House Ratings: Democrats poised to keep their majority

The beginning of the month brought the Senate rankings. Two weeks have passed, so it is time to look at the picture in the House. As bad as this week was for the GOP on the Senate (and make no mistake about it, between Hagel's retirement and Warner and Shaheen jumping in the race, this was as bad as it can get), House Republicans did their best to beat that. After a month of recruitment failures and retirement announcements, Republicans are not at their best in House races, and while some of them were hoping that they could reconquer the House in November 2008, that looks increasingly unlikely.

It is naturally very early to tell where most of these races are headed. House contests develop much later than Senate ones. On the Senate side, most Senators are nearing announcements about whether they will run again, and most challengers have already taken steps towards launching their campaign. But on the House side, the recruitment drive is only starting and many more retirements are still expected.

It is however a good exercise to rank these races, see which ones are already in play, which ones are gearing up to be the most competitive of the next cycle, and where the challenging party really hasn't gotten its act together. The overall picture favors Democrats: they are defending no competitive open seats, have put together some good challengers, and are benefiting from the national environment. Many Republicans who barely survived in 2006 are now being targeted, and races that were under-funded then will be treated as top-notch opportunities next year.

But Republicans also have a lot of opportunities: Of the 31 freshmen democrats who picked-up GOP seats last fall, many hold very red districts that are likely to vote even more Republican in a presidential year. Many are already being put to the test, and Republicans are claiming some recruitment victories (CA-11 or CT-5). But the GOP will have to work hard to put all the seats it wants in play.

Outlook: 6-10 seat Democratic pick-up

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open): Ethically challenged Renzi's retirement gave Republicans a better shot at keeping the seat. But this is exactly the kind of scandal-tainted seat Democrats were so good at winning in 2006, so there is no reason to think they are not favored today.
• CA-4 (Incumbent: Doolittle): This district is very heavely Republican and will favor the GOP in a heartbeat again if only FBI-investigated Doolittle gets out of the race. But he is claiming he will run -- and as long as he does Democrat Brown (who almost beat him in 2006) has a great shot.
• OH-15 (Open): Pryce did not want to go through another nasty and close race and called it quits, and major Republicans (like former AG Petro) passed on the race since then. Meanwhile, 2006 Democratic nominee Kilroy has been campaigning for months and is likely to take away the district.
• VA-11 (Likely open): Tom Davis is running for Senate, and his district is in blue-trending Northern Virginia. This is exactly the kind of place in which Virginia Democrats have been making huge progress in recent years. Nothing is set in stone until Davis runs, but a huge headache for the GOP.
  

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney): Foley's former seat, that Mahoney only won because of the page scandal. That Republicans only lost by one point under these as-bad-as-it-gets local circumstances shows that Mahoney is not that strong here. Republicans are happy with their candidates, and plan to use Mahoney's recent statements (such as one declaring that Congress "wasn't the greatest job") against him.
  

Republican seats, Toss-up (12)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Musgrave, best known for her obsession in the anti-gay marriage amendment, has been constantly under-performing in this district, and she won by a few points in 2006. Democrats did not pay that much attention to the race then, but they will this time. There is a primary between Angie Paccione (the 2006 nominee) and Betsy Markey (a former Salazar aide).
  
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays): Shays survived two extremely close races in 2004 and 2006. This time, the candidate has changed and Jim Himes has been highly touted as the Democrat who will finally take out the last New England Republican. Shays is also threatening to resign or retire if leaders don't give him what he wants.
  
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Netroots favorite Dan Seals got 47% in 2006, and is back for a rematch. IL-10 was on few people's watchlist in 2006 but this is the kind of district the DCCC will go after this time around.
• MN-03 (Open): Rep. Ramstad announced he was retiring from Congress in September, and the GOP was stunned. Ramstad was on no one's watch list of potential retirements. MN-03 is very tight (Bush carried it by 3 points in 2004) and Democrats have a good bench.
  
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes): Hayes won by a few hundred votes in 2006 against a Democrat to whom no one in DC was paying attention, and who received no funding from the DCCC. This time, Kissel has everyone's attention and will get help from the national party. But Hayes, who was caught off-foot in 2006, will be prepared too.
  
• NM-1 (Rep. Wilson): One of the closest races in 2006. Wilson thought her streak of victories against highly-touted Democrat would allow her to get a pass in 2008, but that was before the attorney scandal put her at the heart of an ethics controversy.
  
• OH-1 (Rep. Chabot): Chabot has always been in close races, and he surprised many by winning his 2006 race. Like every cycle, Democrats vow that they finally have the solution and will take Chabot down.
  
• OH-2 (Rep. Schmidt): A very red district, but Schmidt barely won a 2005 special election against Hackett before winning by a similarly small margin in 2006. She will also probably face a serious primary challenge. It is clear voters do not like Schmidt, and Democrats will try to take advantage.
  
• OH-16 (Rep. Regula): Regula is on the brink of retirement, and both parties are ready to run a competitive open seat.
  
• NY-25 (Rep. Walsh): Another close-call for Republicans in 2006. Maffei is back for a rematch.
  
• PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach): Gerlach won agonizingly close races in both 2004 and 2006. This district is leaning Democratic, and it is a mystery how Gerlach survived when so many of his fellow Pennsylvania Republicans fell. This seat will be at the top of every Democratic target list as long as Gerlach is its congressman.
  
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert): Reichert-Burner was one of the top 2006 races. It finished down the wire, but Burner is now back for a rematch. She has cleared the primary field, and the contest will likely be as close as it was last year.
  

Democratic seats, Toss-up (9)

• CA-11 (Rep. McNerney): McNerney won in 2006 in this red district because of the incumbent's ethical troubles. Once the darling of the netroots, he is now being criticized by the left for some of his comments on Iraq. The Republicans are upbeat about their candidate Andal and plan to put this race in the very top of their targets.
• GA-8 (Rep. Marshall): Marshall barely surived in 2006 because of mid-decade redistricting by Georgia Republicans. Retired General Rick Goddard is gearing up to be the GOP's nominee, and Marshall will be hard pressed to survive again.
• IL-8 (Rep. Bean): This district is very Republican, and Bean's victory in 2004 was due more to the age of the incumbent than to anything else. But she has built a strong incumbency advantage, and held on semi-comfortably in 2006. She has gone pretty far towards the center and the right in the House, but the GOP really wants this seat back and believes in its candidate Steve Greenberg.
  
• KS-2 (Rep. Boyda): One of the most conservative seats represented by a Democrat. Ryiun, the 2006 defeated incumbent, wants a rematch, but he will have to face state treasurer Jenkins in a classic Kansas conservative-moderate bloody primary.
  
• NH-1 (Rep. Shea-Porter): The shocker of the 2006 cycle. No one expected this race to switch, but Shea-Porter rode the Democratic wave in NH. Former Rep. Bradley wants a rematch, so this will be a hot race.
  
• NY-19 (Rep. Hall): Hall won this seat unexpectedly in 2006, and Republicans see him as a weak incumbent who will lose if he faces a strong challenge. The GOP is excited about its candidate Andrew Saul, so this contest should heat up in the coming months.
• OH-18 (Rep. Space): This is Ney's old seat, which Space won handily after Space withdrew from the race late in the fall of 2006 to plead guilty to corruption charges. It is a very Republican district, and the GOP wants it back ASAP. But they are having recruitment trouble, and one of their candidates withdrew from the race yesterday.
  
• PA-4 (Rep. Altmire): A last-minute addition to Democratic targets in 2006, PA-4 remains a close district. Defeated Republican Hart wants to make a come-back.
  
• PA-10 (Rep. Carney): Another district the Democrat only won because of the incumbent's trouble (Sherwood was accused of trying to choke his mistress). The seat is very red, and Carney has had a target on his back since day 1.
  
• TX-22 (Rep. Lampson): DeLay's district, that Lampon won under very special circumstances. Given how Republican this seat is (Bush won 67% in 2000), it is stunning that Republicans have struggled to find a top-tier candidate. But whoever the GOP finds, Lampson will at best barely edge it out.
  
• WI-8 (Rep. Kagen): Republicans were expected to keep this open seat in 2006, but Kagen ended up spending millions of his own money and winning the seat. He will still have the luxury of that personal spending, but Republicans will go after him.
  

Republican seats, Lean retention (12)

• FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan): Republicans basically stole this election in 2006, and Democrat Jennins is back to seek a rematch. Unfortunately, the district has a Republican bent. Now that Buchanan is the incumbent, he will probably benefit
  
• FL-24 (Rep. Feeney): Democrats have started attacking Feeney to push him to retire rather than have to face a competitive race. If he does, expect a top-tier race.
• IL-11 (Open): Ethically challenged Rep. Weller retired in mid-September, opening up a competitive open seat that Bush carried with only 53% of the vote in 2004. Plenty of more Republican seats are represented by Democrats, and the GOP cannot afford open seats like this one.
• IL-18 (Open): Rep. LaHood retired, and opened up the seat. Just as IL-11, this is a Republican leaning seat, but the GOP could very easily find itself trailing.
  
• MI-7 (Rep. Walberg): Walberg defeated a more moderate incumbent Republican in the primary, and Democrats were not ready with a strong candidate in the general election. Walberg is way too conservative for his district, so the seat should be competitive.
• MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg): This is among the closest seats in the country, and Bush only won it by 2 points. Knollenberg saw his wining margin cut to 5 points in 2006 (from 20 in 2004), and Democrats are excited about their candidate Gary Peters.
  
• MO-6 (Rep. Graves): Graves is in a competitive seat, but faced almost no competition in 2006. This time, Democrats vowed to not make it happen and have a highly-touted competitor endorsed by Emily's List.
  
• NJ-7 (Rep. Ferguson)
  
• NV-3 (Rep. Porter)
  
• NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl): All three of these incumbents won very very close races in 2006 despite their races not being considered top-tier by the DCCC. This time, they will do no such mistake and make sure Ferguson, Porter and Kuhl are strongly challenged.
  
• VA-2 (Rep. Drake): Drake was supposed to have a tight race in 2006 but had an easier race than predicted. Expect Democrats to correct that this time around.
• WY-AL (Rep. Cubin): In ruby red Wyoming, Cubin won by only a few points in 2006 after threatening to slap a handicapped man during a debate. Defeated candidate Trauer wants a rematch, but it remains to be seen whether he will be able to make the race as tight in a presidential year.
  

Democratic seats, Lean retention (12)

• AZ-5 (Rep. Mitchell)
• AZ-8 (Rep. Giffords): Both these Arizona races could move down in the ratings if Republicans do not find top challengers soon. Giffords especially has been moving fast to build herself an incumbency firewall, and has been one of the top fundraisers in the House.
  
• CT-2 (Rep. Courtney): The closest race in 2006, won by the Democrat by 98 votes. Former Rep. Simmons considered running for a while, but he now is leaning against seeking a rematch.
  
• CT-5 (Rep. Murphy): Republicans are very excited about the candidacy of State Senator David Cappiello and look at him as one of their recruitment successes of this cycle. But Murphy won with stunning ease against a popular incumbent in 2006 and has not shown many signs of vulnerability.
• GA-12 (Rep. Barrow): Barrow barely survived in 2006, but Republicans are not finding a challenger to run against him this time.
  
• NY-20 (Rep. Gillbrand)
• IN-2 (Rep. Donnelly)
• IN-7 (Rep. Carson): Carson is sitting on a very Democratic seat, but she won by a surprisingly small margin in 2006. She has been sick for quite some time, and refusing to retire, which is making her very vulnerable.
  
• IN-8 (Rep. Ellsworth): Ellsworth ousted an incumbent by a huge margin in 2006 and appears a good match for his district, but it is Indiana in a presidential year, and Republicans believe in Greg Goodle.
  
• IN-9 (Rep. Hill): Will Sodrel seek a fourth straight rematch with Hill? Sodrel won in 2004, but lost in 2002 and 2006. Hill will be much more safe if Sodrel passes.
  
• MN-1 (Rep. Walz)

Republican seats, potentially competitive (13)

• AK-AL (Rep. Young): Young is in huge ethical trouble, which could lead to a competitive election.
• CA-52 (Open): Hunter is running for president, and Democrats are trying to see if they can make this usually Republican seat into a competitive contest.
  
• DE-AL (Rep. Castle): One of the most Democratic seats in the country still held by a Republican, but Castle is mulling retirement. Do the math.
• FL-8 (Rep. Keller): Race could become much more interesting if Keller retired.
• FL-10 (Incumbent: Young): Same situation as Keller.
• IL-6 (Rep. Roskam): Democrats wasted millions in this race in 2006. Do they really want to go down that route again?
• IL-14 (Rep. Hastert): Probably too red a seat, but Hastert is resigning and all bets are off in a special election. One key factor: If the governor schedules the general election on Feb. 5th, the day of the Democratic primary with Illinois's very Obama running, Democrats could pull out the upset thanks to a high turn-out.
  
• MN-6 (Rep. Bachmann): Democrats had a great shot at MN-6 in the 2006 open seat and blew it. Will they even try this time?
• NJ-3 (Rep. Saxton): Dem State Senator John Adler is running against Saxton, and Democrats are sure to challenge this suburban swing district that went for Bush by 3 points in 2004 but that had favored Gore by double-digits in 2000.
  
• NY-3 (Rep. King): King won his 2006 race by a rather comfortable 12%, but Democrats were distracted by other crucial NY seats. This time, NY Democrats want to close in the last GOP-held districts. He represents Long Island, a traditionally Republican region turning more blue, and his recent inflammatory comments against Muslims aren't necessarily suited to his district's demographics.
  
• PA-3 (Rep. English)
• PA-15 (Rep. Dent):
  
• PA-18 (Rep. Murphy): These 3 PA districts are very tight, but Democrats are going to go after them now that they picked-up 4 other districts in the state in 2006.
• WV-2 (Rep. Capito): Democrats hardly put up a fight against Moore Capito in 2006. But their recruitment of State Senator Unger could make this a much more competitive race.

Democratic seats, potentially competitive (7)

• KS-3 (Rep. Moore): Perennial Republican target, Moore was easily re-elected in 2006. The GOP is touting State Senator Nick Jordan. But with Kansas Republicans distracted by the second district, Moore could have a free pass again.
  
• KY-3 (Rep. Yarmuth): Yarmuth defeated popular Republican Northup in 2006, so odds are he should be in better shape in 2008.
• MA-05 (Open): This is a special election that will be held on October 16th, so very soon. It should be a walk for Democrats, but recent indications show that Nicky Tsongas (the widow of Senator Tsongas, who ran for the Democratic nomination against Bill Clinton in 1992) could be in trouble against Republican Jim Ogonowski. The only public poll of the race has Tsongas only up 10%, and Ogonowski has raised and spent as much money as the Democrat. In a low-turnout special election, anything could happen.
  
• NH-2 (Rep. Hodes): NH Republicans will be distracted by the first district, so it's unclear how much energy they will put in this one.
  
• PA-7 (Rep. Sestak)
• PA-8 (Rep. Murphy): These two districts were won narrowly by Democrats in 2006, but Republicans are going to be busy in PA-10 and PA-4.
  
• TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez): These five seats were narrow Democratic pick-ups in 2006, and could very well be competitive again under the right circumstances. But with so many other seats to target, will the GOP want to go after these comparatively stronger freshmen?