Saturday, September 15, 2007

House Ratings: Democrats poised to keep their majority

The beginning of the month brought the Senate rankings. Two weeks have passed, so it is time to look at the picture in the House. As bad as this week was for the GOP on the Senate (and make no mistake about it, between Hagel's retirement and Warner and Shaheen jumping in the race, this was as bad as it can get), House Republicans did their best to beat that. After a month of recruitment failures and retirement announcements, Republicans are not at their best in House races, and while some of them were hoping that they could reconquer the House in November 2008, that looks increasingly unlikely.

It is naturally very early to tell where most of these races are headed. House contests develop much later than Senate ones. On the Senate side, most Senators are nearing announcements about whether they will run again, and most challengers have already taken steps towards launching their campaign. But on the House side, the recruitment drive is only starting and many more retirements are still expected.

It is however a good exercise to rank these races, see which ones are already in play, which ones are gearing up to be the most competitive of the next cycle, and where the challenging party really hasn't gotten its act together. The overall picture favors Democrats: they are defending no competitive open seats, have put together some good challengers, and are benefiting from the national environment. Many Republicans who barely survived in 2006 are now being targeted, and races that were under-funded then will be treated as top-notch opportunities next year.

But Republicans also have a lot of opportunities: Of the 31 freshmen democrats who picked-up GOP seats last fall, many hold very red districts that are likely to vote even more Republican in a presidential year. Many are already being put to the test, and Republicans are claiming some recruitment victories (CA-11 or CT-5). But the GOP will have to work hard to put all the seats it wants in play.

Outlook: 6-10 seat Democratic pick-up

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)
  • AZ-1 (Open): Ethically challenged Renzi's retirement gave Republicans a better shot at keeping the seat. But this is exactly the kind of scandal-tainted seat Democrats were so good at winning in 2006, so there is no reason to think they are not favored today.
  • CA-4 (Incumbent: Doolittle): This district is very heavely Republican and will favor the GOP in a heartbeat again if only FBI-investigated Doolittle gets out of the race. But he is claiming he will run -- and as long as he does Democrat Brown (who almost beat him in 2006) has a great shot.
  • OH-15 (Open): Pryce did not want to go through another nasty and close race and called it quits, and major Republicans (like former AG Petro) passed on the race since then. Meanwhile, 2006 Democratic nominee Kilroy has been campaigning for months and is likely to take away the district.
  • VA-11 (Likely open): Tom Davis is running for Senate, and his district is in blue-trending Northern Virginia. This is exactly the kind of place in which Virginia Democrats have been making huge progress in recent years. Nothing is set in stone until Davis runs, but a huge headache for the GOP.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)
  • FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney): Foley's former seat, that Mahoney only won because of the page scandal. That Republicans only lost by one point under these as-bad-as-it-gets local circumstances shows that Mahoney is not that strong here. Republicans are happy with their candidates, and plan to use Mahoney's recent statements (such as one declaring that Congress "wasn't the greatest job") against him.
Republican seats, Toss-up (12)
  • CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Musgrave, best known for her obsession in the anti-gay marriage amendment, has been constantly under-performing in this district, and she won by a few points in 2006. Democrats did not pay that much attention to the race then, but they will this time. There is a primary between Angie Paccione (the 2006 nominee) and Betsy Markey (a former Salazar aide).
  • CT-4 (Rep. Shays): Shays survived two extremely close races in 2004 and 2006. This time, the candidate has changed and Jim Himes has been highly touted as the Democrat who will finally take out the last New England Republican. Shays is also threatening to resign or retire if leaders don't give him what he wants.
  • IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Netroots favorite Dan Seals got 47% in 2006, and is back for a rematch. IL-10 was on few people's watchlist in 2006 but this is the kind of district the DCCC will go after this time around.
  • MN-03 (Open): Rep. Ramstad announced he was retiring from Congress in September, and the GOP was stunned. Ramstad was on no one's watch list of potential retirements. MN-03 is very tight (Bush carried it by 3 points in 2004) and Democrats have a good bench.
  • NC-8 (Rep. Hayes): Hayes won by a few hundred votes in 2006 against a Democrat to whom no one in DC was paying attention, and who received no funding from the DCCC. This time, Kissel has everyone's attention and will get help from the national party. But Hayes, who was caught off-foot in 2006, will be prepared too.
  • NM-1 (Rep. Wilson): One of the closest races in 2006. Wilson thought her streak of victories against highly-touted Democrat would allow her to get a pass in 2008, but that was before the attorney scandal put her at the heart of an ethics controversy.
  • OH-1 (Rep. Chabot): Chabot has always been in close races, and he surprised many by winning his 2006 race. Like every cycle, Democrats vow that they finally have the solution and will take Chabot down.
  • OH-2 (Rep. Schmidt): A very red district, but Schmidt barely won a 2005 special election against Hackett before winning by a similarly small margin in 2006. She will also probably face a serious primary challenge. It is clear voters do not like Schmidt, and Democrats will try to take advantage.
  • OH-16 (Rep. Regula): Regula is on the brink of retirement, and both parties are ready to run a competitive open seat.
  • NY-25 (Rep. Walsh): Another close-call for Republicans in 2006. Maffei is back for a rematch.
  • PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach): Gerlach won agonizingly close races in both 2004 and 2006. This district is leaning Democratic, and it is a mystery how Gerlach survived when so many of his fellow Pennsylvania Republicans fell. This seat will be at the top of every Democratic target list as long as Gerlach is its congressman.
  • WA-8 (Rep. Reichert): Reichert-Burner was one of the top 2006 races. It finished down the wire, but Burner is now back for a rematch. She has cleared the primary field, and the contest will likely be as close as it was last year.

Democratic seats, Toss-up (9)
  • CA-11 (Rep. McNerney): McNerney won in 2006 in this red district because of the incumbent's ethical troubles. Once the darling of the netroots, he is now being criticized by the left for some of his comments on Iraq. The Republicans are upbeat about their candidate Andal and plan to put this race in the very top of their targets.
  • GA-8 (Rep. Marshall): Marshall barely surived in 2006 because of mid-decade redistricting by Georgia Republicans. Retired General Rick Goddard is gearing up to be the GOP's nominee, and Marshall will be hard pressed to survive again.
  • IL-8 (Rep. Bean): This district is very Republican, and Bean's victory in 2004 was due more to the age of the incumbent than to anything else. But she has built a strong incumbency advantage, and held on semi-comfortably in 2006. She has gone pretty far towards the center and the right in the House, but the GOP really wants this seat back and believes in its candidate Steve Greenberg.
  • KS-2 (Rep. Boyda): One of the most conservative seats represented by a Democrat. Ryiun, the 2006 defeated incumbent, wants a rematch, but he will have to face state treasurer Jenkins in a classic Kansas conservative-moderate bloody primary.
  • NH-1 (Rep. Shea-Porter): The shocker of the 2006 cycle. No one expected this race to switch, but Shea-Porter rode the Democratic wave in NH. Former Rep. Bradley wants a rematch, so this will be a hot race.
  • NY-19 (Rep. Hall): Hall won this seat unexpectedly in 2006, and Republicans see him as a weak incumbent who will lose if he faces a strong challenge. The GOP is excited about its candidate Andrew Saul, so this contest should heat up in the coming months.
  • OH-18 (Rep. Space): This is Ney's old seat, which Space won handily after Space withdrew from the race late in the fall of 2006 to plead guilty to corruption charges. It is a very Republican district, and the GOP wants it back ASAP. But they are having recruitment trouble, and one of their candidates withdrew from the race yesterday.
  • PA-4 (Rep. Altmire): A last-minute addition to Democratic targets in 2006, PA-4 remains a close district. Defeated Republican Hart wants to make a come-back.
  • PA-10 (Rep. Carney): Another district the Democrat only won because of the incumbent's trouble (Sherwood was accused of trying to choke his mistress). The seat is very red, and Carney has had a target on his back since day 1.
  • TX-22 (Rep. Lampson): DeLay's district, that Lampon won under very special circumstances. Given how Republican this seat is (Bush won 67% in 2000), it is stunning that Republicans have struggled to find a top-tier candidate. But whoever the GOP finds, Lampson will at best barely edge it out.
  • WI-8 (Rep. Kagen): Republicans were expected to keep this open seat in 2006, but Kagen ended up spending millions of his own money and winning the seat. He will still have the luxury of that personal spending, but Republicans will go after him.

Republican seats, Lean retention (12)

  • FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan): Republicans basically stole this election in 2006, and Democrat Jennins is back to seek a rematch. Unfortunately, the district has a Republican bent. Now that Buchanan is the incumbent, he will probably benefit
  • FL-24 (Rep. Feeney): Democrats have started attacking Feeney to push him to retire rather than have to face a competitive race. If he does, expect a top-tier race.
  • IL-11 (Open): Ethically challenged Rep. Weller retired in mid-September, opening up a competitive open seat that Bush carried with only 53% of the vote in 2004. Plenty of more Republican seats are represented by Democrats, and the GOP cannot afford open seats like this one.
  • IL-18 (Open): Rep. LaHood retired, and opened up the seat. Just as IL-11, this is a Republican leaning seat, but the GOP could very easily find itself trailing.
  • MI-7 (Rep. Walberg): Walberg defeated a more moderate incumbent Republican in the primary, and Democrats were not ready with a strong candidate in the general election. Walberg is way too conservative for his district, so the seat should be competitive.
  • MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg): This is among the closest seats in the country, and Bush only won it by 2 points. Knollenberg saw his wining margin cut to 5 points in 2006 (from 20 in 2004), and Democrats are excited about their candidate Gary Peters.
  • MO-6 (Rep. Graves): Graves is in a competitive seat, but faced almost no competition in 2006. This time, Democrats vowed to not make it happen and have a highly-touted competitor endorsed by Emily's List.
  • NJ-7 (Rep. Ferguson)
  • NV-3 (Rep. Porter)
  • NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl): All three of these incumbents won very very close races in 2006 despite their races not being considered top-tier by the DCCC. This time, they will do no such mistake and make sure Ferguson, Porter and Kuhl are strongly challenged.
  • VA-2 (Rep. Drake): Drake was supposed to have a tight race in 2006 but had an easier race than predicted. Expect Democrats to correct that this time around.
  • WY-AL (Rep. Cubin): In ruby red Wyoming, Cubin won by only a few points in 2006 after threatening to slap a handicapped man during a debate. Defeated candidate Trauer wants a rematch, but it remains to be seen whether he will be able to make the race as tight in a presidential year.

Democratic seats, Lean retention (12)

  • AZ-5 (Rep. Mitchell)
  • AZ-8 (Rep. Giffords): Both these Arizona races could move down in the ratings if Republicans do not find top challengers soon. Giffords especially has been moving fast to build herself an incumbency firewall, and has been one of the top fundraisers in the House.
  • CT-2 (Rep. Courtney): The closest race in 2006, won by the Democrat by 98 votes. Former Rep. Simmons considered running for a while, but he now is leaning against seeking a rematch.
  • CT-5 (Rep. Murphy): Republicans are very excited about the candidacy of State Senator David Cappiello and look at him as one of their recruitment successes of this cycle. But Murphy won with stunning ease against a popular incumbent in 2006 and has not shown many signs of vulnerability.
  • GA-12 (Rep. Barrow): Barrow barely survived in 2006, but Republicans are not finding a challenger to run against him this time.
  • NY-20 (Rep. Gillbrand)
  • IN-2 (Rep. Donnelly)
  • IN-7 (Rep. Carson): Carson is sitting on a very Democratic seat, but she won by a surprisingly small margin in 2006. She has been sick for quite some time, and refusing to retire, which is making her very vulnerable.
  • IN-8 (Rep. Ellsworth): Ellsworth ousted an incumbent by a huge margin in 2006 and appears a good match for his district, but it is Indiana in a presidential year, and Republicans believe in Greg Goodle.
  • IN-9 (Rep. Hill): Will Sodrel seek a fourth straight rematch with Hill? Sodrel won in 2004, but lost in 2002 and 2006. Hill will be much more safe if Sodrel passes.
  • MN-1 (Rep. Walz)

Republican seats, potentially competitive (13)

  • AK-AL (Rep. Young): Young is in huge ethical trouble, which could lead to a competitive election.
  • CA-52 (Open): Hunter is running for president, and Democrats are trying to see if they can make this usually Republican seat into a competitive contest.
  • DE-AL (Rep. Castle): One of the most Democratic seats in the country still held by a Republican, but Castle is mulling retirement. Do the math.
  • FL-8 (Rep. Keller): Race could become much more interesting if Keller retired.
  • FL-10 (Incumbent: Young): Same situation as Keller.
  • IL-6 (Rep. Roskam): Democrats wasted millions in this race in 2006. Do they really want to go down that route again?
  • IL-14 (Rep. Hastert): Probably too red a seat, but Hastert is resigning and all bets are off in a special election. One key factor: If the governor schedules the general election on Feb. 5th, the day of the Democratic primary with Illinois's very Obama running, Democrats could pull out the upset thanks to a high turn-out.
  • MN-6 (Rep. Bachmann): Democrats had a great shot at MN-6 in the 2006 open seat and blew it. Will they even try this time?
  • NJ-3 (Rep. Saxton): Dem State Senator John Adler is running against Saxton, and Democrats are sure to challenge this suburban swing district that went for Bush by 3 points in 2004 but that had favored Gore by double-digits in 2000.
  • NY-3 (Rep. King): King won his 2006 race by a rather comfortable 12%, but Democrats were distracted by other crucial NY seats. This time, NY Democrats want to close in the last GOP-held districts. He represents Long Island, a traditionally Republican region turning more blue, and his recent inflammatory comments against Muslims aren't necessarily suited to his district's demographics.
  • PA-3 (Rep. English)
  • PA-15 (Rep. Dent):
  • PA-18 (Rep. Murphy): These 3 PA districts are very tight, but Democrats are going to go after them now that they picked-up 4 other districts in the state in 2006.
  • WV-2 (Rep. Capito): Democrats hardly put up a fight against Moore Capito in 2006. But their recruitment of State Senator Unger could make this a much more competitive race.

Democratic seats, potentially competitive (7)
  • KS-3 (Rep. Moore): Perennial Republican target, Moore was easily re-elected in 2006. The GOP is touting State Senator Nick Jordan. But with Kansas Republicans distracted by the second district, Moore could have a free pass again.
  • KY-3 (Rep. Yarmuth): Yarmuth defeated popular Republican Northup in 2006, so odds are he should be in better shape in 2008.
  • MA-05 (Open): This is a special election that will be held on October 16th, so very soon. It should be a walk for Democrats, but recent indications show that Nicky Tsongas (the widow of Senator Tsongas, who ran for the Democratic nomination against Bill Clinton in 1992) could be in trouble against Republican Jim Ogonowski. The only public poll of the race has Tsongas only up 10%, and Ogonowski has raised and spent as much money as the Democrat. In a low-turnout special election, anything could happen.
  • NH-2 (Rep. Hodes): NH Republicans will be distracted by the first district, so it's unclear how much energy they will put in this one.
  • PA-7 (Rep. Sestak)
  • PA-8 (Rep. Murphy): These two districts were won narrowly by Democrats in 2006, but Republicans are going to be busy in PA-10 and PA-4.
  • TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez): These five seats were narrow Democratic pick-ups in 2006, and could very well be competitive again under the right circumstances. But with so many other seats to target, will the GOP want to go after these comparatively stronger freshmen?


  • Betsy, while representing Senator Salazar, spent the last two plus years out in the 4th district helping people connect with the federal government when they couldn't get this done on their own. She helped to write legislation to help preserve Rocky Mountain National Park where she worked with all the various groups who were stakeholders in this process. (Having been given no assistance from either Allard or Musgrave - they saw fit to indicate what a job well done they had done on this bill.)

    She is now well known throughout the 4th district by the "professional" politicians and by the ranchers and "little" people. At a meeting in eastern Colorado, a "little old lady" came up to her and said, "I'm a Republican but I'm going to vote for you as I like your get us out of Iraq thinking". (I'm obviously not quoting exactly - but the meaning is true.)

    Time will tell. These are all good signs. To help Betsy - go to her website - where you can donate and volunteer your time.

    By Blogger Annie, At September 15, 2007 at 3:47 PM  

  • IL-14 (Rep. Hastert): Probably too red a seat, but Hastert might resign, and all bets are off in a special election.

    Last month former Speaker Dennis Hastert announced that he will not run again. Done deal.

    MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann): Democrats had a great shot at MN-06 in the 2006 open seat and blew it. Will they even try this time?

    One potential candidate in the MN Senate field with Franken and Ciresi decided to take on MN-06 instead. So yes indeed, the Democrats will fight for this one.

    By Blogger Woody, At September 15, 2007 at 6:14 PM  

  • TX-23 (Rep. Ciro Rodriguez): One of five seats that were narrow Democratic pick-ups in 2006.
    Ciro has been running scared. He voted against the Authorization for the Use of Force in Iraq back in '02, got primaried from the right in '04 and lost his seat. In this session he hasn't taken every opportunity to oppose Bush and the Repubs on the War. So his name is now found on the list of "Bush dogs" compiled by some party purists, not that any of them actually live in his district. Meanwhile a Hispanic Repub lawyer is gearing up to run against him, ready no doubt to spend and smear.

    But last year, Ciro was running against an incumbent, now he is the incumbent. He's running in a border district, that is, in the part of the state where Democrats do well in Presidential years. He could find himself on the ticket with Rick Noriega running for the Senate against John Cornyn, a race that would bring every last paisano to the polls.

    By Blogger Woody, At September 15, 2007 at 6:29 PM  

  • I mostly agree with your ratings, but there are a couple I disagree with. PA-04 is one, mainly because it is deeply Democratic at its roots. The district has a 51%-36% Dem registration advantage and although it went for Bush in 2000 and 2004, it went handily for Clinton in the 1990's, went for Dukakis in 1988 and even went narrowly for Walter Mondale in 1984. Melissa Hart will try very hard to win this one back for the Republicans, but she is the kind of challenger that will do poorly if 2008 is a real change election since many people may think she is the incumbent and she will also have less money than Altmire. I would put this in Lean Democratic retention territory until I see some polls. I would say the same about OH-18, since Republicans can't seem to get a top tier challenger there and the district does have deep Democratic roots

    By Blogger Mr. Phips, At September 15, 2007 at 8:40 PM  

  • Kudos on this analysis. I find it interesting that Iowa's 1st and 2nd districts are not considered even potentially competitive, even though Democrats picked them both up in 2006 after decades of Republican control.

    By Blogger M. Joseph Goodfriend, At September 15, 2007 at 11:21 PM  

  • Just want to note that Sestak (PA-7) won 57-43 against an incumbent. He's safe in this rapidly democratic-trending district.

    By Blogger themann1086, At September 16, 2007 at 1:43 AM  

  • goodfriend, you must remember that both Iowa districts are now heavily Democratic. Kerry won the 1st by nine points and the second by 14 points.

    By Blogger Mr. Phips, At September 16, 2007 at 8:43 AM  

  • More on Illinois 10

    While Dan Seals gave Mark Kirk a serious scare in Illinois 10 last cycle, Kirk has been turning left and a rematch is not the best way to build the Democratic majority. The good news is Jay Footlik is running against Seals in the primary and should give Kirk all he can handle in the general election.
    I’ve had the chance to hear both of them and Jay stands to Dan’s left on most of the issues. They both call for a firm deadline on withdrawal from Iraq so that is a wash. Jay has called for universal health care, an energy policy free from dependence on foreign sources and expanded educational opportunities for our youth. Dan has yet to articulate firm positions on those issues.

    Jay, a former special assistant to President Clinton and Sen. John Kerry’s chief Middle East adviser, has a foreign policy expertise to dwarf Kirk in an area Kirk touts as his strength. That will focus the general election campaign on domestic issues and Democrats almost always win those debates.

    In Jay Footlik we have the opportunity to build the Democratic majority with a true progressive who stands tall on foreign policy as well. Jay is the best Democratic choice in Illinois 10.

    By Blogger Political Truth, At September 16, 2007 at 1:06 PM  

  • VA-2 (Rep. Drake): Drake was supposed to have a tight race in 2006 but had an easier race than predicted. Expect Democrats to correct that this time around.

    winning 51% to 49% (or less than 5000 votes) is an easier race than expected?

    By Anonymous gomer, At September 18, 2007 at 1:04 AM  

  • I don't know why Carol Shea-Porter is always listed as vulnerable. NH-1 is at worst a neutral district at this point.

    NY-3 shouldn't fall off the radar entirely. The Democratic game in New York in '08 is about trying to win majority in the state Senate, and the state Senate seats to target are in Long Island suburbia in and around King's district. He got 53 or 54% this past election, that number should drop further.

    Nevada Democrats have focussed on and done lot of work in NV-3 this year, and the result is a registration lead for the first time- by 4,000 in the district. (And 2,400 statewide.) Democrats are also just one seat shy of majority in the Nevada state Senate, and the two best districts to target in '08 lie within NV-3 as well (Clark Co.-5 and -6).

    A couple of other ones to watch are OH-14 (LaTourette-O'Neill), CA-24 (Gallegley might retire), and CA-26 (David Dreier).

    By Anonymous cd, At September 18, 2007 at 12:26 PM  

  • gomer, the Democrats need a military recruit to make VA-02 competitive.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At September 18, 2007 at 1:03 PM  

  • WI-08: There is some question just how much Kagen will dip into his pockets this time around. So the personal wealth issue is in question.

    From the 8/19-07 Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Dan Bice:

    Next in line after Obey: first-termer Steve Kagen, who collected nearly $450,000 from January to June. Of that, about $325,000 came from PACs - more than eight times what he took in from special-interest accounts during his entire election run last year.

    "Two things," said Kagen chief of staff David Williams, describing his boss' sudden popularity on the money circuit. "He's now an incumbent, and he's in the majority."

    And he's got a huge target painted on his back.

    Kagen narrowly won his seat during last year's Democratic landslide. Already talking of challenging him in '08 are four Republicans, including last year's loser, former Assembly Speaker John Gard.

    Williams said it is Kagen's aim not to dip into his wallet to underwrite his campaign, even if it takes several million dollars to win. Last year, he pumped more than $2.5 million into the race.

    "People here - for instance, in the D.C. PAC community - have gotten the message that it's important to (House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic majority, including people like Dave Obey, that Steve return," Williams said. "So people are stepping up."

    And they'll keep doing so as long as he's the incumbent and the Democrats are in charge.

    Kagen's best chance of retaining is a hard-fought GOP Primary, which may or may not be happening.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At September 19, 2007 at 12:16 PM  

  • I am calling the 2008 election today. Executive, House and Senate will go to the GOP. Why?
    You guys presuppose the election will be on the up and up; a fair election unburdened by election fraud. The elections in 2000 and 2004 were stolen just like 2008 will be. The ground work for the election fraud that will my 2008 pr4edicted result is being carefully laid today. Rove screwed up in 2006 because he did not fully appreciate the extent of the Demo back lash. You can bet he will not make the same mistake twice. Meanwhile the Dummo’s continue to act as if all is well in Fantasy Land while sitting back waiting for a glorious future. It ain’t gonna happen unless we face the reality and do something about it."Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything." Various;;

    By Anonymous Belt of Orion, At September 20, 2007 at 7:55 AM  

  • You dont think Patrick McHenry R-NC won't have at least a little trouble, considering he is in the middle of a homosexual murder story??

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At October 9, 2007 at 3:28 PM  

  • Better add OH-14 to your Republican potentially competitive list. Former Appelate court judge William O'Neill is running hard in this district, has raised lots of money, and has a good ballot name in the area. This could be interesting, and Bush only took 52% in this district in 2004.

    By Blogger Nick D, At October 14, 2007 at 10:22 PM  

  • "MO-6 (Rep. Graves): Graves is in a competitive seat, but faced almost no competition in 2006. This time, Democrats vowed to not make it happen and have a highly-touted competitor endorsed by Emily's List."

    Don't make it seem like the Dems have a nobody running here! This district contains parts of Kansas City and its suburbs, and it just so happens that former popular Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes is the Dem nominee.

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At October 20, 2007 at 9:57 PM  

  • People should read this.

    By Anonymous Phemia, At November 10, 2008 at 9:04 AM  

  • [url=][/url]

    By Anonymous Anonymous, At February 17, 2010 at 6:26 AM  

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