated October 18th): This race is even more of a long-shot than SC-01 because Democratic candidate Rob Miller does not have the financial advantage enjoyed by Linda Ketner, but Rep. Joe Wilson should nonetheless be careful. This is a district where an increased share in black turnout could have a big impact, as a quarter of the district’s residents is African-American.
TX-07 (Rep. Culberson, last updated October 11th): An independent poll showing a single-digit race and an incumbent under 50% is enough to warrant a race a place in these ratings. This contest could still move up depending on how aggressive Democrats are at pursuing it, but this is certainly an unlikely district for them to score a pick-up.
TX-10 (Rep. McCaul):

Democratic seats, likely retention (14)

AZ-08 (Rep. Giffords, polls, last updated October 18th): Republicans had high hope for state Senate President Tim Bee, but Rep. Giffords looks too strong for the GOP to defeat in this Democratic year - not to mention that Giffords has been one of the strongest fundraisers among endangered Democrats. Now, the DCCC has canceled the rest of its TV reservations after spending more than $300,000 helping Giffords, a sure sign that national Democrats feel confident about Giffords’ prospects. The NRCC cannot come to Bee’s help, meaning that the two candidates are now on their own - and Giffords had far more cash on hand at the end of September than her opponent.
CT-05 (Rep. Murphy)
GA-12 (Rep. Barrow): Republican John Stone never caught fire in a district that tilts narrowly Democratic. Barrow barely survived in 2006, but he has had two more years to entrench himself since then.
KS-03 (Rep. Moore): There isn't much action in this heavily conservative district that the GOP has been looking.
IL-08 (Rep. Bean)
IN-09 (Rep. Hill, polls, last updated October 11th): Republicans have not been able to gain as much traction as in past years for what is the fourth straight match-up between Baron Hill and Mike Sodrel. Hill won in 2002 and 2006, Sodrel won in 2004. Barack Obama's unexpected strength in the Hoosier State has undercut the GOP's hope that presidential coattails would carry Sodrel through the finish line as they did in 2004, not to mention that Hill will benefit from Obama's strong ground game while the McCain campaign has spent little time organizing Indiana. Recent independent polls have found Hill leading by double-digits.
IL-14 (Rep. Foster)
IN-08 (Rep. Ellsworth)
NH-02 (Rep. Hodes)
MN-01 (Rep. Walz, last updated October 5th): Walz leads by 18% in an internal poll released by his opponent. Enough said.
NY-20 (Rep. Gillibrand, last updated October 18th): Rep. Gillbrand has proved one of the strongest Democratic fundraisers, while Republican candidate Sandy Treadwell has been unable to get much traction - and is unlikely to do so without the NRCC’s help (which will not come). The district might be leaning Republican, but Gillbrand is strongly positioned to win re-election.
OH-18 (Rep. Space)
OR-05 (Open, last updated October 18th): Once one of the Republicans’ top pick-up opportunities, the district is rapidly drifting towards Democrats. Republican candidate Mike Erickson has been involved in a series of (abortion and ethics-related) scandals that have prevented him from gaining any traction and truly endangering state Senator Kirk Schrader, the Democratic nominee. The DCCC isn’t even spending any money on the district, a testament to how comfortable Democrats are feeling about the race. A recent SUSA poll had Schrader leading by 13%.
PA-08 (Rep. Murphy)
TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)

October 18th ratings

2008-10-27T09:54:00.000-07:00

House Republicans finally got some great news this week as Tim Mahoney’s scandals in FL-16 pushes the first Democratic seat in the likely take-over category. Yet, it is House Democrats who continue to improve their standing, putting an increasing number of seats in play in what is shaping up as a repeat of the 2006 campaign. Of this week’s 19 rating changes, 17 favor Democrats, and 8 new GOP-held districts are added to the ratings.

Of course, it is highly unlikely that Democrats will pick up more than a couple of the third-tier races that are now appearing on our radar screen. But capturing just one of the four California districts that have just been added to these ratings (CA-03, CA-26, CA-46 and CA-50) would already be an upset of epic proportions that would signal that Democrats are enjoying a huge wave that could put 2006 to shame; picking-up none would in no way endanger their prospects of scoring great gains. There are already 36 GOP-held seats that are rated likely take-over, lean take-over or toss-up.

The DCCC’s financial advantage should ensure that few stones are left unturned. The committee just secured a $15 million loan (days after the NRCC took out an $8 million line of credit) ensuring that Democrats will have money to invest in races that just two weeks ago were viewed as long-shots and at the very least test the vulnerability of Republican incumbents.

Safe Democratic: 208 seats
Likely/Safe Democratic: 227 seats
Lean/Likely/Safe Democratic: 242 seats
Toss-ups: 26 seats
Lean/Likely/Safe Republican: 167 seats
Likely/Safe Republican: 153 seats
Safe Republican: 129 seats

---

History of House ratings:

October: Can Democrats keep up the 2006 parallel?
August: Will the DCCC succeed in putting the top tier in play?
June: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York
February: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep clear edge
November: How many more Republican retirements?
October: Democrats feel better as GOP faces worrisome retirements
September: Democrats poised to keep majority

Republican seats, Likely take-over (3)

NY-13 (open, last updated October 5th): Who knew Republicans had it in them to make this race even more chaotic? Just all the spring and summer confusion seemed to have given way to a slow wait for Democrat McMahon's certain victory, a new chapter was written in the civil war of Staten Island's Republican Party when GOP nominee Staniere squashed an attempt to grant him a judicial nomination to perhaps pave the way for Rep. Fossella's return on the ballot.
NY-25 (open, last updated October 5th): An open seat in a blue-leaning district is a gift to Democrats in a year in which they are favored. Note that the DCCC has stepped in and spent more than $100,000 in ads so far; should that be taken as a sign that the race could be tighter than we are thinking or as confirmation that Democrats have enough money for insurance policies? The only potential danger for Democratic candidate Maffei right now is his connection with Rep. Rangel.
VA-11 (open, polls, last updated October 5th): The situation is the same as in NY-25, and the DCCC has spent some money here as well.

Democratic seats, Likely take-over (1)

FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney, last updated October 18th): Rep. Tim Mahoney was elected to replace Mike Foley two years ago - and now he himself is embroiled in a massive sex scandal that includes charges of pay-off and harassment. Pelosi has called for an investigation, Republicans are having a field day and Mahoney’s re-election prospects have fallen so low that even the NRCC moved out of the district: they don’t even see the need to spend any money to ensure the seat falls in their lap. A recent GOP poll had Tom Rooney leading by more than 20%, confirming that this race is over.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (10)

AK-AL (Rep. Young, polls, last updated October 5th): There was much riding on the GOP primary between incumbent Rep. Don Young and Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell. Alaska is conservative, and Republicans would have had an edge had they been able to get rid of their ethically challenged incumbent. It took three weeks for all ballots to be counted in an inexplicably slow process. Don Young finally prevailed by a few hundred votes - and that was great news for Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz, who leads Young in all recent polls. Young is an important figure of Alaska politics, and he could still make a comeback - perhaps fueled by Palin's coattails. That said, Ted Stevens' trial will remind Alaska voters of the corruption problem of state Republicans, and that is bound to hurt Young.
AZ-01 (Open, last updated October 5th): The GOP needed to field strong candidates to have a chance to hold on to these swing open seats, and Sydney Hay is not as strong a contender as Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick. The financial disparity between the two candidates will also make a difference.
CO-04 (Rep. Musgrave, polls, last updated October 5th): Musgrave consistently under-performs her district's Republican lean, and she holds the dubious distinction of being the 2006 House candidate to win with the lowest share of the vote (45%). Now, Democrats are heavily targeting her, and so are independent groups. Musgrave has been targeted by the largest outside expenditure of any district: the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund just bought a stunning $650,000 worth of air time. A late August independent poll and a mid-September Democratic poll found Democratic nominee Betsy Markey leading Musgrave outside of the MoE - never a good place for an incumbent to be.
FL-24 (Rep. Feeney, last updated October 18th): While this week’s internal DCCC poll showing Suzanne Kosmas leading by 23% seems very much inflated, Rep. Tom Feeney is certainly slipping because of how central ethical concerns have become to this race. Feeney himself aired an ad apologizing for his involvement with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. While he might have had to do so to earn voters’ good will, his move ensured that Abramoff was at the forefront of voters’ minds. The DCCC has spent more than $600,000 on tough ads that bring up the Abramoff scandal; in the most recent spot, a woman asks “How effective could my Representative be if he’s being investigated by the FBI?”
IL-11 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): In no GOP-held district has the DCCC spent as much money as in IL-11 - about $850,000 already. While this will go a long way towards helping Democratic nominee Debbie Halvorson, GOP nominee Marty Ozinga has deep pockets and could stay competitive financially without the NRCC's help. And considering that this seat seemed all but lost for Republicans a few months ago when they didn't even have a candidate, it is miraculous that they have managed to get Democrats to spend this much money here. Halvorson has been hurt by her belonging to the leadership of the state Democratic Party given the deep unpopularity of Gov. Blagojevich. Competing internal polls in late September showed Halvorson leading by 2% in Ozinga's poll and by 8% in her own.
MN-03 (Open, last updated October 18th): The battle between Ashwin Madia and Erik Paulsen was shaping up to be highly competitive, but an open seat in a swing district is prime pick-up territory for Democrats in a year whose fundamentals favor them - particularly after the past month. Complicating Paulsen’s task further is that the NRCC canceled a lot of the money it was going to spend on his behalf to invest it in neighboring MN-06 instead; on the other hand, the DCCC has already spent more than $1.2 million dollars! Without national help, Paulsen will be swamped by Democratic attacks.
NM-01 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): GOP nominee Darren White is one of the Republicans' strongest recruits this cycle, and it is unlucky for him he is running in a year whose fundamentals favor Democrats. John Kerry only won the district by 3% in 2004 but Barack Obama could win it by a comfortable margin, and that should help Democratic nominee Martin Heinrich who already appears to have a slight edge. This race remains highly competitive, however, and the DCCC is pouring in hundreds of thousands of dollars already.
NV-03 (Rep. Porter, polls, last updated October 5th): Porter recently decided that it was urgent for him to release an internal poll which shows him leading within the margin error and at a dismal 41%. That tells you just about all you need to know on Porter's vulnerability. The incumbent is being helped by Freedom's Watch, and that money will come in very handy to strike back against the DCCC's attack ads.
NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl, last updated October 11th): Republicans currently hold six seats in the Empire State, and Democrats have been targeting four of them - including three in upstate New York. Of these four seats, NY-29 is the only one featuring an incumbent. Rep. Kuhl barely survived the 2006 cycle, and Democrat Eric Massa is back for a rematch. It is never easy to topple an incumbent, but New York's Republican Party is in disarray and Kuhl looks highly vulnerable. Three polls released over the past week (one by SUSA, one by Research 2000 and one released by Democrats) show Massa leading outside of the margin of error, with Kuhl in the low 40s. That's not a good place to be for an incumbent. Add to that the DCCC's commitment to fund this race, and Democrats have a slight edge.
OH-15 (Open, last updated October 11th): If the political environment didn't favor Democrats, Republicans would be very well positioned to defy the odds and retain this district. Mary Jo Kilroy hasn't been a strong campaigner (she was favored to pick-up the seat in 2006 but fell short in one of the GOP's most unexpected victories of the cycle) and Republican state Sen. Stivers is a strong recruit. But this is not a neutral year, and any Republican would face an uphill fight in an open seat in a swing district like OH-15. A recent SUSA poll and an internal DCCC poll find Kilroy leading by single-digits, and that is where the race should be on paper as well: Kilroy underperforming but able to hold on to a slight lead. Add to that the DCCC's commitment to win this seat over (they have already spent more than $1 million dollar!), and the picture looks even bleaker for the GOP.
OH-16 (Open, last updated October 5th): Democrats were hoping this would be a fairly easy pick-up, but Republican state Sen. Schuring has stayed alive in a district that tilts Republican at the presidential level. A recent SUSA poll showed that state Sen. Boccieri is ahead, but he has yet to close the deal. The DCCC has already spent more than $800,000 attacking Schuring, and that money could make the difference in absence of a GOP response.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (3)

PA-11 (Rep. Kanjorski, last updated October 5th): Kanjorski should not be in troube. He is an entrenched Democratic incumbent whose district is not particularly conservative running in a year that is shaping up to be a strong one for Democrats. But the fact that he has not faced a competitive challenge for years has weakened his hold on the district and it might already be too late for him to save himself. Lou Barletta, the very conservative Republican candidate, is leading in most polls - and an independent survey released in September found the incumbent at a truly dismal 35%. Kanjorski's only hope is to ride the DCCC's money to discredit Barletta and eek out a narrow victory; the DCCC has indeed been pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars for months now in attack ads against Barletta, and the most recent spots - hitting Barletta for supporting the privatization of Social Security - could be particularly damaging in this electoral climate. One important question is how the electorate will react to Kanjorski's leading role in crafting the bailout.
TX-22 (Rep. Lampson, last updated October 5th): Lampson's hope for survival rests in the parties' financial disparities - if the DCCC spends heavily on his behalf and the GOP fails to answer, could he survive in what is a very heavily conservative district? Unfortunately for Lampson, Freedom's Watch is ensuring a Republican presence on the air.

Republican seats, Toss-up (21)

AL-02 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): Bobby Bright is perhaps the only Democrat who could have made this heavily conservative district competitive - perhaps because he is not a Democrat to start with. But competitive it is! The Montgomery mayor will also be helped by the endorsement of an important Republican mayor from the district, and his financial situation is boosted by the DCCC's investment.
CA-04 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): This is a heavily Republican district, and the GOP candidate is an important figure in the state's conservative circles. But the ethical trouble of outgoing Rep. Doolittle have given Democrats an opening, and their candidate Charlie Brown has already introduced himself to the district's voters (he got 46% of the vote in 2006). The GOP thinks it built an advantage by using footage of Charlie Brown in military uniform at an anti-war rally, but recent surveys have found a dead heat, with internal polls for both campaigns finding their candidates holding the edge and an independent survey giving a slight edge to Brown.
CT-04 (Rep. Shays, last updated October 5th): As expected, this race is proving contentious. The only available poll shows the two tied, and they are on equal footing financially, and the DCCC's money is being outmatched by a big investment on Shay's behalf (more than $500,000) by the National Association of Realtors PAC.
FL-08 (Rep. Keller, last updated October 5th): This Orlando-based district is one of the most worrisome developments for House Republicans. Ric Keller was not expected to be so obviously vulnerable, but his weakness became evident in his primary, when he only received 55% of the vote against a weak opponent. Now, he is facing Alan Grayson, a wealthy Democratic businessman who recently released a poll finding him narrowly ahead of the incumbent (Republicans have not released a counter-poll). Keller hopes he can eek out a win because of Grayson's outspokenly liberal record, particularly his opposition to the Iraq War and his connection to Code Pink. But can a Democrat really suffer this year for having opposed the war?
FL-21 (Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, polls, last updated October 5th): An early September SUSA poll found Democratic challenger Raul Martinez with a tiny lead, removing any doubt that this Southern Florida district is a prime pick-up opportunity. Diaz-Balart's hope for survival rests on the high negatives Martinez earned during his controversial tenures as the mayor of Hialeah. Diaz-Balart's ads have accused Martinez of using his office for financial gain and have hinted at his involvement in drug trafficking! Meanwhile, an independent Cuban-American group is hitting Diaz-Balart for adopting too strict a line on US-Cuba relations, and Patriot Majority is running spots on Martinez's behalf.
FL-25 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, polls, last updated October 5th): The dynamics of the race are very similar to those of FL-21, as the second of the Diaz-Balart brothers also faces a challenge to his hold on Cuban-American votes. Polling has shown the race is tight, but the main difference plays to the Republican's disadvantage: Democratic candidate Joe Garcia isn't as controversial a figure as Raul Martinez, and that gives the GOP fewer openings.
IL-10 (Rep. Kirk)
LA-04 (Open, last updated October 5th): The primary was only held on October 4th (it was postponed because of Hurricane Ike) and the nominee of both parties will be decided in a runoff. The good news for Democrats is that Paul Carmouche, a DA with strong name recognition, is almost assured of winning his party's nod on November 4th as he got 48% of the vote yesterday; the Republican primary should be more contentious, as the top two candidates came within a few percentage points of each other. The general election will be held on December 6th, which should help Carmouche overcome the district's conservative lean.
MD-01 (Open, last updated October 18th): The GOP primary between Andy Harris and Rep. Gilchrest appears to have left deep wounds that has given Democratic nominee Frank M. Kratovil a chance at a major upset in a very conservative district. Democratic internal polls are showing the race is a dead heat, and the GOP is not moving to contradict that. At the end of September, the DCCC decided to invest in the district - and they have already spent more than $900,000! Meanwhile, Harris is being helped by Club for Growth, which has spent more than $300,000 on his behalf. Democrats picking-up MD-01 would be the sign of a big blue wave.
MI-07 (Rep. Walberg, polls, last updated October 5th): Not only are polls showing a tight race in this conservative-leaning district, but McCain's sudden and unexpected decision to pull out of Michigan leaves a void in the Republican ground game in the Wolverine State - and that could prove a huge headache for the state's down-ballot Republicans.
MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg, last updated October 11th): Rep. Knollenberg's prospects have collapsed over the past month. This is a swing district (Bush prevailed with 51% of the vote in 2004), and it is filled with Reagan Democrats - one of the constituencies that have been moving to the Democratic Party because of the financial crisis. And McCain's decision to pull out of the state is devastating for Knollenberg, who was partly relying on the presidential campaign's turnout effort to mobilize his own supporters. Democratic candidate Peters has been polling ahead or even; Peters leads by 11% in a DCCC poll, but the DCCC's internal numbers in many districts have been far more favorable for Democrats than those of other firms; an independent poll and an internal poll for Peters find the race within single digits. That sounds more believable, but what also seems certain is that Knollenberg is way under 50% - in fact, he looks to be stuck in the low 40s, deadly territory for an incumbent, especially when he can't count on a superior ground game to help him.
MO-09 (Open, polls, last updated October 18th): This is one of those few districts the NRCC has invested in. That is both a sign that the party is worried about losing this conservative-leaning district and a sign that they think it is salvageable, putting the race right in the toss-up category. But the DCCC is making sure to significantly outspend the NRCC ($400,000 to $100,000). A further problem for Republicans: their nominee Blaine Luetkemeyer finished September with a stunningly low $43,000. That means that Luetkemeyer absolutely needs the national help he is getting just to stay financially viable.
NC-08 (Rep. Hayes, polls, last updated October 5th): The DCCC's refusal to invest anything in this district in 2006 surely cost them one more pick-up, as Larry Kissell was about 300 votes away from unseating the incumbent. This year, the DCCC is taking this district seriously and is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars attacking Hayes. Those ads appear to be taking their toll, as Hayes's own internal polls have shown him leading within the margin of error. Kissell's latest internal shows him with a comfortable lead.
NJ-03 (Open, last updated October 5th): Along with the two Ohio open seats, IL-11 and NJ-07, this is an open seat Democrats were once hoping they would win comfortably - but the only polls we have seen point to a dead heat, and the DCCC has already invested hundreds of thousands of dollars. One key factor here is the candidates' own financial situation. Democratic candidate Adler has a significant fundraising advantage, and it is unlikely his Republican opponent can pull this out unless he benefits from the NRCC's help. This race could soon move back to the lean take-over column if the NRCC does not invest in the district.
NJ-07 (Open, last updated October 5th): The situation in this Dem-leaning district parallels that of NJ-03: an open seat it should be winning more easily that the DCCC is pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars in. Here again, spending disparities could make a difference: this is a very expensive district to play in because it falls in the New York City market, and that could prove all Democrats need to eek out a victory. However, Republican hopes rest on the high negatives Linda Stender earned from her 2006 race, when the GOP had played on the "pun" Stender/Spender to tag her as a "big spender." The Republicans are using the same strategy this year in a childish but effective ad campaign.
NM-02 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): The Democratic candidate, wealthy oil executive (and self-funder) Harry Teague, looks surprisingly strong. A recent independent poll even found him with a narrow lead. Republican Ed Tinsley, who also has ties to the oil industry and who is also self-funding part of his campaign, is not able to rely on the district's strong Republican lean because Teague has a base of conservative supporters from his days as the county commissioner of a Republican area. The DCCC is helping Teague and has already invested more than a quarter-million dollars.
NY-26 (Open, polls): This has been one of the most eventful races over the past two months. When Tom Reynolds announced he would retire, Democrats sensed this was a big opportunity for them to continue their take-over of New York politics. But when the DCCC's favored candidate Jon Powers and multi-millionaire Jack Davis spent weeks hurling insults at each other, a third candidate, environment attorney Alice Kryzan, came out of nowhere to win the Democratic nod. But the DCCC is remaining committed to contesting the district and is now on air against GOP nominee Chris Lee; Kryzan is also being boosted by Emily's List. A recent independent poll conducted by SUSA found Lee leading by double-digits, but Democrats got good news recently when Jon Powers removed himself from the Working Families Parties party ballot line and will not play spoiler.
OH-01 (Rep. Chabot, polls, last updated October 5th): Chabot barely survived in 2006, and he has just as difficult a race to deal with this year. More than in most House races, the result could depend on Barack Obama's coattails. This district has a substantial African-American population, and Obama's ground game will thus heavily target sporadic black voters here; any increase in the share of black voters would naturally boost House candidate Driehaus.
PA-03 (Rep. English, last updated October 5th): Who knew? While this district had long been on the list of vulnerable seats, few people expected English to be this obviously vulnerable months from the election. But not only does English now trail in an independent poll, he is also the beneficiary of the NRCC's first (and so far only) defensive ad buy. That is certainly welcome help for English, but it is also a testament to how weak his standing is. The GOP is hoping to move quickly to define Dahlkemper, but the DCCC is pouring in money of its own.
WY-AL (Open)

Democratic seats, Toss-up (7)

AL-05 (Open, last updated October 5th): Democrats thought that they had built a slight edge in the toughest open seat they are defending, but Republicans are now going all out against Parker Griffith. GOP candidate Wayne Parker has obtained an internal peer review from Griffith's radiation oncologist days. The document charges that Griffith under-radiated patients at his cancer treatment center in order to charge them more money; Parker is running an ad devoted to the issue, and Democrats have been forced on the defensive.
GA-08 (Rep. Marshall, last updated October 5th): How will the politics of the bailout impact Marshall's reelection race? He is one of the rare vulnerable incumbents to have voted "yes" on both House votes, and he quickly went up with an ad explaining his decision. That is a clear sign that Marshall is worried his opponent (who came out in opposition to the bailout, though only after the first House vote) could make this into a powerful campaign issue.
KS-02 (Rep. Boyda, polls)
LA-06 (Rep. Cazayoux, last updated October 18th): Rep. Cazayoux became one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents when fellow Democrat Michael Jackson announced he would mount an independent bid. In this Republican a district, a Democrat needs to mobilize the African-Amerian vote, and Jackson’s candidacy threatens to divide a key constituency. Yet, Democrats have released two internal polls over the past few months showing Cazayoux crushing GOP candidate Bill Cassidy, with Jackson in single digits. I have trouble believing that two Democratic candidates could receive 30% more than the Republican nominee in a district that gave Bush 59% of the vote in 2004, but the GOP has not released an internal poll of their own. I might not (yet) moving LA-06 to lean Democratic, but it is clear that Cassidy does not have the edge I thought he would.
NH-01 (Rep. Shea-Porter, polls, last updated October 5th): Former Rep. Jeb Bradley narrowly won the Republican primary and earned a rematch against Carol Shea-Porter. Recent polls have shown a horse race, with Shea-Porter trailing in UNH and leading by 1% in Research 2000. The outcome of this election will probably be decided by whether the GOP brand has improved among New Hampshire independents over the past two years. The DCCC has already poured in nearly $700,000 to help Shea-Porter.
WI-8 (Rep. Kagen, polls, last updated October 5th): This is the first Democratic-held district that the NRCC invested in, a sure sign that the GOP believes this is a true opportunity. The DCCC is helping Kagen, but they have not released their own polls of the race - something the GOP has been willing to do, pointing to a dead heat.

Republican seats, Lean retention (11)

AZ-03 (Rep. Shadegg, last updated October 5th): Another stunning no one expected to be competitive this late in the cycle, but the DCCC's unexpected decision to dump more than $200,000 in an ad buy against Shadegg suggests that the veteran Republican incumbent is more endangered than commonly thought.
KY-02 (Open, polls, last updated October 18th): This seat was the most chaotic of the cycle until NY-13 came around, and Democrats were excited that they had an excellent chance in this conservative a district. Polls taken throughout the spring and the summer suggested that state Senator Boswell had a slight lead. Yet, this is one the rare districts that have moved towards the GOP over the past few weeks. (SUSA has GOP candidate state Senator Guthrie gaining for the second month in a row to jump to a 9% lead, and the Boswell campaign’s internal numbers have the Democrat’s lead falling from 7% to 1%, with a lot of undecideds. This is an open seat in a conservative area, making it likely that undecideds would break towards Guthrie.) One possible explanation for Guthrie gains’ is that the DCCC’s involvement here has backfired: the committee’s attack ads were blasted as untrustworthy by the local media, putting Boswell on the defensive.
ID-01 (Rep. Sali, polls, last updated October 5th): In 2004, Bush got 69% of the vote in this district, but Rep. Sali is so hated by the state's Republican establishment that a Democrat actually has a chance of pulling a giant upset. Two internal polls for the Minnick campaign show him with a narrow lead over Sali. However, Minnick is in the low 40s in both polls - and the undecided voters are likely to be Republicans who can't yet get themselves to admit they will vote for Sali. And the DCCC has not invested anything in this race since a small media buy in early August.
IN-03 (Rep. Souder, last updated October 18th): This is an extremely Republican district (Bush got 68% of the vote in 2004), and that is precisely why it was so surprising that Rep. Souder was held to 54% of the vote in 2006 against a massively underfunded Democratic opponent. This year, Souder is facing Mike Montagano, perhaps not a top-tier candidate but certainly a credible one. And contrary to the 2006 candidate, Montagano will be funded: The DCCC has decided to invest in the race, in what is perhaps the biggest surprise of the past week. The committee has already bought $150,000 worth of advertisement and more is on the way. A recent internal poll for Montagano had Souder leading by 5%, though the trendline favored the Democrat: Souder retains an edge, but the race has suddenly become very competitive.
MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann, last updated October 11th): Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg is a solid contender but he had failed to get much traction up until now, and Rep. Bachmann was considered relatively safe this year, but the NRCC evidently does not feel this way as they are reportedly divesting resources out of highly competitive MN-03 and into MN-06. That will certainly help protect Bachmann (especially if the DCCC doesn't move in) but it still signals that she is more endangered than expected.
MO-06 (Rep. Graves, polls)
NE-02 (Rep. Terry, last updated October 11th): Democrats have been mentioning this race for a while, but this is conservative enough a district for a Republican incumbent to be given the benefit of the doubt. But the DCCC's unexpected decision to invest significant resources in the race - they have already spent more than $200,000 - puts it on the list of competitive races, especially when you combine the DCCC's investment to Obama's efforts in the state (the presidential campaign has opened 2 field offices in Omaha, forcing Sarah Palin to come and campaign). Democrats are making a rare push to organize Omaha, and that puts NE-02 in play.
NV-02 (Rep. Heller, last updated October 11th): Nevada Democrats are riding the momentum of big registration gains, while Republicans are being weighed down by the unpopularity of their governor, not to mention the GOP's national difficulties. That gives an opening to Jill Derby, who is back for a rematch in this conservative district. An independent poll recently found Rep. Heller leading but under 50% and in single-digits, so the race is certainly competitive.
OH-02 (Rep. Schmidt, last updated October 5th): Schmidt maintains a lead in recent polling, but she remains under 50% - dangerous territory for any incumbent. This confirms that she has been unable to solidify her position in what is a very conservative district. Yet, this is her first time she is running in a presidential year, and McCain's coattails might help. This is one district in which a third party candidacy could affect the final results.
VA-02 (Rep. Drake, last updated October 5th): A recent internal poll for the Nye campaign suggests that Drake isn't as safe as the GOP was hoping she would be, but she does retain an edge. Obama's ground game in the Old Dominion could be very helpful for Nye to score an upset here.
WA-08 (Rep. Reichert, polls, last updated October 11th): This should be one of the Democrats' top priorities this cycle. Rep. Reichert barely survived against Democratic challenger and netroots favorite Darcy Burner in 2006 (51% to 49%) and Burner is back for a rematch. She has proved a solid fundraiser, and Obama should help bring out the Democratic base. In the current pro-Democratic climate, races like this should be moving towards Democrats; yet, multiple independent polls (including a couple from SUSA and one from Research 2000 released this week) find Reichert with a comfortable lead and hovering around the 50% mark. One explanation is that the heavy fire Burner endured in 2006 left her with high negative ratings and too bruised to mount as strong a challenge this year. Second, the Chamber of Commerce is targeting the Democrat with a sizable $400,000 ad buy, while the DCCC has not inexplicably not spent any resources on Burner's behalf.
WV-02 (Rep. Capito)

Democratic seats, Lean retention (8)

AZ-05 (Rep. Mitchell)
CA-11 (Rep. McNerney, last updated October 18th): When Rep. McNerney picked up the seat in 2006, the GOP was determined to make sure he served one term in what is a Republican district. But former state Rep. Dean Andal has not proved as strong a candidate as Republicans were hoping he would be. While he ends up in a competitive position financially as of the end of September, McNerney outspent him 8:1 in the second quarter, which allowed him to solidify his position - especially when you add the almost $1 million of television ads NARPAC is spending on McNerney’s behalf. Meanwhile, a recent SUSA poll gave McNerney an 11% edge.
KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth, polls)
MS-01 (Rep. Childers)
PA-04 (Rep. Altmire, last updated October 5th): This is a high priority district for the GOP, but the fact that the DCCC hasn't spent a dime to help Altmire for now is a good sign for the incumbent. A mid-September internal poll for the campaign of former Rep. Hart showed her trailing by 5%. That certainly means that Altmire is endangered, but for him to have a narrow edge in a Republican poll suggests he starts off with an edge.
PA-10 (Rep. Carney, polls, last updated October 5th): This conservative district is one of the Republicans top targets, but the Democratic incumbent starts with a narrow advantage - as confirmed by the most recent polls. It is in districts such as these that Democratic gains in recent weeks could make themselves felt by immunizing Democrats against Republican attacks. Furthermore, the DCCC knows that Carney is endangered and is pouring in hundreds of thousands of dollars that the RNCC obviously cannot match.

Republican seats, likely retention (23)

AL-03 (Rep. Rogers)
CA-03 (Rep. Lungren, last updated October 18th): In what is a rematch of the 2006 race, GOP Rep. Dan Lungren has not been very worried about this re-election race (he only raised $190,000 in the third quarter) but Democrat Bill Durston no longer appears like the long-shot he was just two weeks ago. An internal Durston poll showed him within 3% of the incumbent; Lungren replied with two internal polls showing him with big leads - but under 50%.
CA-26 (Rep. Dreier, last updated October 18th): Rep. David Dreier has been in office for 28 years in a GOP-leaning district. Should that not be enough to guarantee his re-election? Perhaps in another year, but Dreier is one of many Republicans who should be very careful in the coming weeks. Russ Warner is a credible enough candidate that he could be in a position of making the race unexpectedly competitive if there is a strong blue wave.
CA-46 (Rep. Rohrabacher, last updated October 18th): Rep. Dana Rohrabacher was nowhere on our radar screen, but Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook appears to have a chance at scoring a big upset. While we have gotten no hard numbers from the race, a Capitol Weekly article reveals that Republican internals have the race within the margin of error! Cook’s third quarter fundraising was good, but she ended September with only $30,284. She will need the DCCC’s help to make this any more competitive.
CA-50 (Rep. Bilbray, last updated October 18th): While conservative, this district is not as overwhelmingly Republican than some of the others Democrats are now eying (Bush got 55% of the vote in 2004). Rep. Brian Bilbray got elected in a highly competitive special election in 2006 after the DCCC spent millions on his behalf. Now, there is some buzz forming around Democratic candidate Nick Leibham, who recently released a poll showing Bilbray leading by only 2%. Bilbray quickly responded with an internal survey that had him leading 48% to 35%, a more comfortable margin but another sign that Bilbray isn’t as safe as we thought. The race remains a difficult one for Democrats, but Leibham outraised Bilbray in the third quarter and he could pull off an upset if the DCCC joins in the fun.
FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan, last updated October 5th): Independent polls show Buchanan with a large lead over Jennings in this rematch of a controversial 2006 race. Complicating matters for Jennings is that Jan Schneider, the Democratic nominee in 2002 and 2004, will be on the ballot as an independent. She is expected to draw a substantial enough share of the vote to make the electoral math very difficult for Jennings to pull off.
FL-15 (open)
FL-18 (Rep. Ros-Lehtinen, polls, last updated October 5th): The third of the three Southern Florida districts, FL-18 is also the least competitive. Democratic candidate Annette Taddeo is a favorite of the netroots, but Ros-Lehtinen has simply shown little sign of vulnerability for now. The latest polls have her ahead by commanding margins.
IL-06 (Rep. Roskam)
IL-18 (Open, last updated October 5th): Aaron Schock is on his way to becoming the youngest members of the 111th Congress. An internal poll for his campaign finds him ahead by 30%, and, while that might be an exaggerated lead, Democrats have not released an internal poll of their own that would contradict those results. Perhaps the best sign of Democratic desperation came when Democratic candidate Callahan released a remake of the Daisy ad.
LA-07 (Rep. Boustany)
NC-10 (Rep. McHenry, last updated October 18th): Rep. McHenry has been mentioned as a potentially vulnerable Republican incumbent for months, but in a district that Bush won with 67% of the vote in 2004, a GOP candidate is allowed the benefit of the doubt. Yet, Democrats believe their candidate Daniel Johnson has a chance at offsetting the district’s Republican balance. Given how much progress Democrats appear to have made in the state, that is certainly possible. Johnson has been added to the Red to Blue program, and he will need DCCC spending to make this really competitive.
OH-07 (Open)
OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette)
PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach)
PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
VA-05 (Rep. Goode)
VA-10 (Rep. Wolf)
SC-01 (Rep. Brown, last updated October 18th): This is a heavy Republican district (it gave 61% of its vote to Bush in 2004) and Rep. Brown was certainly not supposed to face a competitive race. He was unopposed in 2004 and got 60% of the vote two years later. But Democrats are running a very wealthy candidate, Linda Ketner, who is spending a lot of her own money (she outspent Brown 3:1 in the third quarter). In a Democratic year, that at least gives her a fighting chance.
SC-02 (Rep. Wilson, last updated October 18th): This race is even more of a long-shot than SC-01 because Democratic candidate Rob Miller does not have the financial advantage enjoyed by Linda Ketner, but Rep. Joe Wilson should nonetheless be careful. This is a district where an increased share in black turnout could have a big impact, as a quarter of the district’s residents is African-American.
TX-07 (Rep. Culberson, last updated October 11th): An independent poll showing a single-digit race and an incumbent under 50% is enough to warrant a race a place in these ratings. This contest could still move up depending on how aggressive Democrats are at pursuing it, but this is certainly an unlikely district for them to score a pick-up.
TX-10 (Rep. McCaul):

Democratic seats, likely retention (14)

AZ-08 (Rep. Giffords, polls, last updated October 18th): Republicans had high hope for state Senate President Tim Bee, but Rep. Giffords looks too strong for the GOP to defeat in this Democratic year - not to mention that Giffords has been one of the strongest fundraisers among endangered Democrats. Now, the DCCC has canceled the rest of its TV reservations after spending more than $300,000 helping Giffords, a sure sign that national Democrats feel confident about Giffords’ prospects. The NRCC cannot come to Bee’s help, meaning that the two candidates are now on their own - and Giffords had far more cash on hand at the end of September than her opponent.
CT-05 (Rep. Murphy)
GA-12 (Rep. Barrow): Republican John Stone never caught fire in a district that tilts narrowly Democratic. Barrow barely survived in 2006, but he has had two more years to entrench himself since then.
KS-03 (Rep. Moore): There isn't much action in this heavily conservative district that the GOP has been looking.
IL-08 (Rep. Bean)
IN-09 (Rep. Hill, polls, last updated October 11th): Republicans have not been able to gain as much traction as in past years for what is the fourth straight match-up between Baron Hill and Mike Sodrel. Hill won in 2002 and 2006, Sodrel won in 2004. Barack Obama's unexpected strength in the Hoosier State has undercut the GOP's hope that presidential coattails would carry Sodrel through the finish line as they did in 2004, not to mention that Hill will benefit from Obama's strong ground game while the McCain campaign has spent little time organizing Indiana. Recent independent polls have found Hill leading by double-digits.
IL-14 (Rep. Foster)
IN-08 (Rep. Ellsworth)
NH-02 (Rep. Hodes)
MN-01 (Rep. Walz, last updated October 5th): Walz leads by 18% in an internal poll released by his opponent. Enough said.
NY-20 (Rep. Gillibrand, last updated October 18th): Rep. Gillbrand has proved one of the strongest Democratic fundraisers, while Republican candidate Sandy Treadwell has been unable to get much traction - and is unlikely to do so without the NRCC’s help (which will not come). The district might be leaning Republican, but Gillbrand is strongly positioned to win re-election.
OH-18 (Rep. Space)
OR-05 (Open, last updated October 18th): Once one of the Republicans’ top pick-up opportunities, the district is rapidly drifting towards Democrats. Republican candidate Mike Erickson has been involved in a series of (abortion and ethics-related) scandals that have prevented him from gaining any traction and truly endangering state Senator Kirk Schrader, the Democratic nominee. The DCCC isn’t even spending any money on the district, a testament to how comfortable Democrats are feeling about the race. A recent SUSA poll had Schrader leading by 13%.
PA-08 (Rep. Murphy)
TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)

October 11th ratings

2008-10-18T11:11:00.000-07:00

House ratings, October 2008

In the first two weeks after the GOP convention, the party's brand looked to have improved enough to boost the prospects of congressional Republicans. At the very least, it seemed that the long-shot down-the-ballot races (be it the Kentucky and Georgia Senate races or the conservative open seats like MO-09 and AL-02) were getting out of reach for Democrats. But the Republicans' recovery was short lived.

The financial meltdown erased the GOP's early September gains, and the fundamentals once again favor Democrats. We are back to where we were after the spring's three special election: Democrats are in a position to score big gains on Election Day, and districts that would not be competitive in a neutral environment could now fall in Democratic hands. The battle is clearly being waged on Republican turf (34 GOP seats and 11 Democratic seats are highly vulnerable right now) and it could still worsen, as the field of play is shifting towards Democrats.

If the Republicans' situation does not improve over the next four weeks, there is no telling just how low the GOP could sink.

To make matters worse for the GOP, the financial disparity between the DCCC and RNCC is proving to be just as decisive as Republicans feared - and this is an advantage Democrats did not enjoy two years ago. Money counts for more in House races than in Senate and presidential contests, and the DCCC has already flexed its financial muscle by pouring in hundreds of thousands in dozens of districts.

Here is an overview of the current situation:

Likely/Safe Democratic: 221 seats
Lean/Likely/Safe Democratic: 238 seats
Toss-ups: 29 seats
Lean/Likely/Safe Republican: 165 seats
Likely/Safe Republican: 153 seats

---

History of House ratings:

October: Can Democrats keep up the 2006 parallel?
August: Will the DCCC succeed in putting the top tier in play?
June: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York
February: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep clear edge
November: How many more Republican retirements?
October: Democrats feel better as GOP faces worrisome retirements
September: Democrats poised to keep majority

Republican seats, Likely take-over (3)

NY-13 (open, last updated October 5th): Who knew Republicans had it in them to make this race even more chaotic? Just all the spring and summer confusion seemed to have given way to a slow wait for Democrat McMahon's certain victory, a new chapter was written in the civil war of Staten Island's Republican Party when GOP nominee Staniere squashed an attempt to grant him a judicial nomination to perhaps pave the way for Rep. Fossella's return on the ballot.
NY-25 (open, last updated October 5th): An open seat in a blue-leaning district is a gift to Democrats in a year in which they are favored. Note that the DCCC has stepped in and spent more than $100,000 in ads so far; should that be taken as a sign that the race could be tighter than we are thinking or as confirmation that Democrats have enough money for insurance policies? The only potential danger for Democratic candidate Maffei right now is his connection with Rep. Rangel.
VA-11 (open, polls, last updated October 5th): The situation is the same as in NY-25, and the DCCC has spent some money here as well.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (9)

AK-AL (Rep. Young, polls, last updated October 5th): There was much riding on the GOP primary between incumbent Rep. Don Young and Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell. Alaska is conservative, and Republicans would have had an edge had they been able to get rid of their ethically challenged incumbent. It took three weeks for all ballots to be counted in an inexplicably slow process. Don Young finally prevailed by a few hundred votes - and that was great news for Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz, who leads Young in all recent polls. Young is an important figure of Alaska politics, and he could still make a comeback - perhaps fueled by Palin's coattails. That said, Ted Stevens' trial will remind Alaska voters of the corruption problem of state Republicans, and that is bound to hurt Young.
AZ-01 (Open, last updated October 5th): The GOP needed to field strong candidates to have a chance to hold on to these swing open seats, and Sydney Hay is not as strong a contender as Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick. The financial disparity between the two candidates will also make a difference.
CO-04 (Rep. Musgrave, polls, last updated October 5th): Musgrave consistently under-performs her district's Republican lean, and she holds the dubious distinction of being the 2006 House candidate to win with the lowest share of the vote (45%). Now, Democrats are heavily targeting her, and so are independent groups. Musgrave has been targeted by the largest outside expenditure of any district: the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund just bought a stunning $650,000 worth of air time. A late August independent poll and a mid-September Democratic poll found Democratic nominee Betsy Markey leading Musgrave outside of the MoE - never a good place for an incumbent to be.
IL-11 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): In no GOP-held district has the DCCC spent as much money as in IL-11 - about $850,000 already. While this will go a long way towards helping Democratic nominee Debbie Halvorson, GOP nominee Marty Ozinga has deep pockets and could stay competitive financially without the NRCC's help. And considering that this seat seemed all but lost for Republicans a few months ago when they didn't even have a candidate, it is miraculous that they have managed to get Democrats to spend this much money here. Halvorson has been hurt by her belonging to the leadership of the state Democratic Party given the deep unpopularity of Gov. Blagojevich. Competing internal polls in late September showed Halvorson leading by 2% in Ozinga's poll and by 8% in her own.
NM-01 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): GOP nominee Darren White is one of the Republicans' strongest recruits this cycle, and it is unlucky for him he is running in a year whose fundamentals favor Democrats. John Kerry only won the district by 3% in 2004 but Barack Obama could win it by a comfortable margin, and that should help Democratic nominee Martin Heinrich who already appears to have a slight edge. This race remains highly competitive, however, and the DCCC is pouring in hundreds of thousands of dollars already.
NV-03 (Rep. Porter, polls, last updated October 5th): Porter recently decided that it was urgent for him to release an internal poll which shows him leading within the margin error and at a dismal 41%. That tells you just about all you need to know on Porter's vulnerability. The incumbent is being helped by Freedom's Watch, and that money will come in very handy to strike back against the DCCC's attack ads.
NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl, last updated October 11th): Republicans currently hold six seats in the Empire State, and Democrats have been targeting four of them - including three in upstate New York. Of these four seats, NY-29 is the only one featuring an incumbent. Rep. Kuhl barely survived the 2006 cycle, and Democrat Eric Massa is back for a rematch. It is never easy to topple an incumbent, but New York's Republican Party is in disarray and Kuhl looks highly vulnerable. Three polls released over the past week (one by SUSA, one by Research 2000 and one released by Democrats) show Massa leading outside of the margin of error, with Kuhl in the low 40s. That's not a good place to be for an incumbent. Add to that the DCCC's commitment to fund this race, and Democrats have a slight edge.
OH-15 (Open, last updated October 11th): If the political environment didn't favor Democrats, Republicans would be very well positioned to defy the odds and retain this district. Mary Jo Kilroy hasn't been a strong campaigner (she was favored to pick-up the seat in 2006 but fell short in one of the GOP's most unexpected victories of the cycle) and Republican state Sen. Stivers is a strong recruit. But this is not a neutral year, and any Republican would face an uphill fight in an open seat in a swing district like OH-15. A recent SUSA poll and an internal DCCC poll find Kilroy leading by single-digits, and that is where the race should be on paper as well: Kilroy underperforming but able to hold on to a slight lead. Add to that the DCCC's commitment to win this seat over (they have already spent more than $1 million dollar!), and the picture looks even bleaker for the GOP.
OH-16 (Open, last updated October 5th): Democrats were hoping this would be a fairly easy pick-up, but Republican state Sen. Schuring has stayed alive in a district that tilts Republican at the presidential level. A recent SUSA poll showed that state Sen. Boccieri is ahead, but he has yet to close the deal. The DCCC has already spent more than $800,000 attacking Schuring, and that money could make the difference in absence of a GOP response.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (3)

LA-06 (Rep. Cazayoux, last updated October 5th): Newly representing a heavily Republican Southern district, Cazayoux has to rely on strong support from the district's black electorate but the independent candidacy of African-American lawmaker Michael Jackson complicates that equation. Cazayoux released a poll in September showing him leading by 16%, with 9% for Jackson, but it is difficult to believe that the combined total of two Democratic candidates in such a conservative district could be close to 58%.
PA-11 (Rep. Kanjorski, last updated October 5th): Kanjorski should not be in troube. He is an entrenched Democratic incumbent whose district is not particularly conservative running in a year that is shaping up to be a strong one for Democrats. But the fact that he has not faced a competitive challenge for years has weakened his hold on the district and it might already be too late for him to save himself. Lou Barletta, the very conservative Republican candidate, is leading in most polls - and an independent survey released in September found the incumbent at a truly dismal 35%. Kanjorski's only hope is to ride the DCCC's money to discredit Barletta and eek out a narrow victory; the DCCC has indeed been pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars for months now in attack ads against Barletta, and the most recent spots - hitting Barletta for supporting the privatization of Social Security - could be particularly damaging in this electoral climate. One important question is how the electorate will react to Kanjorski's leading role in crafting the bailout.
TX-22 (Rep. Lampson, last updated October 5th): Lampson's hope for survival rests in the parties' financial disparities - if the DCCC spends heavily on his behalf and the GOP fails to answer, could he survive in what is a very heavily conservative district? Unfortunately for Lampson, Freedom's Watch is ensuring a Republican presence on the air.

Republican seats, Toss-up (22)

AL-02 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): Bobby Bright is perhaps the only Democrat who could have made this heavily conservative district competitive - perhaps because he is not a Democrat to start with. But competitive it is! The Montgomery mayor will also be helped by the endorsement of an important Republican mayor from the district, and his financial situation is boosted by the DCCC's investment.
CA-04 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): This is a heavily Republican district, and the GOP candidate is an important figure in the state's conservative circles. But the ethical trouble of outgoing Rep. Doolittle have given Democrats an opening, and their candidate Charlie Brown has already introduced himself to the district's voters (he got 46% of the vote in 2006). The GOP thinks it built an advantage by using footage of Charlie Brown in military uniform at an anti-war rally, but recent surveys have found a dead heat, with internal polls for both campaigns finding their candidates holding the edge and an independent survey giving a slight edge to Brown.
CT-04 (Rep. Shays, last updated October 5th): As expected, this race is proving contentious. The only available poll shows the two tied, and they are on equal footing financially, and the DCCC's money is being outmatched by a big investment on Shay's behalf (more than $500,000) by the National Association of Realtors PAC.
FL-08 (Rep. Keller, last updated October 5th): This Orlando-based district is one of the most worrisome developments for House Republicans. Ric Keller was not expected to be so obviously vulnerable, but his weakness became evident in his primary, when he only received 55% of the vote against a weak opponent. Now, he is facing Alan Grayson, a wealthy Democratic businessman who recently released a poll finding him narrowly ahead of the incumbent (Republicans have not released a counter-poll). Keller hopes he can eek out a win because of Grayson's outspokenly liberal record, particularly his opposition to the Iraq War and his connection to Code Pink. But can a Democrat really suffer this year for having opposed the war?
FL-21 (Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, polls, last updated October 5th): An early September SUSA poll found Democratic challenger Raul Martinez with a tiny lead, removing any doubt that this Southern Florida district is a prime pick-up opportunity. Diaz-Balart's hope for survival rests on the high negatives Martinez earned during his controversial tenures as the mayor of Hialeah. Diaz-Balart's ads have accused Martinez of using his office for financial gain and have hinted at his involvement in drug trafficking! Meanwhile, an independent Cuban-American group is hitting Diaz-Balart for adopting too strict a line on US-Cuba relations, and Patriot Majority is running spots on Martinez's behalf.
FL-24 (Rep. Feeney, last updated October 5th): Whenever an incumbent feels the need to release an ad saying “I’m very sorry” a few weeks from Election Day, you can be sure that his internal polls show him in big trouble. Ever since lobbyist Jack Abramoff has been under the spotlight, Feeney has faced ethics questions over a 2003 golfing trip he took to Scotland and that was paid by Abramoff; and in mid-September, he took the dramatic (and rather desperate) move of airing a 30-second ad directly addressing this story and apologizing for the “rookie mistake” and for having “embarrassed” himself and his constituents. This forces an issue at the center of the political discussion, and it also means that Feeney (who was already being outraised by his opponent Suzanne Kosmas) is blowing a significant amount of his cash on hand for this ad. The DCCC is now up on air against Feeney, blasting him as "one of the most corrupt politicians." This doesn't look good for the incumbent.
FL-25 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, polls, last updated October 5th): The dynamics of the race are very similar to those of FL-21, as the second of the Diaz-Balart brothers also faces a challenge to his hold on Cuban-American votes. Polling has shown the race is tight, but the main difference plays to the Republican's disadvantage: Democratic candidate Joe Garcia isn't as controversial a figure as Raul Martinez, and that gives the GOP fewer openings.
IL-10 (Rep. Kirk)
KY-02 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): Few people expected this district to be this competitive when Rep. Lewis announced his retirement at the beginning of the year, but there is no doubt that it has turned into a crucial battleground: polls have shown a dead heat for months, and the DCCC decided to invest in the district last week - a stunning development given how Republican this area is. However, the DCCC's first move backfired when local TV stations refused to air an ad attacking Republican candidate Guthrie, allowing him to claim the high ground.
LA-04 (Open, last updated October 5th): The primary was only held on October 4th (it was postponed because of Hurricane Ike) and the nominee of both parties will be decided in a runoff. The good news for Democrats is that Paul Carmouche, a DA with strong name recognition, is almost assured of winning his party's nod on November 4th as he got 48% of the vote yesterday; the Republican primary should be more contentious, as the top two candidates came within a few percentage points of each other. The general election will be held on December 6th, which should help Carmouche overcome the district's conservative lean.
MI-07 (Rep. Walberg, polls, last updated October 5th): Not only are polls showing a tight race in this conservative-leaning district, but McCain's sudden and unexpected decision to pull out of Michigan leaves a void in the Republican ground game in the Wolverine State - and that could prove a huge headache for the state's down-ballot Republicans.
MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg, last updated October 11th): Rep. Knollenberg's prospects have collapsed over the past month. This is a swing district (Bush prevailed with 51% of the vote in 2004), and it is filled with Reagan Democrats - one of the constituencies that have been moving to the Democratic Party because of the financial crisis. And McCain's decision to pull out of the state is devastating for Knollenberg, who was partly relying on the presidential campaign's turnout effort to mobilize his own supporters. Democratic candidate Peters has been polling ahead or even; Peters leads by 11% in a DCCC poll, but the DCCC's internal numbers in many districts have been far more favorable for Democrats than those of other firms; an independent poll and an internal poll for Peters find the race within single digits. That sounds more believable, but what also seems certain is that Knollenberg is way under 50% - in fact, he looks to be stuck in the low 40s, deadly territory for an incumbent, especially when he can't count on a superior ground game to help him.
MN-03 (Open, last updated October 5th): The battle lines have been drawn for months in a district that is one of the ultimate battlegrounds of this year's House battle, and a recent SUSA poll showed the race within the margin of error. The local Republican Party has been justly denounced for running a racialized campaign, hinting that Indian-American Democratic candidate Ashwin Madia does not fit "the demographics of the district" and even criticizing the young veteran of the Iraq War for not being married.
NC-08 (Rep. Hayes, polls, last updated October 5th): The DCCC's refusal to invest anything in this district in 2006 surely cost them one more pick-up, as Larry Kissell was about 300 votes away from unseating the incumbent. This year, the DCCC is taking this district seriously and is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars attacking Hayes. Those ads appear to be taking their toll, as Hayes's own internal polls have shown him leading within the margin of error. Kissell's latest internal shows him with a comfortable lead.
NJ-03 (Open, last updated October 5th): Along with the two Ohio open seats, IL-11 and NJ-07, this is an open seat Democrats were once hoping they would win comfortably - but the only polls we have seen point to a dead heat, and the DCCC has already invested hundreds of thousands of dollars. One key factor here is the candidates' own financial situation. Democratic candidate Adler has a significant fundraising advantage, and it is unlikely his Republican opponent can pull this out unless he benefits from the NRCC's help. This race could soon move back to the lean take-over column if the NRCC does not invest in the district.
NJ-07 (Open, last updated October 5th): The situation in this Dem-leaning district parallels that of NJ-03: an open seat it should be winning more easily that the DCCC is pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars in. Here again, spending disparities could make a difference: this is a very expensive district to play in because it falls in the New York City market, and that could prove all Democrats need to eek out a victory. However, Republican hopes rest on the high negatives Linda Stender earned from her 2006 race, when the GOP had played on the "pun" Stender/Spender to tag her as a "big spender." The Republicans are using the same strategy this year in a childish but effective ad campaign.
NM-02 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): The Democratic candidate, wealthy oil executive (and self-funder) Harry Teague, looks surprisingly strong. A recent independent poll even found him with a narrow lead. Republican Ed Tinsley, who also has ties to the oil industry and who is also self-funding part of his campaign, is not able to rely on the district's strong Republican lean because Teague has a base of conservative supporters from his days as the county commissioner of a Republican area. The DCCC is helping Teague and has already invested more than a quarter-million dollars.
NY-26 (Open, polls): This has been one of the most eventful races over the past two months. When Tom Reynolds announced he would retire, Democrats sensed this was a big opportunity for them to continue their take-over of New York politics. But when the DCCC's favored candidate Jon Powers and multi-millionaire Jack Davis spent weeks hurling insults at each other, a third candidate, environment attorney Alice Kryzan, came out of nowhere to win the Democratic nod. But the DCCC is remaining committed to contesting the district and is now on air against GOP nominee Chris Lee; Kryzan is also being boosted by Emily's List. A recent independent poll conducted by SUSA found Lee leading by double-digits, but Democrats got good news recently when Jon Powers removed himself from the Working Families Parties party ballot line and will not play spoiler.
OH-01 (Rep. Chabot, polls, last updated October 5th): Chabot barely survived in 2006, and he has just as difficult a race to deal with this year. More than in most House races, the result could depend on Barack Obama's coattails. This district has a substantial African-American population, and Obama's ground game will thus heavily target sporadic black voters here; any increase in the share of black voters would naturally boost House candidate Driehaus.
PA-03 (Rep. English, last updated October 5th): Who knew? While this district had long been on the list of vulnerable seats, few people expected English to be this obviously vulnerable months from the election. But not only does English now trail in an independent poll, he is also the beneficiary of the NRCC's first (and so far only) defensive ad buy. That is certainly welcome help for English, but it is also a testament to how weak his standing is. The GOP is hoping to move quickly to define Dahlkemper, but the DCCC is pouring in money of its own.
WY-AL (Open)

Democratic seats, Toss-up (7)

AL-05 (Open, last updated October 5th): Democrats thought that they had built a slight edge in the toughest open seat they are defending, but Republicans are now going all out against Parker Griffith. GOP candidate Wayne Parker has obtained an internal peer review from Griffith's radiation oncologist days. The document charges that Griffith under-radiated patients at his cancer treatment center in order to charge them more money; Parker is running an ad devoted to the issue, and Democrats have been forced on the defensive.
CA-11 (Rep. McNerney)
FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney, last updated October 5th): Republicans nominated attorney Tom Rooney as their candidate, and everything points to a highly competitive race in Mark Foley's old district. Mahoney has never been a strong candidate for Democrats, but I am downgrading the race because Rooney's recent internal poll showing Mahoney with a 7% lead showed that I had gotten ahead of myself in rating the contest lean take-over.
GA-08 (Rep. Marshall, last updated October 5th): How will the politics of the bailout impact Marshall's reelection race? He is one of the rare vulnerable incumbents to have voted "yes" on both House votes, and he quickly went up with an ad explaining his decision. That is a clear sign that Marshall is worried his opponent (who came out in opposition to the bailout, though only after the first House vote) could make this into a powerful campaign issue.
KS-02 (Rep. Boyda, polls)
NH-01 (Rep. Shea-Porter, polls, last updated October 5th): Former Rep. Jeb Bradley narrowly won the Republican primary and earned a rematch against Carol Shea-Porter. Recent polls have shown a horse race, with Shea-Porter trailing in UNH and leading by 1% in Research 2000. The outcome of this election will probably be decided by whether the GOP brand has improved among New Hampshire independents over the past two years. The DCCC has already poured in nearly $700,000 to help Shea-Porter.
WI-8 (Rep. Kagen, polls, last updated October 5th): This is the first Democratic-held district that the NRCC invested in, a sure sign that the GOP believes this is a true opportunity. The DCCC is helping Kagen, but they have not released their own polls of the race - something the GOP has been willing to do, pointing to a dead heat.

Republican seats, Lean retention (12)

AZ-03 (Rep. Shadegg, last updated October 5th): Another stunning no one expected to be competitive this late in the cycle, but the DCCC's unexpected decision to dump more than $200,000 in an ad buy against Shadegg suggests that the veteran Republican incumbent is more endangered than commonly thought.
ID-01 (Rep. Sali, polls, last updated October 5th): In 2004, Bush got 69% of the vote in this district, but Rep. Sali is so hated by the state's Republican establishment that a Democrat actually has a chance of pulling a giant upset. Two internal polls for the Minnick campaign show him with a narrow lead over Sali. However, Minnick is in the low 40s in both polls - and the undecided voters are likely to be Republicans who can't yet get themselves to admit they will vote for Sali. And the DCCC has not invested anything in this race since a small media buy in early August.
MD-01 (Open, last updated October 5th): It seems incredible that such a conservative and gerrymandered district would be this competitive, but Democrats are sensing that the divisive GOP primary in which Andy Harris knocked off a moderate Republican incumbent is a golden opportunity for them to make a move and see if they can take advantage of GOP divisions. After all, outgoing Rep. Gilchrest endorsed Democratic candidate Kratovil. And the DCCC confirmed that they were taking this race seriously - and not just for spinning purposes - by unexpectedly starting to air ads in the district in late September.
MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann, last updated October 11th): Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg is a solid contender but he had failed to get much traction up until now, and Rep. Bachmann was considered relatively safe this year, but the NRCC evidently does not feel this way as they are reportedly divesting resources out of highly competitive MN-03 and into MN-06. That will certainly help protect Bachmann (especially if the DCCC doesn't move in) but it still signals that she is more endangered than expected.
MO-06 (Rep. Graves, polls)
MO-09 (Open, polls, last updated October 5th): This district remains conservative-leaning, and that should be enough to power Republican candidate Luetkemeyer to victory. Two independent polls conducted in September - during the GOP's short-lived recovery - suggest that Luetkemeyer has a relatively comfortable lead. But this is a district in which the financial crisis could have an effect. For one, it could immunize Democratic candidate Judy Baker from attacks on her liberal record; second, it has given the DCCC an opening to attack Luetkemeyer on Social Security, an issue that is always a winner for Democrats. That the DCCC is spending any money on this district is a story in and of itself, and will help Baker make up some of the district's Republican lean.
NE-02 (Rep. Terry, last updated October 11th): Democrats have been mentioning this race for a while, but this is conservative enough a district for a Republican incumbent to be given the benefit of the doubt. But the DCCC's unexpected decision to invest significant resources in the race - they have already spent more than $200,000 - puts it on the list of competitive races, especially when you combine the DCCC's investment to Obama's efforts in the state (the presidential campaign has opened 2 field offices in Omaha, forcing Sarah Palin to come and campaign). Democrats are making a rare push to organize Omaha, and that puts NE-02 in play.
NV-02 (Rep. Heller, last updated October 11th): Nevada Democrats are riding the momentum of big registration gains, while Republicans are being weighed down by the unpopularity of their governor, not to mention the GOP's national difficulties. That gives an opening to Jill Derby, who is back for a rematch in this conservative district. An independent poll recently found Rep. Heller leading but under 50% and in single-digits, so the race is certainly competitive.
OH-02 (Rep. Schmidt, last updated October 5th): Schmidt maintains a lead in recent polling, but she remains under 50% - dangerous territory for any incumbent. This confirms that she has been unable to solidify her position in what is a very conservative district. Yet, this is her first time she is running in a presidential year, and McCain's coattails might help. This is one district in which a third party candidacy could affect the final results.
VA-02 (Rep. Drake, last updated October 5th): A recent internal poll for the Nye campaign suggests that Drake isn't as safe as the GOP was hoping she would be, but she does retain an edge. Obama's ground game in the Old Dominion could be very helpful for Nye to score an upset here.
WA-08 (Rep. Reichert, polls, last updated October 11th): This should be one of the Democrats' top priorities this cycle. Rep. Reichert barely survived against Democratic challenger and netroots favorite Darcy Burner in 2006 (51% to 49%) and Burner is back for a rematch. She has proved a solid fundraiser, and Obama should help bring out the Democratic base. In the current pro-Democratic climate, races like this should be moving towards Democrats; yet, multiple independent polls (including a couple from SUSA and one from Research 2000 released this week) find Reichert with a comfortable lead and hovering around the 50% mark. One explanation is that the heavy fire Burner endured in 2006 left her with high negative ratings and too bruised to mount as strong a challenge this year. Second, the Chamber of Commerce is targeting the Democrat with a sizable $400,000 ad buy, while the DCCC has not inexplicably not spent any resources on Burner's behalf.
WV-02 (Rep. Capito)

Democratic seats, Lean retention (8)

AZ-05 (Rep. Mitchell)
AZ-08 (Rep. Giffords, polls)
KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth, polls)
MS-01 (Rep. Childers)
NY-20 (Rep. Gillibrand)
OR-05 (Open)
PA-04 (Rep. Altmire, last updated October 5th): This is a high priority district for the GOP, but the fact that the DCCC hasn't spent a dime to help Altmire for now is a good sign for the incumbent. A mid-September internal poll for the campaign of former Rep. Hart showed her trailing by 5%. That certainly means that Altmire is endangered, but for him to have a narrow edge in a Republican poll suggests he starts off with an edge.
PA-10 (Rep. Carney, polls, last updated October 5th): This conservative district is one of the Republicans top targets, but the Democratic incumbent starts with a narrow advantage - as confirmed by the most recent polls. It is in districts such as these that Democratic gains in recent weeks could make themselves felt by immunizing Democrats against Republican attacks. Furthermore, the DCCC knows that Carney is endangered and is pouring in hundreds of thousands of dollars that the RNCC obviously cannot match.

Republican seats, likely retention (17)

AL-03 (Rep. Rogers)
FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan, last updated October 5th): Independent polls show Buchanan with a large lead over Jennings in this rematch of a controversial 2006 race. Complicating matters for Jennings is that Jan Schneider, the Democratic nominee in 2002 and 2004, will be on the ballot as an independent. She is expected to draw a substantial enough share of the vote to make the electoral math very difficult for Jennings to pull off.
FL-15 (open)
FL-18 (Rep. Ros-Lehtinen, polls, last updated October 5th): The third of the three Southern Florida districts, FL-18 is also the least competitive. Democratic candidate Annette Taddeo is a favorite of the netroots, but Ros-Lehtinen has simply shown little sign of vulnerability for now. The latest polls have her ahead by commanding margins.
IL-06 (Rep. Roskam)
IL-18 (Open, last updated October 5th): Aaron Schock is on his way to becoming the youngest members of the 111th Congress. An internal poll for his campaign finds him ahead by 30%, and, while that might be an exaggerated lead, Democrats have not released an internal poll of their own that would contradict those results. Perhaps the best sign of Democratic desperation came when Democratic candidate Callahan released a remake of the Daisy ad.
LA-07 (Rep. Boustany)
OH-07 (Open)
OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette)
PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach)
PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
VA-05 (Rep. Goode)
VA-10 (Rep. Wolf)
TX-07 (Rep. Culberson, last updated October 11th): An independent poll showing a single-digit race and an incumbent under 50% is enough to warrant a race a place in these ratings. This contest could still move up depending on how aggressive Democrats are at pursuing it, but this is certainly an unlikely district for them to score a pick-up.
TX-10 (Rep. McCaul):

Democratic seats, likely retention (11)

CT-05 (Rep. Murphy)
GA-12 (Rep. Barrow): Republican John Stone never caught fire in a district that tilts narrowly Democratic. Barrow barely survived in 2006, but he has had two more years to entrench himself since then.
KS-03 (Rep. Moore): There isn't much action in this heavily conservative district that the GOP has been looking.
IL-08 (Rep. Bean)
IN-09 (Rep. Hill, polls, last updated October 11th): Republicans have not been able to gain as much traction as in past years for what is the fourth straight match-up between Baron Hill and Mike Sodrel. Hill won in 2002 and 2006, Sodrel won in 2004. Barack Obama's unexpected strength in the Hoosier State has undercut the GOP's hope that presidential coattails would carry Sodrel through the finish line as they did in 2004, not to mention that Hill will benefit from Obama's strong ground game while the McCain campaign has spent little time organizing Indiana. Recent independent polls have found Hill leading by double-digits.
IL-14 (Rep. Foster)
IN-08 (Rep. Ellsworth)
NH-02 (Rep. Hodes)
MN-01 (Rep. Walz, last updated October 5th): Walz leads by 18% in an internal poll released by his opponent. Enough said.
OH-18 (Rep. Space)
PA-08 (Rep. Murphy)
TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)

October ratings: Can Democrats keep up the 2006 parallel all the way to Nov. 4th?

2008-09-12T08:44:00.000-07:00

It is no surprise, then, that Democrats are in a far stronger position in these new ratings. 10 GOP-held districts are now rated likely or lean take-over, and 24 more can best be described as toss-ups (that might reflect my shyness to give a more precise prognostic, but it is often difficult to better categorize competitive House races due to the dearth of polling data). However, it is highly unlikely that Democrats can pull off their 2006 feat, when they didn't lose a single seat of their own: 3 Dem-held seats are currently rated lean take-over, and 8 are toss-ups.

That said, the battle is clearly being waged on Republican turf - 34 GOP seats are highly vulnerable right now, versus only 11 held by Democrats. And the field of play is continuing to shift towards Democrats: 11 GOP-held seats have been upgraded to a more vulnerable category (versus only 3 for Democrats), and 10 Dem-heldhave been downgraded (versus only 2 for Republicans).

If the Republicans' situation does not improve over the next four weeks, there is no telling just how low the GOP could sink.

To make matters worse for Republicans, the financial disparity between the DCCC and RNCC is proving to be just as decisive as Republicans feared - and this is an advantage Democrats did not enjoy two years ago. Money counts for more in House races than in Senate and presidential contests, and the DCCC has already flexed its financial muscle by pouring in hundreds of thousands in dozens of districts.

They are strengthening vulnerable Democratic incumbents, and they are targeting many GOP-held seats, some of which are obviously competitive (IL-11, OH-15, OH-16, NJ-03...), some of which shouldn't even be on the map (MD-01, AL-02, KY-02, AZ-03...). Meanwhile, the NRCC has only been able to budget expenditures in two districts - WI-08 and PA-03.

Meanwhile, the Sunshine State has emerged as ground zero of the House battle. No less than Florida districts are currently rated lean toss-ups! One is held by Democrats (FL-16) and four by Republicans (FL-08, FL-21, FL-24 and FL-25); Democrats have an outside (though fading) chance in FL-13 and FL-18. It goes without saying that the state of the presidential race and the strength of Obama and McCain's ground game could have an out-sized effect on all of these House races. That Obama now appears to be inching ahead in this state should boost Democratic hopes of picking-up a number of these seats.

In fact, the trickle-down effects of the presidential race will be felt in most of the districts that are listed here. If McCain manages to bring independents back in the GOP's column and benefits from conservative turnout, it could save a number of seats that are now looking very endangered - but that is not where current trends are heading.

---

As always, I have written full descriptions of seats that have made news since early June. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to the seats that saw their ratings change to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

Less vulnerable Democratic seats (10): CT-02, CT-05, IL-08, IN-07, IN-09, KS-03, MN-01, NY-19, PA-04, PA-10
Less vulnerable Republican seats (2): FL-13, IL-18

More vulnerable Democratic seats (3): NH-01, PA-11, WI-08
More vulnerable Republican seats (11): AK-AL, AZ-03, CO-04, FL-08, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, ID-01, LA-04, MD-01, TX-10

Taken off the list: CT-02, IN-02, IN-07, NY-19

Outlook: Democrats pick-up 13-22 seats. My current prediction is a net pick-up of 17, for a 253-182 Democratic majority.

History of House ratings:

August: Will the DCCC succeed in putting the top tier in play?
June: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York
February: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep clear edge
November: How many more Republican retirements?
October: Democrats feel better as GOP faces worrisome retirements
September: Democrats poised to keep majority

Republican seats, Likely take-over (3)

NY-13 (open): Who knew Republicans had it in them to make this race even more chaotic? Just all the spring and summer confusion seemed to have given way to a slow wait for Democrat McMahon's certain victory, a new chapter was written in the civil war of Staten Island's Republican Party when GOP nominee Staniere squashed an attempt to grant him a judicial nomination to perhaps pave the way for Rep. Fossella's return on the ballot.
NY-25 (open): An open seat in a blue-leaning district is a gift to Democrats in a year in which they are favored. Note that the DCCC has stepped in and spent more than $100,000 in ads so far; should that be taken as a sign that the race could be tighter than we are thinking or as confirmation that Democrats have enough money for insurance policies? The only potential danger for Democratic candidate Maffei right now is his connection with Rep. Rangel.
VA-11 (open, polls): The situation is the same as in NY-25, and the DCCC has spent some money here as well.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (7)

AK-AL (Rep. Young, polls): There was much riding on the GOP primary between incumbent Rep. Don Young and Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell. Alaska is conservative, and Republicans would have had an edge had they been able to get rid of their ethically challenged incumbent. It took three weeks for all ballots to be counted in an inexplicably slow process. Don Young finally prevailed by a few hundred votes - and that was great news for Democratic nominee Ethan Berkowitz, who leads Young in all recent polls. Young is an important figure of Alaska politics, and he could still make a comeback - perhaps fueled by Palin's coattails. That said, Ted Stevens' trial will remind Alaska voters of the corruption problem of state Republicans, and that is bound to hurt Young.
AZ-01 (Open): The GOP needed to field strong candidates to have a chance to hold on to these swing open seats, and Sydney Hay is not as strong a contender as Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick. The financial disparity between the two candidates will also make a difference.
CO-04 (Rep. Musgrave, upgraded, polls): Musgrave consistently under-performs her district's Republican lean, and she holds the dubious distinction of being the 2006 House candidate to win with the lowest share of the vote (45%). Now, Democrats are heavily targeting her, and so are independent groups. Musgrave has been targeted by the largest outside expenditure of any district: the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund just bought a stunning $650,000 worth of air time. A late August independent poll and a mid-September Democratic poll found Democratic nominee Betsy Markey leading Musgrave outside of the MoE - never a good place for an incumbent to be.
IL-11 (Open, polls): In no GOP-held district has the DCCC spent as much money as in IL-11 - about $850,000 already. While this will go a long way towards helping Democratic nominee Debbie Halvorson, GOP nominee Marty Ozinga has deep pockets and could stay competitive financially without the NRCC's help. And considering that this seat seemed all but lost for Republicans a few months ago when they didn't even have a candidate, it is miraculous that they have managed to get Democrats to spend this much money here. Halvorson has been hurt by her belonging to the leadership of the state Democratic Party given the deep unpopularity of Gov. Blagojevich. Competing internal polls in late September showed Halvorson leading by 2% in Ozinga's poll and by 8% in her own.
NM-01 (Open, polls, upgraded): GOP nominee Darren White is one of the Republicans' strongest recruits this cycle, and it is unlucky for him he is running in a year whose fundamentals favor Democrats. John Kerry only won the district by 3% in 2004 but Barack Obama could win it by a comfortable margin, and that should help Democratic nominee Martin Heinrich who already appears to have a slight edge. This race remains highly competitive, however, and the DCCC is pouring in hundreds of thousands of dollars already.
NV-03 (Rep. Porter, polls, upgraded): Porter recently decided that it was urgent for him to release an internal poll which shows him leading within the margin error and at a dismal 41%. That tells you just about all you need to know on Porter's vulnerability. The incumbent is being helped by Freedom's Watch, and that money will come in very handy to strike back against the DCCC's attack ads.
OH-16 (Open, upgraded): Democrats were hoping this would be a fairly easy pick-up, but Republican state Sen. Schuring has stayed alive in a district that tilts Republican at the presidential level. A recent SUSA poll showed that state Sen. Boccieri is ahead, but he has yet to close the deal. The DCCC has already spent more than $800,000 attacking Schuring, and that money could make the difference in absence of a GOP response.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (3)

LA-06 (Rep. Cazayoux): Newly representing a heavily Republican Southern district, Cazayoux has to rely on strong support from the district's black electorate but the independent candidacy of African-American lawmaker Michael Jackson complicates that equation. Cazayoux released a poll in September showing him leading by 16%, with 9% for Jackson, but it is difficult to believe that the combined total of two Democratic candidates in such a conservative district could be close to 58%.
PA-11 (Rep. Kanjorski, upgraded): Kanjorski should not be in troube. He is an entrenched Democratic incumbent whose district is not particularly conservative running in a year that is shaping up to be a strong one for Democrats. But the fact that he has not faced a competitive challenge for years has weakened his hold on the district and it might already be too late for him to save himself. Lou Barletta, the very conservative Republican candidate, is leading in most polls - and an independent survey released in September found the incumbent at a truly dismal 35%. Kanjorski's only hope is to ride the DCCC's money to discredit Barletta and eek out a narrow victory; the DCCC has indeed been pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars for months now in attack ads against Barletta, and the most recent spots - hitting Barletta for supporting the privatization of Social Security - could be particularly damaging in this electoral climate. One important question is how the electorate will react to Kanjorski's leading role in crafting the bailout.
TX-22 (Rep. Lampson): Lampson's hope for survival rests in the parties' financial disparities - if the DCCC spends heavily on his behalf and the GOP fails to answer, could he survive in what is a very heavily conservative district? Unfortunately for Lampson, Freedom's Watch is ensuring a Republican presence on the air.

Republican seats, Toss-up (24)

AL-02 (Open, polls): Bobby Bright is perhaps the only Democrat who could have made this heavily conservative district competitive - perhaps because he is not a Democrat to start with. But competitive it is! The Montgomery mayor will also be helped by the endorsement of an important Republican mayor from the district, and his financial situation is boosted by the DCCC's investment.
CA-04 (Open, polls, upgraded): This is a heavily Republican district, and the GOP candidate is an important figure in the state's conservative circles. But the ethical trouble of outgoing Rep. Doolittle have given Democrats an opening, and their candidate Charlie Brown has already introduced himself to the district's voters (he got 46% of the vote in 2006). The GOP thinks it built an advantage by using footage of Charlie Brown in military uniform at an anti-war rally, but recent surveys have found a dead heat, with internal polls for both campaigns finding their candidates holding the edge and an independent survey giving a slight edge to Brown.
CT-04 (Rep. Shays): As expected, this race is proving contentious. The only available poll shows the two tied, and they are on equal footing financially, and the DCCC's money is being outmatched by a big investment on Shay's behalf (more than $500,000) by the National Association of Realtors PAC.
FL-08 (Rep. Keller, upgraded): This Orlando-based district is one of the most worrisome developments for House Republicans. Ric Keller was not expected to be so obviously vulnerable, but his weakness became evident in his primary, when he only received 55% of the vote against a weak opponent. Now, he is facing Alan Grayson, a wealthy Democratic businessman who recently released a poll finding him narrowly ahead of the incumbent (Republicans have not released a counter-poll). Keller hopes he can eek out a win because of Grayson's outspokenly liberal record, particularly his opposition to the Iraq War and his connection to Code Pink. But can a Democrat really suffer this year for having opposed the war?
FL-21 (Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, upgraded, polls): An early September SUSA poll found Democratic challenger Raul Martinez with a tiny lead, removing any doubt that this Southern Florida district is a prime pick-up opportunity. Diaz-Balart's hope for survival rests on the high negatives Martinez earned during his controversial tenures as the mayor of Hialeah. Diaz-Balart's ads have accused Martinez of using his office for financial gain and have hinted at his involvement in drug trafficking! Meanwhile, an independent Cuban-American group is hitting Diaz-Balart for adopting too strict a line on US-Cuba relations, and Patriot Majority is running spots on Martinez's behalf.
FL-24 (Rep. Feeney, upgraded): Whenever an incumbent feels the need to release an ad saying “I’m very sorry” a few weeks from Election Day, you can be sure that his internal polls show him in big trouble. Ever since lobbyist Jack Abramoff has been under the spotlight, Feeney has faced ethics questions over a 2003 golfing trip he took to Scotland and that was paid by Abramoff; and in mid-September, he took the dramatic (and rather desperate) move of airing a 30-second ad directly addressing this story and apologizing for the “rookie mistake” and for having “embarrassed” himself and his constituents. This forces an issue at the center of the political discussion, and it also means that Feeney (who was already being outraised by his opponent Suzanne Kosmas) is blowing a significant amount of his cash on hand for this ad. The DCCC is now up on air against Feeney, blasting him as "one of the most corrupt politicians." This doesn't look good for the incumbent.
FL-25 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, upgraded, polls): The dynamics of the race are very similar to those of FL-21, as the second of the Diaz-Balart brothers also faces a challenge to his hold on Cuban-American votes. Polling has shown the race is tight, but the main difference plays to the Republican's disadvantage: Democratic candidate Joe Garcia isn't as controversial a figure as Raul Martinez, and that gives the GOP fewer openings.
IL-10 (Rep. Kirk)
KY-02 (Open, upgraded, polls): Few people expected this district to be this competitive when Rep. Lewis announced his retirement at the beginning of the year, but there is no doubt that it has turned into a crucial battleground: polls have shown a dead heat for months, and the DCCC decided to invest in the district last week - a stunning development given how Republican this area is. However, the DCCC's first move backfired when local TV stations refused to air an ad attacking Republican candidate Guthrie, allowing him to claim the high ground.
LA-04 (Open, upgraded): The primary was only held on October 4th (it was postponed because of Hurricane Ike) and the nominee of both parties will be decided in a runoff. The good news for Democrats is that Paul Carmouche, a DA with strong name recognition, is almost assured of winning his party's nod on November 4th as he got 48% of the vote yesterday; the Republican primary should be more contentious, as the top two candidates came within a few percentage points of each other. The general election will be held on December 6th, which should help Carmouche overcome the district's conservative lean.
MI-07 (Rep. Walberg, polls, upgraded): Not only are polls showing a tight race in this conservative-leaning district, but McCain's sudden and unexpected decision to pull out of Michigan leaves a void in the Republican ground game in the Wolverine State - and that could prove a huge headache for the state's down-ballot Republicans.
MN-03 (Open): The battle lines have been drawn for months in a district that is one of the ultimate battlegrounds of this year's House battle, and a recent SUSA poll showed the race within the margin of error. The local Republican Party has been justly denounced for running a racialized campaign, hinting that Indian-American Democratic candidate Ashwin Media does not fit "the demographics of the district" and even criticizing the young veteran of the Iraq War for not being married.
NC-08 (Rep. Hayes, polls): The DCCC's refusal to invest anything in this district in 2006 surely cost them one more pick-up, as Larry Kissell was about 300 votes away from unseating the incumbent. This year, the DCCC is taking this district seriously and is spending hundreds of thousands of dollars attacking Hayes. Those ads appear to be taking their toll, as Hayes's own internal polls have shown him leading within the margin of error. Kissell's latest internal shows him with a comfortable lead.
NJ-03 (Open, downgraded): Along with the two Ohio open seats, IL-11 and NJ-07, this is an open seat Democrats were once hoping they would win comfortably - but the only polls we have seen point to a dead heat, and the DCCC has already invested hundreds of thousands of dollars. One key factor here is the candidates' own financial situation. Democratic candidate Adler has a significant fundraising advantage, and it is unlikely his Republican opponent can pull this out unless he benefits from the NRCC's help. This race could soon move back to the lean take-over column if the NRCC does not invest in the district.
NJ-07 (Open): The situation in this Dem-leaning district parallels that of NJ-03: an open seat it should be winning more easily that the DCCC is pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars in. Here again, spending disparities could make a difference: this is a very expensive district to play in because it falls in the New York City market, and that could prove all Democrats need to eek out a victory. However, Republican hopes rest on the high negatives Linda Stender earned from her 2006 race, when the GOP had played on the "pun" Stender/Spender to tag her as a "big spender." The Republicans are using the same strategy this year in a childish but effective ad campaign.
NM-02 (Open, polls, upgraded): The Democratic candidate, wealthy oil executive (and self-funder) Harry Teague, looks surprisingly strong. A recent independent poll even found him with a narrow lead. Republican Ed Tinsley, who also has ties to the oil industry and who is also self-funding part of his campaign, is not able to rely on the district's strong Republican lean because Teague has a base of conservative supporters from his days as the county commissioner of a Republican area. The DCCC is helping Teague and has already invested more than a quarter-million dollars.
NY-26 (Open, polls): This has been one of the most eventful races over the past two months. When Tom Reynolds announced he would retire, Democrats sensed this was a big opportunity for them to continue their take-over of New York politics. But when the DCCC's favored candidate Jon Powers and multi-millionaire Jack Davis spent weeks hurling insults at each other, a third candidate, environment attorney Alice Kryzan, came out of nowhere to win the Democratic nod. But the DCCC is remaining committed to contesting the district and is now on air against GOP nominee Chris Lee; Kryzan is also being boosted by Emily's List. A recent independent poll conducted by SUSA found Lee leading by double-digits, but Democrats got good news recently when Jon Powers removed himself from the Working Families Parties party ballot line and will not play spoiler.
NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl): This race has been somewhat obscured in the fireworks of other New York contests (particularly in the 13th and 26th districts), but this rematch is likely to be very tight. An internal poll for the Massa campaign is the first numbers we have gotten so far, and it shows the Democrat narrowly ahead. Whatever you think of internal polls, an incumbent in the low 40s is clearly vulnerable.
OH-01 (Rep. Chabot, polls): Chabot barely survived in 2006, and he has just as difficult a race to deal with this year. More than in most House races, the result could depend on Barack Obama's coattails. This district has a substantial African-American population, and Obama's ground game will thus heavily target sporadic black voters here; any increase in the share of black voters would naturally boost House candidate Driehaus.
OH-15 (Open): The district represents a disappointing situation for Democrats, who thought Mary Jo Kilroy would have a solid lead by now. Yet, (late entrant) state Senator Stivers is proving to a be a strong candidate, and Kilroy is suffering from the high negatives she accumulated in the 2006 race - negatives the GOP is doing its best to exploit. But the DCCC is pouring in big amounts of money (more than $800,000 so far) most of it devoted to running attack ads against Stivers, and that could very well make the difference.
PA-03 (Rep. English, upgraded): Who knew? While this district had long been on the list of vulnerable seats, few people expected English to be this obviously vulnerable months from the election. But not only does English now trail in an independent poll, he is also the beneficiary of the NRCC's first (and so far only) defensive ad buy. That is certainly welcome help for English, but it is also a testament to how weak his standing is. The GOP is hoping to move quickly to define Dahlkemper, but the DCCC is pouring in money of its own.
WA-08 (Rep. Reichert, polls)
WY-AL (Open)

Democratic seats, Toss-up (8)

AL-05 (Open): Democrats thought that they had built a slight edge in the toughest open seat they are defending, but Republicans are now going all out against Parker Griffith. GOP candidate Wayne Parker has obtained an internal peer review from Griffith's radiation oncologist days. The document charges that Griffith under-radiated patients at his cancer treatment center in order to charge them more money; Parker is running an ad devoted to the issue, and Democrats have been forced on the defensive.
CA-11 (Rep. McNerney)
FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney, downgraded): Republicans nominated attorney Tom Rooney as their candidate, and everything points to a highly competitive race in Mark Foley's old district. Mahoney has never been a strong candidate for Democrats, but I am downgrading the race because Rooney's recent internal poll showing Mahoney with a 7% lead showed that I had gotten ahead of myself in rating the contest lean take-over.
GA-08 (Rep. Marshall): How will the politics of the bailout impact Marshall's reelection race? He is one of the rare vulnerable incumbents to have voted "yes" on both House votes, and he quickly went up with an ad explaining his decision. That is a clear sign that Marshall is worried his opponent (who came out in opposition to the bailout, though only after the first House vote) could make this into a powerful campaign issue.
KS-02 (Rep. Boyda, polls)
NH-01 (Rep. Shea-Porter, polls): Former Rep. Jeb Bradley narrowly won the Republican primary and earned a rematch against Carol Shea-Porter. Recent polls have shown a horse race, with Shea-Porter trailing in UNH and leading by 1% in Research 2000. The outcome of this election will probably be decided by whether the GOP brand has improved among New Hampshire independents over the past two years. The DCCC has already poured in nearly $700,000 to help Shea-Porter.
WI-8 (Rep. Kagen, polls, upgraded): This is the first Democratic-held district that the NRCC invested in, a sure sign that the GOP believes this is a true opportunity. The DCCC is helping Kagen, but they have not released their own polls of the race - something the GOP has been willing to do, pointing to a dead heat.

Republican seats, Lean retention (9)

AZ-03 (Rep. Shadegg, upgraded): Another stunning no one expected to be competitive this late in the cycle, but the DCCC's unexpected decision to dump more than $200,000 in an ad buy against Shadegg suggests that the veteran Republican incumbent is more endangered than commonly thought.
ID-01 (Rep. Sali, polls, upgraded): In 2004, Bush got 69% of the vote in this district, but Rep. Sali is so hated by the state's Republican establishment that a Democrat actually has a chance of pulling a giant upset. Two internal polls for the Minnick campaign show him with a narrow lead over Sali. However, Minnick is in the low 40s in both polls - and the undecided voters are likely to be Republicans who can't yet get themselves to admit they will vote for Sali. And the DCCC has not invested anything in this race since a small media buy in early August.
MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg): Just like Rep. Walberg in MI-07 (see above), Joe Knollenberg will have to overcome the organizational void left by McCain abandoning the state and taking money and staff with him. Knollenberg starts in a slightly strong position than his fellow Michigan Republican, though the economic downturn could prove a weight. Also, the incumbent is one of the bailout "flippers" - he opposed the bailout in the first vote but supported the second bill, giving his opponent an opening.
MD-01 (Open, upgraded): It seems incredible that such a conservative and gerrymandered district would be this competitive, but Democrats are sensing that the divisive GOP primary in which Andy Harris knocked off a moderate Republican incumbent is a golden opportunity for them to make a move and see if they can take advantage of GOP divisions. After all, outgoing Rep. Gilchrest endorsed Democratic candidate Kratovil. And the DCCC confirmed that they were taking this race seriously - and not just for spinning purposes - by unexpectedly starting to air ads in the district in late September.
MO-06 (Rep. Graves, polls)
MO-09 (Open, polls): This district remains conservative-leaning, and that should be enough to power Republican candidate Luetkemeyer to victory. Two independent polls conducted in September - during the GOP's short-lived recovery - suggest that Luetkemeyer has a relatively comfortable lead. But this is a district in which the financial crisis could have an effect. For one, it could immunize Democratic candidate Judy Baker from attacks on her liberal record; second, it has given the DCCC an opening to attack Luetkemeyer on Social Security, an issue that is always a winner for Democrats. That the DCCC is spending any money on this district is a story in and of itself, and will help Baker make up some of the district's Republican lean.
OH-02 (Rep. Schmidt): Schmidt maintains a lead in recent polling, but she remains under 50% - dangerous territory for any incumbent. This confirms that she has been unable to solidify her position in what is a very conservative district. Yet, this is her first time she is running in a presidential year, and McCain's coattails might help. This is one district in which a third party candidacy could affect the final results.
PA-04 (Rep. Altmire, downgraded): This is a high priority district for the GOP, but the fact that the DCCC hasn't spent a dime to help Altmire for now is a good sign for the incumbent. A mid-September internal poll for the campaign of former Rep. Hart showed her trailing by 5%. That certainly means that Altmire is endangered, but for him to have a narrow edge in a Republican poll suggests he starts off with an edge.
VA-02 (Rep. Drake): A recent internal poll for the Nye campaign suggests that Drake isn't as safe as the GOP was hoping she would be, but she does retain an edge. Obama's ground game in the Old Dominion could be very helpful for Nye to score an upset here.
WV-02 (Rep. Capito)

Democratic seats, Lean retention (8)

AZ-05 (Rep. Mitchell)
AZ-08 (Rep. Giffords, polls)
IN-09 (Rep. Hill, downgraded, polls): This is the fourth consecutive match-up between Hill and Sodrel (who won in 2004), and it could be the easiest for Hill to win. Republican hopes to reclaim the district largely rested on the fact that this is a presidential year, and that McCain's coattails could drive Sodrel to victory. But Obama is running 20% ahead of Kerry in the Hoosier State, so the political situation is very different from what Republicans were hoping it would be. SUSA's monthly polling confirms that Hill is favored to keep his seat.
KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth, polls)
MS-01 (Rep. Childers)
NY-20 (Rep. Gillbrand)
OR-05 (Open)
PA-10 (Rep. Carney, downgraded, polls): This conservative district is one of the Republicans top targets, but the Democratic incumbent starts with a narrow advantage - as confirmed by the most recent polls. It is in districts such as these that Democratic gains in recent weeks could make themselves felt by immunizing Democrats against Republican attacks. Furthermore, the DCCC knows that Carney is endangered and is pouring in hundreds of thousands of dollars that the RNCC obviously cannot match.

Republican seats, likely retention (17)

AL-03 (Rep. Rogers)
FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan, downgraded): Independent polls show Buchanan with a large lead over Jennings in this rematch of a controversial 2006 race. Complicating matters for Jennings is that Jan Schneider, the Democratic nominee in 2002 and 2004, will be on the ballot as an independent. She is expected to draw a substantial enough share of the vote to make the electoral math very difficult for Jennings to pull off.
FL-15 (open)
FL-18 (Rep. Ros-Lehtinen, polls): The third of the three Southern Florida districts, FL-18 is also the least competitive. Democratic candidate Annette Taddeo is a favorite of the netroots, but Ros-Lehtinen has simply shown little sign of vulnerability for now. The latest polls have her ahead by commanding margins.
IL-06 (Rep. Roskam)
IL-18 (Open, downgraded): Aaron Schock is on his way to becoming the youngest members of the 111th Congress. An internal poll for his campaign finds him ahead by 30%, and, while that might be an exaggerated lead, Democrats have not released an internal poll of their own that would contradict those results. Perhaps the best sign of Democratic desperation came when Democratic candidate Callahan released a remake of the Daisy ad.
LA-07 (Rep. Boustany)
MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann)
NV-02 (Rep. Heller)
OH-07 (Open)
OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette)
PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach)
PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
VA-05 (Rep. Goode)
VA-10 (Rep. Wolf)
TX-10 (Rep. McCaul, upgraded)

Democratic seats, likely retention (11)

CT-05 (Rep. Murphy, dowgraded)
GA-12 (Rep. Barrow, downgraded): Republican John Stone never caught fire in a district that tilts narrowly Democratic. Barrow barely survived in 2006, but he has had two more years to entrench himself since then.
KS-03 (Rep. Moore, downgraded): There isn't much action in this heavily conservative district that the GOP has been looking.
IL-08 (Rep. Bean, downgraded)
IL-14 (Rep. Foster)
IN-08 (Rep. Ellsworth)
NH-02 (Rep. Hodes)
MN-01 (Rep. Walz, downgraded): Walz leads by 18% in an internal poll released by his opponent. Enough said.
OH-18 (Rep. Space)
PA-08 (Rep. Murphy)
TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)

August ratings: Will the DCCC succeed in putting the third-tier in play?

2008-08-17T11:37:00.000-07:00

The GOP has long faced tough odds in the battle of the House. In an election year that promises to be just as Democratic-leaning than 2006, many vulnerable Republican incumbents chose to retire rather than wage a tough battle. Few high-profile Republicans agreed to jump in the races thus left open or to challenge the Democratic freshmen incumbents that were supposedly so vulnerable. And the fundraising disparity between the DCCC and NRCC was obvious from the first days of financial reports of the 2008 cycle.

The road has not been getting any easier for Republicans. While no new incumbent retired and while GOP chances are improving in high-profile districts (NH-01, LA-06 and PA-11), Democrats are continuing to expand the map. 13 GOP-held seats have been moved to a more vulnerable column since the June ratings - compared to only 2 Dem-held districts. There is now a total of 56 GOP-held seats on this list versus 34 Dem-held seats.

It is unlikely that future cycles would be this skewed towards Democrats, and the DCCC is eager to strike at the core of the GOP base, for it might not have another shot at them for a very long time. In this context, the importance of the financial disparity between the DCCC and the NRCC cannot be overstated: Money counts for more in House races than in Senate and presidential contests, and the DCCC's ability to flex its financial muscle is already evident. Over the past month, the Democratic committee reserved a total of $53 million of air time in 51 districts, 34 of which are currently held by the GOP. That's a very large playing field to invest in.

This money is not an actual buy - only a reservation - and the committee can pull the plug on any of this spending. In fact, it is likely that the millions the DCCC has reserved in seats like NY-13 , IL-14 and NY-25 will not even be spent - as these already look like probable Democratic victories - and that money could be relocated to other races. And consider that the $53 million the DCCC has reserved in the fall is within the $58 million of cash on hand it had at the end of June. If the DCCC keeps up its fundraising of $10 million/month, it could very well follow through on all the money it has already reserved (which would by itself be a huge money bomb) and still have as much as $40 million to spend!

Republicans, on the other hand, will face painful choices. In many conservative districts which lean Republican but in which the Democrats are injecting millions, the GOP candidates will be on their own, fighting the blue wave swamped under Democratic spending. Indeed, if the NRCC spends some of its small war chest on districts like FL-18, LA-07 and NM-02, what money will they have left to help their candidates in more obviously competitive districts - NM-01, KS-02, NY-26 or MO-06?

If the situation becomes bad enough that the GOP has to build a firewall in its third-tier of races (places like FL-18 and ID-01), the first and second-tier might find itself entirely submerged and Democrats might post huge gains. If the country's mood balances itself a little and if John McCain manages to limit the electorate's anti-Republican behavior, the third-tier could find itself much safer than it is now - and the GOP might be able to spend its resources on the first and second-tier, significantly limiting its losses.

So will we have a repeat of 2006, with Republicans powerless to stop the blue tsunami though they will probably score some gains of their own this time? Or a district-by-district battle that will still be fought with a clear Democratic edge? That is the key question of the upcoming months, and the answer will have much to do with the dynamics of the presidential race.

I have written full descriptions of seats that have made news since early June. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to the seats that saw their ratings change to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

Less vulnerable Democratic seats: IL-08, IN-07, PA-07, OR-05
Less vulnerable Republican seats: CA-52, IL-06, MN-06

More vulnerable Democratic seats: LA-06, PA-11
More vulnerable Republican seats: AL-02, AL-03, FL-18, FL-25, LA-07, NV-02, NV-03, NY-29, PA-03, VA-05, VA-10, VA-11, WV-02

Outlook: Democrats pick-up 13-22 seats. My current prediction is a net pick-up of 17, for a 253-182 Democratic majority.

History of House ratings:

June: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York
February: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep clear edge
November: How many more Republican retirements?
October: Democrats feel better as GOP faces worrisome retirements
September: Democrats poised to keep majority

Republican seats, Likely take-over (3)

NY-13 (open): In my previous ratings, I wrote that "in no other seat did Republican chances collapse as much and as quickly as in this Staten Island seat." Little did I know how much further the GOP's chances would collapse. Shortly after, the candidate Republicans had settled on passed away mid-June, leaving the GOP with no candidate once more. Followed a stunning series of Staten Island Republicans refusing to take on the role as the party's sacrificial lamb and an increasingly acrimonious split between the Staten Island GOP and the Conservative Party. They each ended up settling on their own candidate, former state Rep. Robert Staniere for the GOP and retired banker Paul Atanasio for conservatives. That dual candidacy all but guarantees that Democratic candidate Mike McMahon will win in November - but consider that the situation could have gotten worse for the GOP: at some point in June, there was some talk of their endorsing McMahon!
NY-25 (open)
VA-11 (open, upgraded, polls): Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, won a low turnout Democratic primary on July 11th and will now face Republican businessman Keith Fimian, whose main advantage is that he can self-fund a race. In this blue-leaning district in increasingly Democratic Northern Virginia, Connolly is heavily favored and should benefit from the Obama's campaign's focus on NoVa. An internal poll released by the Connolly campaign shows the Democrat leading by 31%.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

AK-AL (Rep. Young, polls): The Republican primary is being held on August 26th, and Rep. Don Young is in great danger against Lieutenant Governor Parnell. The Club for Growth is spending heavily on Parnell's behalf, and Ted Stevens' indictment could not have come at a worst time for Young as it put the focus on the state GOP's corruption scandals. Sarah Palin endorsed Parnell recently, calling him "honest" and "conservative" - a way to highlight the two charges Young faces (overspending and ethics). If Young somehow survives the primary, the race could move to the likely take-over column; if Parnell becomes his party's nominee, Democrats will have a tougher time and the race will become a toss-up. The latest poll has Parnell narrowly ahead of Berkowitz but Young trailing widely.
AZ-01 (Open)
IL-11 (Open)
NJ-03 (Open): Not only are Democrats already favored to pick-up this district, but the DCCC decision to reserve $1.7 million worth of air time in the district should be all state Senator John Adler needs to clinch victory. Sure, the media market is expensive, and the DCCC does not have to spend that money, but when the moment comes for the NRCC to decide which races it will spend its small money on, it is unlikely NJ-03 will make the cut.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (3)

FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)
LA-06 (Rep. Cazayoux, upgraded): Following his special election victory in May, Don Cazayoux was favored to win re-election. But two developments have complicated things for Democrats here. First, Democratic state Rep. Michael Jackson, who was defeated in the Dem primary, decided to run as an independent. He is African-American and represents Baton Rouge, the part of the district in which Cazayoux needs to build huge margins. Second, Woody Jenkins, the GOP nominee in the special election, decided not to run in the special election. Jenkins was a tarnished candidate whose controversial profile doomed Republican chances. The general election will now feature two Democrats and a Republican whose name will not be Jenkins. That could be enough for Bill Cassidy to win the seat back for the GOP.
TX-22 (Rep. Lampson)

Republican seats, Toss-up (15)

AL-02 (Open, upgraded, polls): As expected, Democrats nominated Bobby Bright, the conservative mayor of Montgomery who was affiliated to neither party before he jumped in this race. The Republican candidate is state Senator Jay Love, who survived a contentious primary. This district is so overwhelmingly Republican that it should be impossible for a Democrat to win, but that Bright chose to run as a Democrat suggests otherwise. After all, Bright could just as easily filed as a Republican - and was courted by the NRCC. Three polls of these race were released in the space of 10 days, suggesting that Bright might have an edge: Love had a narrow 2% lead in his campaign's internal poll, but Bright's internal that showed him leading by 10% was confirmed by an independent poll that found the same margin.
CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): In 04 and 06, independent groups attacked Musgrave with some memorable advertisements (most famously this 2004 ad of a Musgrave impersonator stealing from a soldier’s pocket). Now, it looks like Musgrave will be a target of outside groups yet again, with Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund already spending $175,000 on this ad focused on energy issues. The DCCC has already reserved $600,000 worth of advertisement in this district, not a huge amount considering that the Denver market is not cheap, but a strong start that should boost Betsy Markey's efforts.
CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
IL-10 (Rep. Kirk)
MN-03 (Open)
NC-8 (Rep. Hayes, polls)
NJ-07 (Open)
NM-01 (Open, polls): When Heather Wilson announced she would not run for re-election, most Democrats expected this seat to be a relatively easy pick-up. But Darren White is one of the only strong recruitment coups of the NRCC this cycle, and it seems like he will at least succeed at keeping the race close. The two campaigns exchanged dueling internal polls in July showing their own candidate in the lead.
NV-03 (Rep. Porter, upgraded): Rep. Porter barely survived his 2006 re-election race against a political newcomer and his district has gotten much more Democratic since then. Highly-touted Democratic candidate Robert Daskas dropped out in April, leading to Senate Minority Leader and former gubernatorial candidate Dona Titus to join the race. Titus is a high-profile candidate who guarantees the race remains in the spotlight. Nevada Democrats are especially interested in defeating Porter this year, as he would be one of the toughest challengers for Senator Harry Reid in 2010. An internal poll released by the Titus campaign showed the Democrat narrowly ahead.
NY-26 (Open): We will know more about this race after the primaries decide which Democrat will move on to the general election: Iraq War veteran Jon Power or controversial self-funder Jack Davis, who is injecting millions of his own money in the race after getting the Supreme Court to struck down the Millionaire's amendment?
NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl, upgraded): The DCCC has reserved $2.7 million in the upstate New York media market, a sum that can be spent on this race, as well as NY-25 and NY-26. It is unlikely that Maffei will need that much money in NY-25, meaning that Eric Massa will receive a prodigious amount of money from the national party. Considering the state of disarray New York Republicans are in, that could be enough for Democrats to complete the job they started in 2006, when Kuhl survived by 2%. For now, the election is being waged on energy issues, with Massa embracing the GOP rhetoric to demand a special session on the issue.
OH-01 (Rep. Chabot): Two factors that will determine this race is whether Barack Obama's candidacy succeeds in boosting black turnout, and how much the GOP will bleed support in the traditionally Republican suburbs. An internal poll released in July by the Chabot campaign showed him leading 50% to 37%.
OH-15 (Open): This seat is a disappointment for Democrats. When Rep. Pryce announced she would retire back in 2007, Dems felt really good about the chances of Mary Jo Kilroy. But GOP scored one of its best recruitment coups with state Senator Steve Stivers. In another year, this race would be a purer toss-up; in 2006, Kilroy remains slightly favored but OH-015 is far from the clear pick-up opportunity it was a few months back. A SUSA poll released in August showed Kilroy ahead by 3%.
OH-16 (Open)
WA-8 (Rep. Reichert, polls): Darcy Burner had a tough summer, as her house entirely burned down in the beginning of July, taking her off the campaign trail for a while. Yet, Burner is one of the best-funded House challengers: she raised more in the second quarter and she has more cash-on-hand than her opponent, GOP incumbent Rep. Reichert. The race promises to be just as tight as it was in 2006, and we will see whether Burner can ride presidential coattails.
WY-AL (Open)

Democratic seats, Toss-up (9)

AL-05 (Open, had forgotten before): We have known that AL-05 would be one of the most endangered Democratic-held seats since the day Rep. Cramer announced he would retire back in March. For some reason, I forgot to include it in my previous ratings - and the seat's sudden appearance in the toss-up column should not be interpreted as the GOP gaining ground over the past two months. Both parties selected their nominees, state Senator Parker Griffith for Democrats and Wayne Parker for Republicans. This is a very conservative district (Bush got 60% in 2004) and the GOP has to be very frustrated that they are not doing better here - this is the type of red seats they need to claim to have a chance at regaining the House majority any time soon.
CA-11 (Rep. McNerney)
GA-8 (Rep. Marshall)
IN-09 (Rep. Hill, polls)
KS-02 (Rep. Boyda, polls): In early August, state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (who represents the moderate wing of the state's GOP) narrowly defeated conservative, who was defeated in 2006. She will now take on Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda, who is one of the most endangered Democrats of the cycle. It is difficult to assess the race until we know how deep the wounds from the GOP primary: how will the district’s more conservative voters react to Jenkins’s general election candidacy? The Kansas GOP, after all, has been split in ideological feuds for years. Boyda, meanwhile, is planning a repeat of her 2006 grassroots campaign and has convinced the DCCC to not spend any money on her re-election race, leaving her all alone to fight her opponent.
NH-01 (Rep. Shea-Porter, polls): Defeating Carol Shea-Porter has been one of the GOP's top priorities ever since the Democrat posted the biggest upset of Election Night 2006. Rep. Bradley is running for his own seat - but he first has to defeat John Stephen in what should be a crucial primary. The New Hampshire Union Leader has endorsed Stephen, in what could be a crucial show of support for the more conservative Republican. A recent UNH poll showed that Shea-Porter would be in great danger against both GOPers, though she would have more breathing room against Stephen.
PA-4 (Rep. Altmire)
PA-10 (Rep. Carney)
PA-11 (Rep. Paul Kanjorski, upgraded): Kanjorski is a long-term Democratic incumbent who is facing a more difficult re-election race than many of the freshmen of the 2006 class. That is due both to his opponent, Lou Barletta, who has become a high-profile Republican due to his harsh stance on immigration, and to the fact that he has neglected to build a strong local organization due to the fact that he has not faced a tough election. Barletta has released two internal polls showing him narrowly ahead, and while Democrats have not made their own polls public there is no doubt the DCCC is very worried: they have already spent a total of $260,000 on this district and are running ads on Kanjorski's behalf.

Republican seats, Lean retention (17)

CA-04 (Open)
FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan): In this rematch of the bitterly disputed 2006 election (in which Vern Buchanan scored a controversial 369 vote victory), both candidates are already on air, setting the tone for what is sure to be a bitter and emotional few months.
FL-21 (Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart): See the description of FL-25 (below) for more context, as the FL-21 race similarly pits two Cuban-Americans and a battle on Miami airwaves. A recent poll had the Republican incumbent leading by only 4% against Martinez.
FL-24 (Rep. Feeney)
FL-25 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, upgraded): The battle for Southern Florida is reaching fever pitch here, with Diaz-Balart facing fellow Cuban-American Joe Garcia. The Diaz-Balarts might not be used to highly competitive elections, but the DCCC's decision to reserve $1.4 million worth of air time this fall in the Miami market (the money will be spent on FL-18, FL-21, and FL-25) guarantees that this area will be ground zero of the House battle - and one that will test whether the allegiance of Cuban-Americans is at all shifting away from the GOP. A poll released in July had Garcia trailing by 5%.
IL-18 (Open)
KY-02 (Open)
LA-04 (Open): This is not the type of district in which Democrats are expected to compete (how many times have I used those words in these house ratings?) but the retirement of Rep. McCrery has given Democrats an opening they are ready to exploit. The Democratic candidate, Paul Carmouche, is the DA of the parish in which the district is located, while the GOP will have to wait for its crowded primary to be settled. We will have to wait to get a better idea of the general election match-up, but it is obvious that Democrats are hopeful: Carmouche released an internal poll finding him ahead of all his potential opponents, and even if that advantage comes from a better name recognition will Republican candidates have the funds to address that in the three months ahead? The DCCC has reserved more than $700,000 worth of ad time for the fall, a large buy in this relatively cheap district.
MI-07 (Rep. Walberg, polls): Conflicting internal polls released by the Walberg and Schauer campaigns showed the GOP incumbent leading by 16% and by 3% - but in both cases under 50%. But Mark Schauer is out-raising his Republican opponent, and the DCCC has already budgeted a substantial investment this fall.
MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg)
MO-06 (Rep. Graves, polls)
MO-09 (Open): Both parties settled on their nominees in early August. Republicans nominated Blaine Luetkemeyer, while Democrats chose their more liberal option, Judy Baker. The Democrat's base is in the district's urban centers, so she will have to run up the margins there while holding on in its rural parts. One advantage Republicans will have: current GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof will be running statewide in the gubernatorial race, potentially allowing Luetkemeyer to ride his coattails.
NM-02 (Open)
OH-02 (Rep. Schmidt)
PA-03 (Rep. English, upgraded): In a close district at the presidential level, Rep. English is favored but Democrats remember that he only got 54% in 2006 despite the opposition barely contesting the race. This year, Democrats have nominated a pro-lifer, Kathy Dahlkemper, who released an internal poll showing her ahead by 1%! That's not enough to get Republicans panicked, but neither English nor the RNCC have released a poll to counter Dahlkemper's...
VA-02 (Rep. Drake)
WV-02 (Rep. Capito, upgraded): In a district that has become Republican over the past decade, Shelley Capito has looked increasingly solid over her re-election races. But as the only GOP office-holder in what remains a Democratic state at the local level, she is a perennial target for Democrats. The party is excited by the candidacy of Anne Barth - and while Emily's List did not have a great track record in 2006 and over the past few months, their endorsement should at least guarantee that Barth remains well-funded.

Democratic seats, Lean retention (13)

AZ-05 (Rep. Mitchell)
AZ-08 (Rep. Giffords, polls)
CT-05 (Rep. Murphy)
GA-12 (Rep. Barrow)
IL-08 (Rep. Bean, downgraded): In a neutral year, Melissa Bean is sure to be one of her party's most vulnerable incumbents. But in a Democratic year and in the state of Barack Obama, Bean should have some breathing room. She also knows that she will always be targeted by the GOP and she fundraises and organizes accordingly. Her opponent Steve Greenberg is highly-touted by the GOP, but he will need to quicken his fundraising pace and find new attack angles to come out on top.
KS-03 (Rep. Moore)
KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth, polls): Anne Northup is attempting to come back to Congress after a failed gubernatorial run in 2007. In a district that leans ever so slightly Democratic at the presidential level, Northup needs to run a flawless campaign but for now her camp seems to be in disarray after a staff shake-up that has left her without a campaign manager.
MS-01 (Rep. Childers)
NY-19 (Rep. Hall)
NY-20 (Rep. Gillbrand)
MN-1 (Rep. Walz)
OR-05 (Open, downgraded): Along with AL-05, this is one of only two Democratic-held open seats that is competitive. But GOP prospects are plummeting because of the candidacy of Mike Erickson. Back in may, Erickson was viciously attacked by his primary opponent Kevin Manni for having paid his girlfriend's abortion years ago. Right to Life immediately blasted Erickson, but all that drama unfolded too late to damage Erickson in a state in which most voters sent their ballot in early via mail. Erickson prevailed in the primary. If there was any doubt then that the abortion story would damage his chances, the story soon got worse for Erickson: the woman whose abortion Erickson allegedly paid for confirmed the story to to the Oregonian and blasted Erickson's pro-life record. conservative activists.
WI-8 (Rep. Kagen, polls)

Republican seats, likely retention (17)

AL-03 (open, upgraded): This is a long-shot race for Democrats for sure, but the DCCC appears to have taken an interest in Alabama races - and the local press has taken notice. Democratic nominee Joshua Segall will be helped by the fact that AL-02 and AL-05 are both featuring contested races, in the hope that a mention of his own contest will be inserted in other House stories.
FL-8 (Rep. Keller)
FL-15 (open)
FL-18 (Rep. Ros-Lehtinen, upgraded): This is the third race in the Southern Florida battle, and while the Republican incumbent seems safer than in neighboring FL-21 and FL-25, the money the DCCC will spent in the Miami market could just as easily be spent here than in the other races. (We will have to wait and see the size of the investment.) An independent poll of the race had Ros-Lehtinen leading 51% to 38% against Annette Taddeo, a decent margin but certainly not enough to keep the race out of these ratings.
ID-01 (Rep. Sali): That this district is even on the list is just as stunning this year than it was 2 years ago. But Bill Sali still has a rocky relationship with his state's GOP and his Democratic opponent Walt Minnick is outraising him - a stunning feat for an Idaho Democrat. And the DCCC has reserved nearly $350,000 of media time for the fall - a small investment for them to make but one that is big by Idaho standards (compared to a buy in the Chicago area, it gets almost twice the amount of time with $1 million less!)
IL-06 (Rep. Roskam, downgraded): In 2006, IL-06 was the DCCC's heart-breaker and a source of anger for many party activists who protested the millions the national party wasted in this district at the expense of other races like NC-08. This year, the DCCC found someone else from the military to run, Jill Morgenthaler; she is sure to be even less exciting to local activists than Duckworth was, as she was the Army spokeswoman during the Abu Graib scandal. This is a swing district at the presidential level, and Morgenthaler could be helped by Obama's presence at the top of the ticket. But a recent internal poll released by Rep. Roskam shows her crushing the Democrat by 30%.
LA-07 (Rep. Boustany, upgraded): Democrats have suddenly taken interest in Louisiana's House races - including this conservative seat few people expected to see competitive. State Senator Don Cravins entered the race in mid-June and could take advantage of the area's substantial African-American population. Boustany only picked up the seat for Republicans in 2004, after all, and the DCCC has added Cravins to its Red to Blue list.
MD-01 (Open)
MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann, downgraded): Of all open seats Democrats were contesting in 2006, MN-06 was particularly disappointing, as very conservative GOPer Michelle Bachmann won by a decent 8%. This year's Democratic candidate, Elwyn Tinklenberg, should force Bachmann to play defense but he has been significantly outraised and the DCCC might not be as eager to play in the district.
NV-02 (Rep. Heller, upgraded): This seat should not be expected to be competitive, as Bush got 57% in both 2000 and 2004. But Heller's first election back in 2006 was surprisingly weak and the Democrat he vanquished, Jill Derby, is back for a rematch. The seat has been added to the DCCC's Red to Blue program, so Derby could receive some assistance by the national committee. And while Heller starts as the clear favorite, the seat will test how much Nevada's demographics have evolved in the past decade.
OH-07 (Open)
OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette)
PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach)
PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
VA-05 (Rep. Goode, upgraded): Democrats are touting Tom Pariello's chances in this conservative district, and in a sign that this is not all talk the DCCC has added Pariello to its Red to Blue program. But there is no doubt that this remains a long-shot for Democrats. A recent poll conducted by SUSA showed Goode with a 34% lead.
VA-10 (Rep. Wolf, upgraded): Just like in VA-05, Democrats are making enough noise about VA-10 that the seat ought to at least be added to the list of potentially competitive districts. Bush won VA-10 with 55% in 2004 - not an unsurmountable Republican lean. The DCCC has added Judy Feder to its Red to Blue list, in what will be a rematch of the 2006 election which Rep. Wolf won by 16%.

Democratic seats, likely retention (9)

CT-02 (Rep. Courtney)
IL-14 (Rep. Foster)
IN-02 (Rep. Donnelly)
IN-07 (Rep. Carson, downgraded): Andre Carson won a special election this spring against state Rep. Jon Elrod, a Republican who would have done better in another year and if the NRCC had had more money to come to his rescue. Carson already looked like the favorite for the November rematch, but he now is even safer as Elrod announced he would give up on his congressional candidacy and run for re-election instead.
IN-08 (Rep. Ellsworth)
NH-02 (Rep. Hodes)
OH-18 (Rep. Space)
PA-08 (Rep. Murphy)
TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)

June ratings: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York

2008-06-06T09:33:00.000-07:00

In the past 3 months, Democrats have increased their House majority as they picked up a remarkable 3 seats in a series of special elections organized in Illinois’s 14th district, Louisiana’s 6th district, Mississippi’s 1st district. What is particularly remarkable is that all three of these districts leaned heavily Republican; in 2004, George Bush had won them respectively with 55%, 59% and 62%. Each defeat increased the chaos of the Republican caucus as the NRCC started to settle in panic mode. After the loss of MS-01 on May 13th, Tom Cole, the chairman of the NRCC, issued a remarkable statement calling on Republican incumbents to brace for the worse and find individual ways to deal with the onslaught.

And Republicans have reason to fear a second November debacle. First, Republicans are now three more seats away from the majority and it is hard to find a GOP operative willing to suggest their party has any hope of reducing that margin in November. Second, the party continues to be at a significant financial disadvantage while the DCCC has a huge pile of cash that it will use in dozens of districts in the coming months, testing any Republican seat that shows any sign of being vulnerable. While the GOP was able to respond in the special elections, they will not have the money to do the same in the fall and will be forced to make some painful choices.

Third, the success of Travis Childers in MS-01 differed from those of Don Cazayoux and Bill Foster in that his opponent was not tragically flawed; in other words, the GOP had no easy excuse to explain the loss of that seat and has to face the terrifying prospect that all of its open seats are vulnerable, no matter how competitive they have appeared in previous cycles. A number of districts that opened up in the past few months and which Republicans believed would be safe bets for re-election are now finding themselves at the center of the storm, districts like NM-02, MO-09, AL-02 and OH-07. Democrats know that they will likely not have such an opportunity to snatch away heavily Republican seats in years – perhaps even decades – and they will do everything they can to make the most of every opening they have this year.

The field has shifted towards the Democratic Party, as a stunning 53 of the 88 seats that are listed in these rankings are held by Republicans. The 25 seats Democrats are defending include the 3 districts that they have just acquired and that are likely to remain in their hands in November. New York in particular is looking to be emblematic of the national catastrophe Republicans fear. Once dominant in the Empire State, the GOP has only 6 districts left today. Next year, they might only have 2. NY-25, NY-26 and NY-29 were already on everyone’s list of vulnerable Republican seats at the time of my last rankings, though the GOP’s catastrophic recruitment process in the first two of these districts has increased their predicament. And in a sign that New York Republicans are doing everything they can to seal their own doom, Vito Fossella’s arrest and subsequent retirement and the farce Staten Island Republicans are currently playing has suddenly moved NY-13 from a barely vulnerable seat to one of the Republicans’ two most vulnerable districts nationally. And to make matters worse, Republican chances in districts Democrats picked up in 2006 are rapidly fading, despite GOP boasting that they would have no trouble recapturing NY-19 and NY-24 (though the first has been making some noise again over the past few weeks, see below).

I have written full descriptions of seats that have made news since mid-February. For detailed descriptions of the other races, check last month's rankings. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to the seats that saw their ratings change to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

Less vulnerable: IL-11, IN-07, IN-07, PA-06, OH-15, OH-18
More vulnerable: AK-AL, AL-02, ID-01, LA-04, MD-01, MO-09, NM-02, NY-13, NY-19, NY-25, NY-26, TX-22, WY-AL
Changed parties: IL-14, LA-06 and MS-01
Off the list: DE-AL, FL-10

Outlook: Democrats pick-up 14-20 seats, with a possibility of higher gains. My current prediction is a net pick-up of 17, for a 253-182 Democratic majority.

Republican seats, Likely take-over (2)

NY-13 (open, upgraded): In no other seat did Republican chances collapse as much and as quickly as in this Staten Island seat, the last which the already dying New York GOP controls in New York City. All it took was for Rep. Vito Fossella to be arrested on DWI charges for Republicans to unravel. First, there were revelations that Fossella had an extramarital affair and that he had taken his mistress on taxpayer-funded congressional trips, forcing Fossella to announce his retirement. Second, the top Republicans in the district declined to run, leading the Staten Island party to endorse a weak and unknown candidate, Francis Powers, the island's representative on the MTA board. Finally, Democrats convinced one of their strongest candidates, councilman Mike McMahon, to jump in the race. Despite some divisions and the candidacy of Brooklyn Democrat Steve Harrison, Democrats were already favored to pick-up this swing district when the race devolved even further into a farce as Francis M. Powers, the son of the Republican candidate, announced he would run as the Libertarian candidate with the explicit desire to get the Republican Party (and thus his father defeated).
NY-25 (Open, upgraded): Democrat Dan Maffei, who was came very close from unseating Walsh in 2006, never stopped running in this district that voted for both Al Gore and John Kerry. Given how toxic the environment is for Republicans in any open seat, the seat became instantly lean take-over as soon as Rep. Walsh announced his retirement back in January. And that was before the disastrous series of GOP recruitment failures, as the only Republican candidate who had stepped forward by mid-March suddenly dropped out, leaving the party with nowhere to turn. The county committees ended up settling on former Onondaga County Legislature Chairman Dale Sweetland. Given how many seats the NRCC has to defend in the next few months, it is unlikely they will put much effort into holding this seat.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (5)

AK-AL (Rep. Young, upgraded): Hit by a corruption investigation that is sinking many Alaska Republicans (including Senator Stevens), Rep. Young has a Democratic target for months now, even more so since highly-touted Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz jumped in the race in 2007. Since then, numerous polls have shown Young trailing, the latest being a mid-May Research 2000 survey with Berkowitz up by 10 percent. In fact, the Democrats' nightmare is that Young lose the Republican primary and the GOP nominate someone with less ethical trouble. The state's Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell (whose father Young defeated 28 years ago) is challenging him in the primary.
AZ-1 (Open)
IL-11 (Open, downgraded): Republican prospects in this district have been dismal since the GOP candidate Tim Balderman abruptly withdrew after the primary. The seat was already leaning Democratic with Balderman in the race: the DCCC had hit the jackpot by convincing state Senate President Debbie Halvorson to jump in while the NRCC had failed to recruit its top candidates. With Balderman's exit, party leaders got the right to select a new nominee and they attempted to convince state Senators that had previously refused to run to do so. Yet, despite the prospect of becoming a candidate without having to go through a primary, none of them changed their mind. At the end of April, Republicans appointed Chicago businessman Martin Ozinga to fill Balderman's spot on the ballot. They now have a candidate to hold the seat -- something they did not have at the time of my previous rankings -- which is enough to downgrade the seat form likely to lean take-over. But there is no question that Halvorson is heavily favored to pick-up this seat, particularly with Barack Obama topping the Democratic ticket.
NJ-03 (Open): Democratic state Senator Adler and Republican Mayor Chris Myers won their party's nomination on June 3rd in a race with unbalanced recruitment. Adler is the Democrats' dream candidate while Republicans did not get their first choice. In a district that is swing in a neutral year, an open race should be fatal for Republicans in a cycle that looks so toxic for them.
VA-11 (Open): As soon as Tom Davis announced his retirement, Democrats rejoiced at the opportunity of a sure pick-up in a region that is rapidly trending Democratic, Northern Virginia. But the party's primary, opposing former Rep. Leslie Bynre to Gerald Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, has gone very negative, even splitting the state's establishment, with Sen. Webb and Gov. Kaine supporting different candidates. This gives Republicans hope that they might beat the odds and hold on to this seat with businessman Keith Fimian. It is too early to downgrade this race to a toss-up, but Byrne and Connolly better find a way to finish their race in a less brutal manner.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (2)

FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney): Tim Mahoney has had a target on his back ever since his narrower-than-expected victory in 2006 in the seat that had just been left vacant by Rep. Foley. The GOP primary is late so the race will not settle for a few more months, but the number of credible candidates running for this seat contrasts to the situation in many other districts and confirms that this is one of the Republicans' top opportunities.
TX-22 (Rep. Lampson, upgraded): This is a rare seat in which the GOP caught a break over the past few months. The former seat of Tom DeLay was won by Nick Lampson in 2006 after an absurd campaign in which DeLay messed up his retirement, preventing the GOP from replacing him on the ballot. Republicans settled on a write-in campaign on behalf of Shelley Sekula Gibbs. This year, Sekula Gibbs was running to take on Lampson one more time, but many Republicans were worried that she had become too much of a liability after spending a controversial few months in Washington (she had won the special election to replace DeLay until January 07); they were concerned that nominating her could doom their chances in a district they have no doubt belongs to them. Yet, Sekula Gibbs was crushed in the runoff by Pete Olson despite coming in ahead in the first round of the primary. Olson can now set his sights on Lampson and Republican are upbeat about their chances in this race. However, Lampson can take comfort in Democratic victories in seats like MS-01, as the country's mood might be anti-Republican enough to save him.

Republican seats, Toss-up (14)

CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Many feel that Democrats had their best shot here two years ago, when they fell just short of picking-up a second Colorado House seat. Musgrave has always significantly underperformed in this GOP-leaning district, and Democrats are fielding Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Salazar. A recent internal poll released by the Markey campaign shows Musgrave held under 50% and leading by 4%.
CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Rep. Kirk knows he has a target on his back since the early days of the 2008 cycle and he thus made sure to be the highest fundraising Republican congressman. Last month, challenger Dan Seals tried a stunt that had already been performed by many other Democratic campaigns across the country: he sold gas at the price at which it was sold when Kirk took office. But unlike similar events held elsewhere, Seals' version somewhat backfired as many cars were turned away, the police intervened and Kirk asked for a vote-buying investigation to be launched. However, any Illinois Republican has a target on his back now that Obama is sure to top his party's ticket and drive up Democratic turnout in his home-state.
KY-02 (Open)
MN-03 (Open): Rep. Ramstad's retirement was an instant headache for Republicans in this swing district but at the time of my last ratings rumors were swirling that Ramstad would un-retire. That has not happened and both parties have now picked their nominee: Republicans picked state Rep. Paulsen. At the Democratic convention, early favorite state Senator Terri Bonoff surprisingly lost to Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia. This race is still in its early stages and should thus be considered a toss-up but even a weak Democratic breeze would be enough to turn this seat blue.
NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
NJ-07 (Open): Republicans nominated state Senator Lance Leonard to lead their party, defeating Kate Whitman, the former Governor's daughter. The GOP's obvious trouble in keeping any open seat -- let alone one that is competitive on the presidential level -- will make it hard for them to defeat Democrat Linda Stender who came close to unseating Rep. Ferguson in 2006.
NM-1 (Open): It would be a curious feat if Democrats pick-up NM-02 but not this district, as Heather Wilson's seat has been one that Democrats have targeted for years. Wilson's career ended on June 3rd with a defeat in her party's Senate primary and she opened up her seat in the process. Her campaigning skills were the only reason Republicans were able to retain this Kerry-voting district but sheriff Darren White is one of the GOP's main recruiting successes this cycle, as the NRCC is confident he will keep the race more competitive than other Republicans would have managed to. Democrats nominated Martin Heinrich, the early favorite and a former Albuquerque councilmember. Given the political environment, Democrats are favored in most open seats -- let alone one that leans Democratic usually. Yet, this race should remain competitive and suspensful.
NY-26 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Tom Reynolds, the NRCC chairman in the 2006 cycle, unexpectedly retired since my last rankings, giving Democrats an opening in this traditionally Republican upstate New York. The GOP looks to have unified around businessman Christopher Lee but that was only after a disastrous recruitment effort in which the GOP's top two choices declined to run for the seat -- a problem that has haunted Republicans in this state more than in others. Thankfully for the GOP, the Democratic picture looks confused as 2006 nominee and unconventional (to put it politely) candidate Jack Davis wants the nomination and is looking to spend hundreds of thousands of his own money; actually, he is hoping to spend up to $3 million and to do that he has filed suit to overturn the millionaire amendment, which poses conditions on candidates' self-funding... Meanwhile, most of the Democratic establishment is lined up behind Iraq war veteran Jon Powers. The New York primaries are very late, so if Davis decides to hit Powers it could give th GOP an unexpected boost in its effort to stay alive in New York State.
OH-01 (Rep. Chabot): State Rep. Driehaus is trying to unseat one of 2006's unlikely survivors. Some Democrats point that OH-01 has an important black population and with predictions of an increased African-American turnout in November this is one race in which that could have an impact.
OH-15 (Open, downgraded): Mary Jo Kilroy unexpectedly lost her bid to unseat Rep. Pryce back in 2006 and when the Republican incumbent announced her retirement early in this cycle Kilroy was deemed the favorite. The fact that virtually every major Republican in the district passed on the race seemed to give Kilroy a pass in the general election but the NRCC managed to convince state Senator Steve Stivers to change his mind and jump in the race. The GOP is touting Stivers so highly that they at least look certain to devote some of their defensive resources to this race (the same cannot be said of every open seat the GOP will be defending) which warrants the downgrade to toss-up status. However, Kilroy remains a slight favorite. This is a district in which Bush and Kerry tied in 2004, and it will be difficult for the GOP to retain any such open seat. Furthermore, a poll conducted last month for the Kilroy campaign found her leading Stivers by 10%.
OH-16 (Open): On March 4th, Republicans selected state Sen. Kirk Schuring to be their nominee. Schuring will run against Democratic state Senator John Boccieri who has long been one of the DCCC's most prized recruits.
WA-8 (Rep. Reichert): Challenger Darcy Burner lost by a thin margin in 2008 and is back for a rematch. The district leans Democratic, voted for Kerry and should go for Barack Obama in the fall which could help Burner. One of the biggest problems the Democrat faced two years ago was her political inexperience but now that she is running for the second time voters will feel more familiar with her, making it more difficult for the GOP to paint her as a risky vote.
WY-AL (Open, upgraded): One of the most Republican districts in the nation, WY-AL was downgraded to lean retention in my last rankings after Rep. Cubin announced she would not seek re-election. Given that most of the GOP's past difficulties in holding this seat had come from her unpopularity, an open seat made it easier for Republicans to hold the seat. But Democratic special election successes this spring means that no open seat is safe from take-over as long as Democrats have a credible candidate, and Gary Trauner (their 2006 nominee) is very viable. A new Research 2000 survey shows him edging out GOP candidate Cynthia Lummis, confirming a January poll by Mason-Dixon.

Democratic seats, Toss-up (9)

CA-11 (Rep. McNerney): Republican state Rep. Dean Andal won his party's nomination on June 3rd and he is being highly touted as a top recruit to take on Jerry McNerney, an incumbent Democrat in a district that leans Republican. Yet, the Democrats' special election victories have made the 54% Bush got in this district look like an inconsequential GOP lean, though it is noteworthy that Andal won more votes than McNerney did on their respective primary ballots (both were running uncontested).
GA-8 (Rep. Marshall)
IL-08 (Rep. Bean)
IN-09 (Rep. Hill)
KS-02 (Rep. Boyda): The freshman's incumbent main hope for re-election in this very Republican district is for the GOP primary between former Rep. Jim Ryun and state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins prevents the Kansas Republican Party -- which has been divided for years between conservative and moderate wings -- from uniting behind the nominee.
NH-01 (Rep. Shea-Porter): Shea-Porter is one of the rare freshman Democrats who is facing a rematch with the Republican representative she defeated in 2006. Jeb Bradley wants his job back -- given that this was the upset of the 2006 cycle he probably never fully integrated his defeat -- and the latest poll of the race suggests this will be a tough hold for Democrats if Bradley is the Republican nominee. Shea-Porter just joined the DCCC's Frontline program, meant to help Democratic incumbents raise money and prepare for their re-election; she had refused to join it through 2007, so her change of mind says a lot about her vulnerabilities.
OR-05 (Open): The GOP endangered its chances in one of the only competitive Democratic open seats because of the incredible levels of nastiness their primary reached. State Rep. Kevin Mannix attacked his opponent businessman Mike Erickson for getting a woman pregnant and paying for her abortion, leading the National Right to Life is calling for him to drop out of the race. Incredibly, Erickson survived these allegations and became the GOP nominee by the thinnest of margins, most probably because of the strength of early voting and ballots sent in before the scandal was exposed. This is the kind of primary that leaves traces in a general election.
PA-4 (Rep. Altmire): Melissa Hart, the Republican congresswoman Altmire defeated in 2006, is back for a rematch and it ought to be a tough one as this is a district that leans Republican and in which a Democratic victory was something of a last-minute surprise. But in the intervening two years Democrats have consolidated their position in Pennsylvania and the thousands of new registrations in the first few months of 2008 have altered the playing field in their favor.
PA-10 (Rep. Carney): Republicans nominated businessman Chris Hackett in what is sure to be a tough race for Carney in a district Bush won with 60% in 2004. PA-10 is the kind of district, however, in which Cazayoux and Childers's victories should reassure the incumbent Democrat the most.

Republican seats, Lean retention (18)

AL-02 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Everett announced he was not running months ago, so why is this the first time I am adding the district to my ratings? MS-01 showed that even staunchly Republican districts are offering openings for Democrats, and they will be sure to seize them -- who knows when the climate will be this favorable for them again? AL-05 gave 67% of its vote to Bush in 2004, clearly a huge percentage (even in MS-01 Bush "only" got 62%). But Democrats do have a candidate they believe will make this close, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright... who Republicans also tried to recruit, underscoring just how conservative Democrats tend to be in this kind of district.
CA-04 (Open): A brutal and ideologically driven GOP primary was settled on June 3rd when Republicans chose to nominate the more-conservative candidate, Tom McClintock. His very high-profile in California circles will help him raise money and attract attention, though some suggest that he might be too identified with ideologically pure conservatism to win in the fall. The district is very Republican, and Democrat Charlie Brown's best shot might have been to face the ethically challenged incumbent. But he could pull it off if he attracts moderate Republicans disappointed in McClintock.
FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan)
FL-21 (Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart)
FL-24 (Rep. Feeney): Democrats are continuing to play up Feeney's connections with Jack Abramoff and to tout the candidacy of former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas.
IL-06 (Rep. Roskam)
IL-18 (Open): Aaron Schock, a state Representative who is the 26 year-old Republican nominee for this open seat, has already created a PAC, signaling his confidence that he will be elected in November and minimizing the competitiveness of the race he is engaged in now. It is true that Democrats did not field the strongest of candidates, but IL-18 is less Republican than other open seats the Democrats picked-up over the past few months.
LA-04 (Open, upgraded): The situation is the same as AL-05's. This is a reliably conservative district that gave George Bush 58% of its vote in 2004. But no open seat seems safe for Republicans this year, and 58% is less than what Bush got in LA-06, which switched over to the Democrats' side earlier this month revealing how much seats like LA-04 are also endangered. There is a wealth of candidates from both parties, so it will take a while to figure out the general election dynamics.
MI-07 (Rep. Walberg): Democratic state Sen. Mark Schauer is outraising the freshman incumbent, a sure sign that the DCCC will pay attention to his campaign in the coming months.
MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg)
MO-06 (Rep. Graves): This race has gotten heated early as Sam Graves is using challenger Kay Barnes's fundraising events with Nancy Pelosi to hit her with two ads accusing her of having "San Fransisco values" along with footage of disco dancing and colorful images depicting gay marriages and the homosexual lifestyle. Beyond explicit gay-baiting, the aim of these ads is to alienate Barnes, the former Kansas City Mayor from the district's non-urban voters. In response, the Democratic campaign is airing a brutal ad accusing Graves of neglecting the district's true concern. Indeed, Graves's tactics might not be adapted to a in a year in which the GOP brand is toxic and voters are giving signs of privileging non-value issues.
MO-09 (Open, upgraded): The NRCC was not too worried when Rep. Hulshof first announced he would retire from the House to seek the open gubernatorial seat as this is a Republican district in which Bush got 59% of the vote in 2004. But the Democrats' special election victories this spring mean that open seats like MO-09 are very vulnerable to take-over and Democrats realize they cannot afford to pass this opportunity. Both parties have crowded primaries in this district, with a number of former and current state Representatives seeking their party's nod. The state primary is not until August 5th, so it will take us a while to have a better sense of the campaign's dynamics.
MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann)
NM-02 (Open, upgraded): Steve Pearce's retirement was not supposed to create that much of a headache for Republicans, but times are tough for the GOP when it comes to open seats and this is the type of Republican-leaning district that Democrats are confident they can make more competitive. On June 3rd, Democrat Harry Teague won a tight primary to become his party's nominee and he will face Republican Edward Tinsley.
NV-03 (Rep. Porter): There has been some unexpected movement in this race over the past few months, as Robert Daskas, the presumptive Democratic nominee who was highly touted by the DCCC, unexpectedly dropped out in late April. Democrats were able to recover, however, as they quickly moved to convince Dina Titus, the state Senate Minority Leader and the party's 2006 gubernatorial nominee, to jump in the race, guaranteeing that this remains a competitive race.
NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl)
OH-2 (Rep. Schmidt): In this rematch of their 2006 contest, which Schmidt won by 1%, Democrat Victoria Wulsin is outraising the incumbent and has positioned herself for an upset. But Democrats have suffered two heartbreaks in this district whose GOP leanings (it gave 63% of its vote to Bush in 2004) still appear too difficult to overcome, despite Schmidt's unpopularity. Democratic hopes in past cycles were fueled by Republican divisions, as some GOPers in the district were hoping for another Republican to represent them but that factor is fading away as cycles are passing.
VA-02 (Rep. Drake): Democrats are upbeat about the chances of Glenn Nye, but Thelma Drake might have survived the worst by narrowly prevailing in a hotly contested race in 2006. A recent poll has her leading by double-digit but under 50 percent -- a little bit for both candidates to celebrate. Like OH-01 (see above), increased black turnout have have an impact in this race.

Democratic seats, Lean retention (13)

AZ-5 (Rep. Mitchell)
AZ-8 (Rep. Giffords)
CT-5 (Rep. Murphy)
GA-12 (Rep. Barrow)
IN-7 (Rep. Carson, downgraded): Andre Carson replaced his grandmother mid-March in a special election. Republicans believed they had a strong candidate, state Rep. Elrod, but Carson prevailed in this blue-leaning district by 11%. The special could have been tighter had Republicans had invested resources in helping Elrod but the NRCC did not have enough money to do that -- a concrete example of the limitation the House GOP is facing because of their fundraising weakness.
KS-03 (Rep. Moore)
KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth)
LA-06 (Rep. Cazayoux, changed parties): Coming soon
MS-01 (Rep. Childers, changed parties): Coming soon
NY-19 (Rep. Hall, upgraded): Republicans had made freshman Rep. John Hall one of their top targets until their much touted candidate dropped out of the race in mid-November. Followed 5 months of confusion in which the NRCC struggled to find a replacement. They had given up when George Oros, the leader of the Westchester County Legislature, announced he would take on Hall, drawing the immediate support of the GOP establishment. Republicans have such a late start by now that it will be hard for them to live up to their potential, but this is a rare seat in which their situation has improved over the past 4 months.
NY-20 (Rep. Gillbrand)
MN-1 (Rep. Walz)
WI-8 (Rep. Kagen)

Republican seats, potentially competitive (14)

CA-52 (open)
FL-8 (Rep. Keller)
FL-15 (open): I forgot to add this seat to my previous rating, though it ought to have been on my list ever since Rep. Weldon announced that he would retire and leave this Republican-leaning seat open. Bush won this district with 57% in 2004, making it winnable for the opposing party but this is a rare race in which Democrats have failed the recruitment game as their favorite candidate, Nancy Higgs, abruptly dropped out of the race in February while the GOP has united around state Sen. Bill Posey. Democrats will need a very strong wind to move numbers in this district.
FL-25 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart): This is the second of two Southern Florida districts which Democrats are trying to pick-up in a battle between Cuban-Americans, the other being FL-21. This Diaz-Balart is facing Joe Garcia, the former chairman of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party and the former director of the Cuban American National Foundation. This is a district that leans Republican and Cuban-Americans tend to vote for the GOP, so Garcia will need to convince them to have any shot at unseating the incumbent.
ID-01 (Rep. Sali, upgraded): This is one of the most conservative districts in the country, and Bill Sali did the most difficult in 2006 by capturing an open race when most of the state GOP was attacking him. Yet, Sali won a surprisingly tight primary on May 27th, as he was held to 60% by an underfunded challenger, suggesting that Republican divisions have not yet been resolved. Democratic challenger Walt Minnick has more cash-on-hand than Sali as of May. But Democrats are the underdog here even when everything aligns for them.
MD-01 (Open, upgraded): State Senator Andy Harris defeated Rep. Gilchrest in a primary on February 12th, making the seat nominally open. MD-01 has a clear Republican lean, so Harris starts out as the heavy favorite; but an open seat with a defeated incumbent can bring surprises, especially if Gilchrest supporters remain bitter.
NY-03 (Rep. King)
OH-07 (Open): George Bush won 57% here in 2004, which is less than his share of the vote in LA-06 and MS-01. An internal poll for the Democratic candidate finds Republican state Senator Auria leading by only 6%, though we have to wonder whether Democrats can win in such a district without their strongest candidate, as their first choice declined months ago explaining it was too Republican a seat.
OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette)
PA-03 (Rep. English): Surprised by English's unexpectedly low 54% in 2006, Democrats are confident they can test the incumbent more actively this time. Kathy Dahlkemper won the Democratic nomination on April 22nd.
PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach, downgraded): A rare Democratic recruitment disappointment, PA-06 should have been at the top of the DCCC's priority list. But after two very close contests in 2004 and 2006, Democrats have eased the pressure on Gerlach in a district narrowly carried by Kerry. The Democratic nominee will be retired businessman Bob Roggio, and while the national environment is anti-Republican enough that anything will happen, Gerlach demonstrated two years ago that he is a tough code to crack.
PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
WV-02 (Rep. Capito)

Democratic seats, potentially competitive (10)

CT-2 (Rep. Courtney)
IL-14 (Rep. Foster, changed parties): The former seat of Dennis Hastert fell into Democratic hands in March, in the first of the three shocking Democratic victories. IL-14 was also the least Republican of the three, but it still gave Bush more than 55% of the vote in 2004. The Republican candidate in the special election, Jim Oberweis, was a flawed candidate who had lost elections before and was denounced in state papers for his negative campaigning. The mere fact that he will represent the GOP again in November makes it improbable that Foster will be much threatened. Not to mention that the NRCC wasted enough money defending this seat in March that they will stay away from Oberweis in the fall.
IN-02 (Rep. Donnelly): The filing deadline passed in Indiana and Donnelly attracted minor opposition in a district the GOP had vowed to take back this year.
IN-08 (Rep. Ellsworth, downgraded): The situation is similar to IN-02. This is a Republican-enough seat that I gave the GOP the benefit of the doubt until now. They insisted that they would make this seat very competitive, but they are sending a former congressional aide, Greg Goode, against a Democrat who atomized his opponent, an incumbent, in 2006.
NH-02 (Rep. Hodes): The GOP is concentrating its resources on NH-01, where Rep. Shea-Porter is much more endangered than Hordes. And given that the Senate race will also require heavy GOP attention, there won't be much left for them to go after Hordes. The same poll that showed Shea-Porter in danger also shows Hordes costing to re-election.
OH-18 (Rep. Space, downgraded): Given the district's conservative nature, Zach Space was expected to receive one of the strongest challenges of any incumbent. But many Republicans declined to run and the party's nomination was left in the hands of Fred Dailey, the state's former agriculture director. Dailey's fundraising has been anemic, especially compared to Space's fast-paced campaign, and no one is really paying attention to this race anymore. This is a stunning turnaround considering the GOP's determination 18 months ago.
PA-07 (Rep. Sestak)
PA-08 (Rep. Murphy)
PA-11 (Rep. Paul Kanjorski)
TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)

February ratings: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep a clear edge in the House

2008-02-23T21:22:00.001-08:00

Now that the primaries are slowly quieting down and that delegate calculation are no longer a full time job, we can get back to the joy of ranking congressional races. My last House rankings came in mid-November, and the 4 months that have passed since then have been a political eternity. There have been a number of high-profile retirements, including the first Democrat to retire from a competitive seat in OR-05; but open seats are clearly a Republican headache in this cycle, with many GOP congressmen calling it quits since November, some of them in districts that Democrats are already salivating over (such as NY-25 and VA-11). And while many retirements are in districts that look safe for the GOP (LA-06 and KY-02, for example), their cumulated impact forces the NRCC to play defense and stretches Republican resources even further.

Both parties have scored recruitment coups in the past few months, and both have received some disappointing news. Here again, the GOP has much more to worry about; it even finds itself without a candidate in IL-11, an open seat that has sky-rocketed at the top of the Democratic priority list. But Republicans also have some bright spots: They for instance convinced former Rep. Anne Northup to run for her old seat in KY-03 and are keeping NM-01 much more competitive than many observers expected. And Republicans got encouraging news in December when they successfully defended two districts in special elections, particularly in OH-05 where the DCCC believed it could snatch a seat away.

Overall, all this movement is pushing many more races towards the top of these ratings and we should expect a few more surprises before the retirement and recruitment season comes to a close. We should already get a better sense of the mood of the country and what to expect in November with two special elections in the coming weeks in IN-07 and IL-14.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For detailed descriptions of the other races, check last month's rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past month. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

Less vulnerable: CA-04, NY-19, PA-06, OH-18
More vulnerable: FL-21, IL-11, IL-14, KY-02, KY-03, LA-06, MD-01, MO-09, NJ-03, NY-25, OR-05, PA-11, VA-11
Off the list: OH-05

Outlook: Democrats pick-up 9-14 seats.

Republican seats, Likely take-over (1)

IL-11 (Open, Upgraded): GOP recruitment woes had already pushed this seat to "Lean Takeover" in the fall. Democrats got a top-tier candidate -- state Senate President Debbie Halvorson -- while Republicans failed to do the same. Things have gotten even worse since then for the GOP, as their nominee -- New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann -- dropped out two weeks after the primary. This actually could prove a blessing to Republicans if they manage to get a stronger candidate (who would not have to face a primary), but it has been months they have failed to do just that and right now Halvorson is running unopposed -- and raising a lot of money. Until the GOP replaces Baldermann, this race has to be considered the top pick-up opportunity for Dems.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (5)

AZ-1 (Open): Rep. Renzi had already announced his retirement in this swing district, and Democrats have a strong field of candidates. But Renzi has now been indicted on 36 charges of corruption, and some in the House leadership are pushing him to resign. That would create a competitive open seat in which Democrats would have an even better chance of winning given the turnout differential in this year's races.
NJ-03 (Open, Upgraded): The less dramatic version of IL-11, NJ-03 could fall in the Democratic column easily because of a recruitment differential. After Rep. Saxton retired in this competitive district, Democrats coalesced around state Senator John Adler (who was already running) while the top potential GOP contender declined to run. Bush very narrowly carried the district in 2004, but Adler is favored to pick up the seat this year.
NY-25 (Open, Upgraded): This seat has emerged as one of the RNCC's biggest headaches. One of the 8 remaining Republican-held districts that Kerry carried in 2004, NY-25 was barely kept in the GOP column by Rep. Walsh in 2006 -- by 2,005 votes. Now, Walsh has retired and the Democrats appear to be coalescing around their nominee from last cycle, Dan Maffei. This will be a tough seat for the GOP to hold, particularly in a presidential year.
OH-15 (Open)
VA-11 (Open, Upgraded): Rep. Tom Davis finally announced his plans to leave his Northern Virginia seat next year, opening up a seat in a rapidly Democratic-trending region. Dems are running two strong candidates, state Sen. (and former Rep.) Leslie Bryne and Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. The Republican candidate will likely be Keith Fimian, a businessman with self-funding abilities. An idea of how uphill a climb this race could be for the GOP is provided by the 2005 statewide election results: Leslie Byrne narrowly lost the Lieutenant Governor race that year, but she trounced her Republican opponent within VA-11.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (12)

AK-AL (Rep. Young): The day of reckoning might be getting near for Alaska Republicans, embroiled in a giant corruption investigation that is also threatening Senator Stevens. Rep. Young is facing a very strong challenger, Ethan Berkowitz, but even believers in the Democrat's chances here were surprised when an independent poll showed Young trailing by 7%. And that was barely better than the 15% deficit Young was facing in a late November internal Democratic poll.
CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave)
CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Most of the attention in this race was devoted to the Democratic primary, which was held on February 5th, but it ended in a blow-out. Dan Seals won with 81%, setting up a rematch of the 2006 race against Rep. Kirk. Seals can expect to receive more attention from the DCCC this time around.
KY-02 (Open, upgraded): Complete chaos erupted in this race on January 30th, when Rep. Lewis retired quite literally at the last minute, in a ploy to allow his chief of staff to get the GOP nomination. But state Senator Guthrie heard of this time to jump in the race, setting up a wholly unexpected Republican primary. The winner will face state Senator David Boswell, whom Democrats have long been touting. This seat is very Republican (Bush won with 65%) but depending on the outcome of the GOP primary things could shape up to the Democrats' advantage.
MN-03 (Open): There were rumors back in the fall that Rep. Ramstad might un-retire, which would be a huge boost for Republicans in a swing district. But most indications since then have been that the retirement is definite. Will Rep. Shadegg's recent un-retirement cause Ramstad to reconsider? In any cae, Republicans have a candidate they believe will be strong in November, state Sen. Erik Paulsen.
NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
NJ-07 (Open): Democrats had their candidate as soon as Rep. Ferguson announced his retirement a few months ago, as Linda Stender (who lost narrowly in 06) was back for a rematch. Republican recruitment here is not as worrisome as in other open seats, with Kate Whitman, the daughter of former Governor Christie Whitman, headlining the competitive primary.
NM-1 (Open, Downgraded): NM-01, a blue-leaning district that Kerry carried in 04, is an unlikely place to one of the rare open seat bright spots for the GOP. But Republicans believe in the candidacy of Sheriff Darren White (an internal poll showed him leading in the general) while Democrats have to deal with a major primary between high-profile figures. The dynamics here could change after the primary but the early script is what the GOP was hoping for.
OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
OH-16 (Open)
WA-8 (Rep. Reichert)

Democratic seats, Toss-up (11)

CA-11 (Rep. McNerney)
GA-8 (Rep. Marshall)
IL-8 (Rep. Bean): The Feb. 5th primaries delivered Bean's Republican challenger, businessman Steve Greenberg. Bean will probably have very few calm cycles in her House careers, as she sits on Republican territory. But Barack Obama's probable heading of the Democratic ticket coupled with the fact that she is very aware of the danger and prepares herself accordingly will make her a tough target.
IN-7 (Open): Rep. Carson's death earlier this year created a special election in this Democratic leaning district. Democrats selected Andre Carson, the former Rep.'s grandson, while the GOP fielded a much touted candidate, state Rep. Jon Elrod. The most recent public poll was taken a few weeks ago and shows a toss-up, though the consensus seems to be that the district is too unfavorable to Republicans for Elrod to have a chance. Ultimately, what is really hurting Elrod is the NRCC's lack of funds, as they are not able to truly test the relatively weak Carson.
IN-09 (Rep. Hill): The filing deadline passed in Indiana, confirming that the 2008 race will be the fourth straight confrontation between Democrat Baron Hill and Republican Sodrel. The former won in 2002 and 2006, and the latter in 2004.
KS-2 (Rep. Boyda)
NH-1 (Rep. Shea-Porter)
OR-05 (Open, Upgraded): Rep. Hooley's surprise retirement is the first open seat headache Democrats are facing this year, and it could be a very difficult one for the DCCC to hold. Bush won this district by 1% in 2004, testifying to its being one of the tightest in the country. Republicans are already excited about their candidate, Mike Erickson, who is a wealthy self-funder who already ran in 2006 and got a very respectable 43%.
PA-4 (Rep. Altmire)
PA-10 (Rep. Carney)
TX-22 (Rep. Lampson)

Republican seats, Lean retention (17)

CA-04 (Open, Downgraded): In the last rankings, this seat was rated "Lean Takeover." Then, Rep. Doolittle retired and the seat was downgraded by two full degrees. CA-04 is a very Republican district, and the only reason it was so high on the list was because of Doolittle's ethical and legal problems. Once he is gone, the GOP recovers its natural advantage in this district, though a victory by Democrat Charlie Brown (who also ran in 2006) should not be ruled out. Dems picked up a few seats in 2006 for ethical reasons even after the incumbent had quit -- for example in OH-18.
FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan)
FL-21 (Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Upgraded): Democrat Raul Martinez, former Mayor of Hialeah, jumped in the race earlier this year, creating a major battle in Southern Florida. The Cuban vote will be particularly sought after, and also expect Martinez's 1990 indictment for extortion and racketeering to be brought up.
FL-24 (Rep. Feeney)
IL-06 (Rep. Roskam): The DCCC recruited another veteran to run against Roskam, despite Duckworth's failure in 2006 in one of the races the DCCC dumped the most money on. Now, it is Jill Morgenthaler's turn to challenge Roskam. She was the Army's press contact during the Abu Graib scandal and she is now the Democratic nominee for IL-06.
IL-14 (Open, Special election, Upgraded): The special election in IL-14 to fill Dennis Hastert's House seat is scheduled for March 8th. Both parties selected their nominees for the special election on February 5th, with Jim Oberweis representing the GOP and Bill Foster the Democrats. Oberweis had lost a few GOP primaries before, so this is already an improvement for him. A recent internal poll for the Foster campaign shows a toss-up, and we will soon know how much of a chance the Democrats has by looking at whether the DCCC jumps in and uses its financial muscle to truly test Oberweis.
IL-18 (Open)
MI-07 (Rep. Walberg)
MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg)
MO-06 (Rep. Graves)
MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann)
NV-03 (Rep. Porter)
NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl): Retirement rumors are circulating about Rep. Kuhl, in what would create yet another huge headache for the NRCC.
OH-2 (Rep. Schmidt): Before thinking of the general election in this very red district that she keeps massively underperforming in, Schmidt will have to survive the March 4th primary. She caught a break when one of her major opponents left the race but she will have to dismiss another challenge. Democrats have more of a chance to pick-up the seat if the controversial Schmidt remains the GOP candidate.
PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach, downgraded): Gerlach survived very narrowly this blue leaning in both 04 and 06, and Dems were expected to go after him with everything they have this time around. But the clock is ticking and no one has stepped forward, giving Gerlach a stunning pass as of now.
VA-2 (Rep. Drake)
WY-AL (Open, Upgraded): The retirement of unpopular Rep. Cubin seemed to guarantee an easy hold for the GOP in this very red state, but a Mason-Dixon poll out since then gave us some pause. It shows Democrat Gary Trauer edging out Republican Cynthia Lummis 41% to 40%. Odds are that Republicans get their act together here, particularly in a presidential year, but that is also what we said in 2006 and Cubin ended up barely winning, already against Trauer.

Democratic seats, Lean retention (10)

AZ-5 (Rep. Mitchell)
AZ-8 (Rep. Giffords)
CT-5 (Rep. Murphy)
GA-12 (Rep. Barrow)
KS-3 (Rep. Moore)
KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth, upgraded): Former Rep. Anne Northup announced in January that she was jumping in the race, seeking the job she was ousted form in 2006. The district leans slightly Democratic, so the early edge goes to Yarmuth but there is no question that this is probably one of the most difficult re-election races he will have to face.
NY-20 (Rep. Gillbrand)
IN-8 (Rep. Ellsworth)
MN-1 (Rep. Walz)
OH-18 (Rep. Space): One of the most Republican districts picked-up by a Democrat in 2006, OH-18 was at the top of the GOP's priority list for 2008. But the NRCC has not been able to recruit a top-tier challenger here, and while the main Republican in the primary would be a viable opponent (especially in such a red district in a presidential year), the early edge goes to Space.
WI-8 (Rep. Kagen)

Republican seats, potentially competitive (16)

CA-52 (open)
DE-AL (Rep. Castle): Only if Castle retires.
FL-8 (Rep. Keller)
FL-10 (Rep. Young): Some expect a retirement, but no such announcement yet.
FL-25 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart)
LA-06 (Open, Special election, Upgraded): Rep. Richard Baker resigned last month to join the private sector, forcing a special election. The district is reliably Republican but Democrats believe that they have the right candidate -- State Rep. Don Cazayoux -- to get a win here, especially in the more unpredictable conditions of a special election.
MD-01 (Open, Upgraded): State Senator Andy Harris defeated Rep. Gilchrest in a primary on February 12th, making the seat nominally open. MD-01 has a clear Republican lean, so Harris starts out as the heavy favorite; but an open seat with a defeated incumbent can bring surprises, especially if Gilchrest supporters remain bitter.
MO-09 (Open, Upgraded): Rep. Kenny Hulshof announced that she was running for Governor a month ago, opening up this Republican-leaning seat. The GOP starts off with an edge,
NM-02 (Open)
NY-03 (Rep. King)
OH-07 (Open)
OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette)
PA-03 (Rep. English)
PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
WV-02 (Rep. Capito)

Democratic seats, potentially competitive (7)

CT-2 (Rep. Courtney)
IN-2 (Rep. Donnelly): The filing deadline passed in Indiana and Donnelly attracted minor opposition in a district the GOP had vowed to take back this year.
NH-02 (Rep. Hodes)
NY-19 (Rep. Hall, Downgraded): Republicans had made freshman Rep. John Hall one of their top targets and considered candidate Andrew Saul one of its top recruitment coups next year. But Saul withdrew from the race at the end of January, and the GOP has not been able to field a convincing replacement for now.
PA-07 (Rep. Sestak)
PA-08 (Rep. Murphy)
PA-11 (Rep. Paul Kanjorski): In a rematch of their 2002 contest, controversial Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (known for his hard-line and obsessive focus on immigration) jumped in this House race. Given that Kanjorski dismissed Barletta in 2002, a Republican year, he starts this race clearly favored. But this could get more competitive, depending on how much voters focus on immigration.
TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)

November rankings: How many more Republican retirements?

2007-11-23T21:49:00.000-08:00

Just when the GOP is starting to catch some small breaks in the Senate, the situation in the House is rapidly deteriorating. As many had predicted, a growing number of Republican representatives do not find the prospect of life in the minority appealing and are calling it quits. Unfortunately for Republicans, a large majority of them represent competitive districts. The latest retirement were particularly shocking because they were completely unexpected -- especially Rep. Ferguson's in NJ-07. Democrats have golden opportunities to pick-up all of these seats, especially if the environment continues to favor them. But this also means Republicans will be forced to play defense and will not be able to contest that many Democratic-held seats, no matter how vulnerable they might be.

The situation is made much worse for Republicans by the awful financial situation they are in. As of the end of October, the NRCC is still a million in debt, while the DCCC has 27 million dollars. That's nearly a 30 million dollar gap, which will have a significant impact on next year's results. The RNC will have to concentrate on the presidential elections and will have a limited ability to help the NRCC out. This means that the DCCC has the ability to play offense in many seats, expand the map, and protect its own seats -- while the Republicans will probably end up having to concede some of their open seat and choose which select Democratic seats they are going after.

As a result, many of the freshmen Democrats who looked very vulnerable last year are likely to survive, though the GOP will no doubt be able to claim some of its very conservative seats back, starting with FL-16 and TX-22; they also got some good news this month when the Democratic challenger in MT-AL withdrew, as unpopular Rep. Cubin retired in Wyoming, and as they made Indiana's 7th district much more competitive. But six of the seven race that are rated more vulnerable this month are Republican, underscoring the steady stream of bad news for the GOP.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For detailed descriptions of the other races, check last month's rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past month. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

Less vulnerable: CT-2, NY-19, WY-AL
More vulnerable: AK-AL, IL-06, IL-11, IN-07, KY-02, NJ-07, OH-05

Outlook: Democrats pick-up 7-12 seats.

The October ratings are available here.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (5)

AZ-1 (Open)
CA-4 (Rep. Doolittle): Republicans might finally be getting what they want here, as some rumors are starting to circulate that ethically (very) challenged Doolittle might be finally ready to announce his retirement. If he does, this race will significantly drop down the rankings; but if Doolittle stays in the race, this is a sure a pick-up for the Democrats' Brown.
IL-11 (Open, upgraded): The filing deadline has already passed in Illinois (it's the first in the country), and Republicans did not manage to recruit a top-tier candidate. They are fielding the Mayor of New Lenox and an ex-Bush White House official; both could be good candidates and make the race competitive, but Democrats have to be considered slightly favored since they convinced a reluctant Debbie Halvorson, the State Majority Leader, to run.
NM-1 (Open): 2006 nominee Patricia Madrid announced she would not run again, making Albuquerque councilman Heinrich the likely Democratic nominee. Republicans are confident that their nominee, sheriff White, is strong and will run much stronger than other Republicans would. If that is confirmed by independent indicators and polls, the race will be downgraded, but the fact that the district is naturally competitive (it narrowly went for Kerry in 2004) combined with the sour national environment for Republicans makes Heinrich the early favorite.
OH-15 (Open): The GOP finally got some much needed good news in this race. Democrats had united behind their 2006 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy, but all Republicans who might have made this race competitive declined to run one after another, making this the top pick-up opportunity in the country for Democrats. But the GOP finally convinced a strong candidate who had initially passed on the race to get in: state Senator Steve Strivers. They ensured that the race remains competitive; but given that OH-15 is very tight in the first place, that the environment is toxic for the GOP and that Kilroy came within a few thousand votes of unsitting an entranced incumbent in 2006, Democrats are still favored.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (14)

AK-AL (Rep. Young, upgraded): A new poll shows just how disastrous Young's approval rating has become as he is involved in a corruption probe that has claimed many other Republican congressmen. Democrats have a few candidates, and an October poll showed former state Senator Ethan Berkowitz leading Young.
CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave)
CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): A recent primary poll has Dan Seals crushing Footlik in the Democratic primary for the right to take on Republican Kirk, who sits on a very competitive district. Seals got 47% in 2006 with the national party paying little attention, but he will receive lots of help from the DCCC this time.
MN-03 (Open):
NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
NJ-03 (open): In the first New Jersey surprise, Rep. Saxton announced he would not run for re-election in early November giving a major opening to Democrats in a district that Bush won by only 3% in 2004. Democrats were already excited about this race before Saxton's retirement, and they believe that state Senator John Adler is a very strong candidate who will carry the district. Republicans do have a solid bench here though, and are looking to get state Senator Diane Allen in.
NJ-07 (open): Rep. Ferguson's retirement was perhaps the biggest surprise of this year's House cycle. He opens up a very competitive district that Bush won with 49% in 2000 and 53% in 2004. Democrats appear united behind state Assemblywoman Linda Stender who came within a point of beating Ferguson in 2006. The GOP is having a harder time at recruitment, as its three top choices (especially Tom Kean Jr.) announced they would not run within a few days of Ferguson's retirement. Republicans better find a good candidate fast, or they will be looking at a certain Democratic pick-up.
OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
OH-16 (Open):
NY-25 (Rep. Walsh)
PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach)
VA-11 (Rep. Davis): Whether or not Tom Davis retires, this race is sure to be very competitive. Davis's wife Jeannemarie massively lost a re-election race to the state Senate last month in a contest that cost millions of dollars, proving that Davis will have a very tough fight on his hand next year if he runs again in a region that has been rapidly trending their way. If Davis retires (and he was supposed to run for Senate and leave the seat open until about a month ago), this will automatically jump up to the top of the Democratic pick-up list. Does his wife's loss make him more or less likely to run again?
WA-8 (Rep. Reichert): Democrats are clearly confident they can take Reichert down in a rematch of the 2006 race against Demcorat Burner. They recently filed an FEC complaint over Reichert's fundraising, hoping to get the incumbent in ethical trouble. They did not manage to tie him quite enough with the GOP brand in 2006.

Democratic seats, Toss-up (11)

CA-11 (Rep. McNerney)
GA-8 (Rep. Marshall)
IL-8 (Rep. Bean)
IN-7 (Rep. Carson, upgraded): This is a very Democratic district, that Kerry carried with 58%. But Rep. Carson has had health problems and has rarely been in the House in the past few years -- nor has she campaigned very actively. Her 2006 re-election was surprisingly narrow, and Republicans have recruited state Rep. Jon Elrod, who they believe will be the ideal candidate to take down Carson. This race could be an unlikely pick-up for the GOP if Carson runs for re-election; if she retires, it could be easier for Democrats to hold.
IN-09 (Rep. Hill): Rep. Hill and Republican Sodrel are running against each other for the fourth straight time. Voters know both of them at this point, and there is little they can do this early to change the dynamics.
KS-2 (Rep. Boyda)
NH-1 (Rep. Shea-Porter): Republicans are preparing for a primary between ousted 2006 congressman Bradley and the former HHS commissioner; but if Shea-Porter won last year with no money and no national attention, how vulnerable could she be now as an incumbent.
OH-18 (Rep. Space)
PA-4 (Rep. Altmire)
PA-10 (Rep. Carney)
TX-22 (Rep. Lampson): This race is deemed by many the most vulnerable seat held by a Democrat. But the strongest Republicans passed on the race, giving at least some pause to those who have long predicted Lampson is a one-timer. They might very well be right, but we shall wait until the GOP field yields its nominee to reassess the situation.

Republican seats, Lean retention (13)

FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan)
FL-24 (Rep. Feeney)
IL-06 (Rep. Roskam, upgraded): The DCCC angered many local activists here by fielding Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth against a popular grassroots leader in 2006. Today, they are fielding another veter, Jill Morgenthaler, who was the Army's press contact during the Abu Graib scandal. They are hoping to make this race top-tier, but they will first have to find a way to reconcile themselves with the local party.
IL-18 (Open)
KY-02 (Rep. Lewis, upgraded): Rep. Lewis had a surprisingly close re-election in 2006, and Democrats are hoping to challenge him even more strongly this time by running state Senator Boswell against him. Kentucky is looking very bad for Republicans right now, so the district's natural GOP-lean might be offset by the party's vulnerability.
MI-07 (Rep. Walberg):
MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg): Democrats are getting more confident about this race, with a recent internal poll showing Knollenberg way under 50% against former state Senator Peters.
MO-06 (Rep. Graves)
MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann)
NV-03 (Rep. Porter): Democrats are confident prosecutor Robert Daskas will be a strong challenge to Porter, especially since the incumbent barely won against an aide to Sen. Reid last year.
NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl)
OH-2 (Rep. Schmidt)
VA-2 (Rep. Drake)

Democratic seats, Lean retention (10)

AZ-5 (Rep. Mitchell): Republicans now have three candidates in this GOP-leaning district, a sign they see Mitchell as particularly vulnerable. The fate of this race could very well depend on how strong an advantage Republicans have on immigration. Mitchell defeated one of the most anti-immigration representatives last year, so he clearly has some credibility on the issue.
AZ-8 (Rep. Giffords)
CT-5 (Rep. Murphy)
GA-12 (Rep. Barrow)
KS-3 (Rep. Moore)
NY-19 (Rep. Hall, downgraded): Republicans were very excited about their candidate Andrew Saul... until Saul dropped out last week. Now, the GOP is left without a candidate in a red-leaning district they lost in 2006 and that they had put at the top of their priorities list.
NY-20 (Rep. Gillbrand)
IN-8 (Rep. Ellsworth)
MN-1 (Rep. Walz)
WI-8 (Rep. Kagen): 2006 GOP nominee John Gard is running again for a rematch. But if Kagen defeated him in an open race last year, does Gard really have an opening to take down Kagen now that he has become an incumbent?

Republican seats, potentially competitive (17)

CA-52 (open)
DE-AL (Rep. Castle): Only if Castle retires.
FL-8 (Rep. Keller): Unions are attacking Keller for his vote against SCHIP, which could soften him up enough to make him vulnerable.
FL-10 (Rep. Young): We're waiting to find out if Young will be retiring; if he does, Democrats will have an amazing opening in a blue-trending district with state Senator Charlie Justice. If he runs again, he will start off favored.
FL-21 (Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart)
FL-25 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart)
IL-14 (Open): Dennis Hastert finally announced he would retire, and it looks likely that the special election will be some time in March or April, depriving Democrats of the turn-out boost they would have had if it had been on February 5th, the day of the presidential primary. The Republican candidates (Oberweis and state Senator Lauzen) start off favored, but special elections tend to be closer than they would otherwise be, and the DCCC has plenty of money to exploit any Republican vulnerability.
NM-02 (Open): Testifying to the fact that New Mexico is one of the hottest political states next year, the primary field here is completely unsettled. Republicans are favored in this GOP-voting district, but we won't have a clearer idea of how competitive the race might be before the fields settle down a bit.
NY-03 (Rep. King)
NY-26 (Rep. Reynolds, upgraded): Some rumors that Rep. Reynolds might retire have put this on the list, though the Reynolds camp is insisting that he will run again.
OH-05 (open, upgraded): Republicans selected Bob Latta in a very competitive contest, and Democrats are hoping that the ugliness of the primary has left Latta bruised and has given their candidate (Robin Weirauch) an opening. An internal Latta poll has him up 50% to 36% on the Democrat, who will only be able to contest this very Republican district if the DCCC makes a serious play.
OH-07 (Open)
OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette)
PA-03 (Rep. English)
PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
WV-02 (Rep. Capito)
WY-AL (open, downgraded): Rep. Cubin announced she would not run again, and made the seat much safer for the GOP -- a rare case in which an open seat will be easier to hold. Wyoming is a very conservative state, and the only reason this was on the list of vulnerable districts was that Cubin was a very unpopular incumbent who barely surived in 2006. In an open race, the state's Republican roots should kick in, especially in a presidential year.

Democratic seats, potentially competitive (7)

CT-2 (Rep. Courtney, downgraded): Republicans were very excited about Navy Veteran Sean Sullivan, but have since been so disappointed by weak fundraising that they appear to have written Sullivan off their list of good recruits. This probably means they won't seriously compete here, especially given that the national party has little money with which to help out local candidates.
IN-2 (Rep. Donnelly, downgraded): The GOP made a lot of noise early about finding challengers to Rep. Donnelly in his red-leaning district, but it is getting late in the game and there is no solid Republican stepping up.
KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth)
NH-02 (Rep. Hodes)
PA-07 (Rep. Sestak):
PA-8 (Rep. Murphy):
TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)

October Ratings: Democrats feel better as GOP faces worrisome retirements

2007-10-19T00:48:00.000-07:00

Plenty of action in House races since our first ratings came out in mid-September. This is recruitment and retirement season in the House, and Ohio has been the center of it all, with three Republicans retiring, two of them in very competitive districts (OH-15 and OH-16). Democrats have had better news on the recruitment front as well (look at AK-AL, FL-24, IL-11 and MN-06), but Republicans reply that they are very satisfied with their newest candidates in NM-01 and OH-07...

A lot will still happen in the next few weeks. Republicans are afraid that many more Republicans will announce their retirement, for that has really been to bottom line so far: Whatever chance the GOP had of reclaiming a majority next year (and it was already a slim chance) has been erased by the number of competitive open seats the party will have to defend, some of them completely unexpectedly. Two good news the Republicans did get recently were from unexpected places. The first is from VA-11, a blue-trending district held by Republican Tom Davis. It appeared certain that Davis would run for Senate -- offering the seat to Dems, but it now seems he will stay where he is.

The second good news came from MA-05, where the GOP got a "moral victory" this week in the special election that the Democrat won by only 5% in a very Democratic district. Moral victories might not be much, but Hackett's near-win in very red OH-02 in 2005 certainly prefigured larger gains in 2006.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For detailed descriptions of the other races, check last month's rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past month. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

Less competitive: OH-02, VA-11
More competitive: AK-AL, IN-09, IL-11, KS-03, NM-11, NJ-03, OH-07, OH-14
Taken out of the rankings: MA-05

Outlook: Democrats pick-up a net 7-10 seats.

The September ratings are available here.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

AZ-1 (Open)
CA-4 (Rep. Doolittle): Nothing much has changed since last month. Doolittle is under heavy investigation for his ties with Abramoff, and he is refusing to retire, drawing fire from his own party. Democrats are running 2006 nominee Brown, and if Doolittle stays the GOP candidate, they seem assured of carrying the seat. But if the RNCC is successful in getting Doolittle to retire, the race will drop down and strongly favor Republican. It is a red district and is rated so high only because of Doolittle's troubles.
NM-1 (Open, upgraded): Heather Wilson is running for Senate, and this swing district finally opened up. Republicans got the candidate they white when Sheriff White jumped in the race, but the seat slightly leans Democratic and that should play help the Democratic nominee (right now probably Heinrich, but 2006 nominee Patricia Madrid could jump in) cross the finish line. White released a poll showing him ahead in a general election, but it was an internal poll. We will downgrade the race is that is confirmed by independent pollsters
OH-15 (Open): Republicans have pretty much given up on this seat since Rep. Pryce announced she was retiring. A whole line-up of Republicans passed up on the race one after the other, most notably former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro. Democrat Kilroy (the 2006 nominee) seems to have the Dem nomination wrapped up, and should sail to victory. With so many other seats to worry about in Ohio, the GOP will likely not spend that much time defending this one.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (12)

CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Angie Paccione, the 2006 nominee, was preparing for a rematch against Musgrave, but announced she was dropping out in late September. This leaves Betsy Markey, a businesswoman as well as a former aide to Senator Salazar, as the likely Democratic nominee.
CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Democrats are in the midst of a tight primary fight between Jay Footlik and 2006 nominee Daniel Seals.
IL-11 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Weller's decision to call it quits in this competitive district made it a top target for Democrats overnight. Their hand strengthened when they unexpectedly convinced Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to jump in, while the leading Republican declined to run. Depending on where GOP recruitment ends up, this race could soon move up to "Lean Takeover."
MN-03 (Open): Rep. Ramstad's retirement made this race an instant toss-up, but the GOP is reportedly pressuring him to reconsider his decision, arguing that conditions are too bad this cycle and Ramstad should wait one more to open his seat. That about tells you how vulnerable this seat is.
NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
NJ-03 (Rep. Saxton, upgraded): Republicans think they finally have the candidate in this swing district that Bush narrowly carried in 2004 but that Gore won by 10 points in 2000. State Senator John Adler is running, 18 years after a first run against Saxton at age 31. Depending on who tops the presidential ticket, this race could go either way.
OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
OH-16 (Open): Rep. Regula announced he would retire in mid-October, after years of speculation that his time had come. Democrats are running a strong candidate in the form of state Senator John Boccieri, but it might very well be that they would have had an easier time defeating the aging Regula than competing for an open seat in a district that is marginally Republican.
NY-25 (Rep. Walsh)
PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach)
VA-11 (Rep. Davis, possibly open; downgraded): In the last rankings, this seat was ranked "lean takeover" because Tom Davis looked sure to jump in the Senate seat and open up this northern Virginia district in a region that has beentrending Democratic. But it now looks like Davis might not retire after all. Democrats are certain to challenge him more than they did in 2006, but Davis would start up as the favorite if he runs.
WA-8 (Rep. Reichert)

Democratic seats, Toss-up (11)

CA-11 (Rep. McNerney)
GA-8 (Rep. Marshall)
IL-8 (Rep. Bean)
IN-09 (Rep. Hill, upgraded): Republican Mike Sodrel announced earlier this month that he would run for the seat for the fourth competitive time against Democrat Baron Hill. The Democrat won in 2002, Sodrel in 2004, then Hill again in 2006! The GOP contends that the presidential race should give Sodrel the necessary turn-out boost among conservatives, while Democrats contend Hill is prepared for Sodrel this time. If Sodrel had taken a pass, this seat would have been far less competitive -- but a third rematch guarantees that it will go down the wire.
KS-2 (Rep. Boyda)
NH-1 (Rep. Shea-Porter)
NY-19 (Rep. Hall)
OH-18 (Rep. Space)
PA-4 (Rep. Altmire)
PA-10 (Rep. Carney): This seat is very Republican, and the GOP has plenty of candidates (for example Chris Hackett and Don Meuser) who want to take on Carney. The netroots are unlikely to provide him with great help, as Carney has been very conservative since his election -- saying for example that he would like to see Republican Chuck Hagel be president. Though that's probably the way to survive in this district.
TX-22 (Rep. Lampson)

Republican seats, Lean retention (14)

AK-AL (Rep. Young, upgraded): Don Young was certainly not supposed to be in a tight re-election race. But ethical trouble has gotten him in a tough contest, especially when Democrats recruited popular state senator Ethan Berkowitz to run against him. A poll of the race released in mid-October has Berkowitz up on the incumbent, which led us to upgrade the race. But Alaska is Alaska, and it did not look good for Dems in 2004 and 2006 -- so not yet a toss-up.
FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan)
FL-24 (Rep. Feeney): Democrats are excited about their new candidate, state Senator Suzanne Kozmas. Feeney faced some speculation that he might retire, but he has been raising a lot of money in anticipation of a competitive race, so it looks like that is not going to happen. Democrats are confident they can carry this seat, and that they can do so with Kozmas.
IL-18 (Open)
MI-07 (Rep. Walberg): Democrats are running Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer against very conservative Republican Walberg, and they are convinced they can win here because Walberg is a bad match for the district.
MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg)
MO-06 (Rep. Graves)
MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann): MN-06 is one of their open seats that the GOP carried most easily in 2006, and Democrats want to make sure they better challenge socially conservative Bachmann this time around. Elwyn Tinklenberg, the state's former Transportation Commissioner, announced he was running earlier this month, and Democrats believe he has the ideal profile to carry the district. This race will definitely be close.
NJ-07 (Rep. Ferguson)
NV-03 (Rep. Porter)
NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl)
OH-2 (Rep. Schmidt, downgraded): Nothing new happened in this race, but I did realize it was unfair of me to rate this a toss-up. Schmidt survived extremely close calls in 2005 and 2006 on the basis of the district's very Republican nature alone. She is clearly not a match for the district, and she has considerably messed up since she got to the House. But if she managed to ride the seat's Republican nature in an off-year election, a presidential year should make that even easier.
VA-2 (Rep. Drake)
WY-AL (Rep. Cubin): Speculation rises that Rep. Cubin will retire. She keeps underperforming in arguably the most Republican state of the country, and she barely survived in 2006 against Democrat Gary Trauer, who is running again. This is one of those races Democrats hope will not open up, as they would have a harder time competing in an open race.

Democratic seats, Lean retention (12)

AZ-5 (Rep. Mitchell)
AZ-8 (Rep. Giffords)
CT-2 (Rep. Courtney)
CT-5 (Rep. Murphy)
GA-12 (Rep. Barrow)
KS-3 (Rep. Moore, upgraded): Dennis Moore sits on a very Republican district, yet he has been elected time and time again. Usually, his races are very close, but he sailed to re-election in 2006. This time, the GOP vows that it will put everything it has against Nick Jordan, a recruit the party is touting. But Moore has survived many times already, so he starts off as the favorite.
NY-20 (Rep. Gillbrand): Gillbrand is proving to be one of the biggest freshmen Democrat fundraisers, which should dissuade any major Republican to challenge her.
IN-2 (Rep. Donnelly)
IN-7 (Rep. Carson): Democrats are playing with fire by letting Carson run again. She repeatedly underperforms in this district, as health problems have left her unable to work as much as she should on Capitol Hill for a while.
IN-8 (Rep. Ellsworth)
MN-1 (Rep. Walz)
WI-8 (Rep. Kagen)

Republican seats, potentially competitive (15)

CA-52 (Open)
DE-AL (Rep. Castle): Leans Dem if Castle retires; safe GOP if he does not.
FL-8 (Rep. Keller)
FL-10 (Rep. Young): Speculation has arisen that Young might be eyeing retirement, given his inexistant third quarter fundraising. That would make this race move up dramatically, given that it leans slightly Democratic (Kerry carried it in 2004).
FL-21 (Rep. Diaz-Balart): The district is very Republican and dominated by Cuban-Americans, but Democrats believe that Raul Martinez, 25-year mayor of Hilaeah (the fifth largest Florida city) could give Diaz-Balart a competitive race.
IL-6 (Rep. Roskam)
IL-14 (Open): Dennis Hastert will resign before his term is over, but he is refusing to say when. He has explicitly stated he will try to resign at such a time as to avoid a special election -- clearly worried that Dems would have a better chance then than in November 2008.
NM-02 (Open): Steve Pearce is running for the open Senate seat, which means that New Mexico's two Republican-held seats will be open in 2008. This is much more Republican than NM-01, but Democrats are nonetheless hoping they can make this race competitive. That Democrats are having a competitive primary (Teague versus McCamley) is indicative that they see some hope.
NY-03 (Rep. King)
OH-07 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Hobson announced his retirement mid-October, the third Ohio Republican to call it quits. OH-07 is much more Republican than the state's other open seats, however. The Democrat's main hope, Sheriff Gene Kelly, passed on the race last week saying it was unwinnable and that Republican Steve Austria was too strong a contender. An open seat is an open seat, but the GOP starts off favored.
OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette): Yet another potentially competitive Ohio seat. Bush only won here with 52% in 2004, but LaTourette had an easy time winning re-election in 2006. Democrats are hoping to put this in play, perhaps with former Judge William O'Neill.
PA-03 (Rep. English)
PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
WV-02 (Rep. Capito)

Democratic seats, potentially competitive (5)

KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth)
NH-02 (Rep. Hodes)
PA-07 (Rep. Sestak): Sestak has been intensely fundraising, making sure to scare off a potentially strong contender.
PA-8 (Rep. Murphy): Republican Mike Fitzpatrick, the previous incumbent defeated in 2006, has announced he will not challenge Rep. Murphy in his first re-election race. The 2006 race had been extremely close (50-50), so this is a huge relief for the Democrat. Republicans are unlikely to mount as strong a challenge in this blue trending district.
TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)