Sunday, August 17, 2008

August ratings: Will the DCCC succeed in putting the third-tier in play?

The GOP has long faced tough odds in the battle of the House. In an election year that promises to be just as Democratic-leaning than 2006, many vulnerable Republican incumbents chose to retire rather than wage a tough battle. Few high-profile Republicans agreed to jump in the races thus left open or to challenge the Democratic freshmen incumbents that were supposedly so vulnerable. And the fundraising disparity between the DCCC and NRCC was obvious from the first days of financial reports of the 2008 cycle.

The road has not been getting any easier for Republicans. While no new incumbent retired and while GOP chances are improving in high-profile districts (NH-01, LA-06 and PA-11), Democrats are continuing to expand the map. 13 GOP-held seats have been moved to a more vulnerable column since the June ratings - compared to only 2 Dem-held districts. There is now a total of 56 GOP-held seats on this list versus 34 Dem-held seats.

It is unlikely that future cycles would be this skewed towards Democrats, and the DCCC is eager to strike at the core of the GOP base, for it might not have another shot at them for a very long time. In this context, the importance of the financial disparity between the DCCC and the NRCC cannot be overstated: Money counts for more in House races than in Senate and presidential contests, and the DCCC's ability to flex its financial muscle is already evident. Over the past month, the Democratic committee reserved a total of $53 million of air time in 51 districts, 34 of which are currently held by the GOP. That's a very large playing field to invest in.

This money is not an actual buy - only a reservation - and the committee can pull the plug on any of this spending. In fact, it is likely that the millions the DCCC has reserved in seats like NY-13 , IL-14 and NY-25 will not even be spent - as these already look like probable Democratic victories - and that money could be relocated to other races. And consider that the $53 million the DCCC has reserved in the fall is within the $58 million of cash on hand it had at the end of June. If the DCCC keeps up its fundraising of $10 million/month, it could very well follow through on all the money it has already reserved (which would by itself be a huge money bomb) and still have as much as $40 million to spend!

Republicans, on the other hand, will face painful choices. In many conservative districts which lean Republican but in which the Democrats are injecting millions, the GOP candidates will be on their own, fighting the blue wave swamped under Democratic spending. Indeed, if the NRCC spends some of its small war chest on districts like FL-18, LA-07 and NM-02, what money will they have left to help their candidates in more obviously competitive districts - NM-01, KS-02, NY-26 or MO-06?

If the situation becomes bad enough that the GOP has to build a firewall in its third-tier of races (places like FL-18 and ID-01), the first and second-tier might find itself entirely submerged and Democrats might post huge gains. If the country's mood balances itself a little and if John McCain manages to limit the electorate's anti-Republican behavior, the third-tier could find itself much safer than it is now - and the GOP might be able to spend its resources on the first and second-tier, significantly limiting its losses.

So will we have a repeat of 2006, with Republicans powerless to stop the blue tsunami though they will probably score some gains of their own this time? Or a district-by-district battle that will still be fought with a clear Democratic edge? That is the key question of the upcoming months, and the answer will have much to do with the dynamics of the presidential race.

I have written full descriptions of seats that have made news since early June. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to the seats that saw their ratings change to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

  • Less vulnerable Democratic seats: IL-08, IN-07, PA-07, OR-05
  • Less vulnerable Republican seats: CA-52, IL-06, MN-06
  • More vulnerable Democratic seats: LA-06, PA-11
  • More vulnerable Republican seats: AL-02, AL-03, FL-18, FL-25, LA-07, NV-02, NV-03, NY-29, PA-03, VA-05, VA-10, VA-11, WV-02
Outlook: Democrats pick-up 13-22 seats. My current prediction is a net pick-up of 17, for a 253-182 Democratic majority.

History of House ratings:
  • June: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York
  • February: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep clear edge
  • November: How many more Republican retirements?
  • October: Democrats feel better as GOP faces worrisome retirements
  • September: Democrats poised to keep majority
Republican seats, Likely take-over (3)

  • NY-13 (open): In my previous ratings, I wrote that "in no other seat did Republican chances collapse as much and as quickly as in this Staten Island seat." Little did I know how much further the GOP's chances would collapse. Shortly after, the candidate Republicans had settled on passed away mid-June, leaving the GOP with no candidate once more. Followed a stunning series of Staten Island Republicans refusing to take on the role as the party's sacrificial lamb and an increasingly acrimonious split between the Staten Island GOP and the Conservative Party. They each ended up settling on their own candidate, former state Rep. Robert Staniere for the GOP and retired banker Paul Atanasio for conservatives. That dual candidacy all but guarantees that Democratic candidate Mike McMahon will win in November - but consider that the situation could have gotten worse for the GOP: at some point in June, there was some talk of their endorsing McMahon!
  • NY-25 (open)
  • VA-11 (open, upgraded, polls): Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, won a low turnout Democratic primary on July 11th and will now face Republican businessman Keith Fimian, whose main advantage is that he can self-fund a race. In this blue-leaning district in increasingly Democratic Northern Virginia, Connolly is heavily favored and should benefit from the Obama's campaign's focus on NoVa. An internal poll released by the Connolly campaign shows the Democrat leading by 31%.
Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

  • AK-AL (Rep. Young, polls): The Republican primary is being held on August 26th, and Rep. Don Young is in great danger against Lieutenant Governor Parnell. The Club for Growth is spending heavily on Parnell's behalf, and Ted Stevens' indictment could not have come at a worst time for Young as it put the focus on the state GOP's corruption scandals. Sarah Palin endorsed Parnell recently, calling him "honest" and "conservative" - a way to highlight the two charges Young faces (overspending and ethics). If Young somehow survives the primary, the race could move to the likely take-over column; if Parnell becomes his party's nominee, Democrats will have a tougher time and the race will become a toss-up. The latest poll has Parnell narrowly ahead of Berkowitz but Young trailing widely.
  • AZ-01 (Open)
  • IL-11 (Open)
  • NJ-03 (Open): Not only are Democrats already favored to pick-up this district, but the DCCC decision to reserve $1.7 million worth of air time in the district should be all state Senator John Adler needs to clinch victory. Sure, the media market is expensive, and the DCCC does not have to spend that money, but when the moment comes for the NRCC to decide which races it will spend its small money on, it is unlikely NJ-03 will make the cut.
Democratic seats, Lean take-over (3)

  • FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)
  • LA-06 (Rep. Cazayoux, upgraded): Following his special election victory in May, Don Cazayoux was favored to win re-election. But two developments have complicated things for Democrats here. First, Democratic state Rep. Michael Jackson, who was defeated in the Dem primary, decided to run as an independent. He is African-American and represents Baton Rouge, the part of the district in which Cazayoux needs to build huge margins. Second, Woody Jenkins, the GOP nominee in the special election, decided not to run in the special election. Jenkins was a tarnished candidate whose controversial profile doomed Republican chances. The general election will now feature two Democrats and a Republican whose name will not be Jenkins. That could be enough for Bill Cassidy to win the seat back for the GOP.
  • TX-22 (Rep. Lampson)
Republican seats, Toss-up (15)

  • AL-02 (Open, upgraded, polls): As expected, Democrats nominated Bobby Bright, the conservative mayor of Montgomery who was affiliated to neither party before he jumped in this race. The Republican candidate is state Senator Jay Love, who survived a contentious primary. This district is so overwhelmingly Republican that it should be impossible for a Democrat to win, but that Bright chose to run as a Democrat suggests otherwise. After all, Bright could just as easily filed as a Republican - and was courted by the NRCC. Three polls of these race were released in the space of 10 days, suggesting that Bright might have an edge: Love had a narrow 2% lead in his campaign's internal poll, but Bright's internal that showed him leading by 10% was confirmed by an independent poll that found the same margin.
  • CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): In 04 and 06, independent groups attacked Musgrave with some memorable advertisements (most famously this 2004 ad of a Musgrave impersonator stealing from a soldier’s pocket). Now, it looks like Musgrave will be a target of outside groups yet again, with Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund already spending $175,000 on this ad focused on energy issues. The DCCC has already reserved $600,000 worth of advertisement in this district, not a huge amount considering that the Denver market is not cheap, but a strong start that should boost Betsy Markey's efforts.
  • CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
  • IL-10 (Rep. Kirk)
  • MN-03 (Open)
  • NC-8 (Rep. Hayes, polls)
  • NJ-07 (Open)
  • NM-01 (Open, polls): When Heather Wilson announced she would not run for re-election, most Democrats expected this seat to be a relatively easy pick-up. But Darren White is one of the only strong recruitment coups of the NRCC this cycle, and it seems like he will at least succeed at keeping the race close. The two campaigns exchanged dueling internal polls in July showing their own candidate in the lead.
  • NV-03 (Rep. Porter, upgraded): Rep. Porter barely survived his 2006 re-election race against a political newcomer and his district has gotten much more Democratic since then. Highly-touted Democratic candidate Robert Daskas dropped out in April, leading to Senate Minority Leader and former gubernatorial candidate Dona Titus to join the race. Titus is a high-profile candidate who guarantees the race remains in the spotlight. Nevada Democrats are especially interested in defeating Porter this year, as he would be one of the toughest challengers for Senator Harry Reid in 2010. An internal poll released by the Titus campaign showed the Democrat narrowly ahead.
  • NY-26 (Open): We will know more about this race after the primaries decide which Democrat will move on to the general election: Iraq War veteran Jon Power or controversial self-funder Jack Davis, who is injecting millions of his own money in the race after getting the Supreme Court to struck down the Millionaire's amendment?
  • NY-29 (Rep. Kuhl, upgraded): The DCCC has reserved $2.7 million in the upstate New York media market, a sum that can be spent on this race, as well as NY-25 and NY-26. It is unlikely that Maffei will need that much money in NY-25, meaning that Eric Massa will receive a prodigious amount of money from the national party. Considering the state of disarray New York Republicans are in, that could be enough for Democrats to complete the job they started in 2006, when Kuhl survived by 2%. For now, the election is being waged on energy issues, with Massa embracing the GOP rhetoric to demand a special session on the issue.
  • OH-01 (Rep. Chabot): Two factors that will determine this race is whether Barack Obama's candidacy succeeds in boosting black turnout, and how much the GOP will bleed support in the traditionally Republican suburbs. An internal poll released in July by the Chabot campaign showed him leading 50% to 37%.
  • OH-15 (Open): This seat is a disappointment for Democrats. When Rep. Pryce announced she would retire back in 2007, Dems felt really good about the chances of Mary Jo Kilroy. But GOP scored one of its best recruitment coups with state Senator Steve Stivers. In another year, this race would be a purer toss-up; in 2006, Kilroy remains slightly favored but OH-015 is far from the clear pick-up opportunity it was a few months back. A SUSA poll released in August showed Kilroy ahead by 3%.
  • OH-16 (Open)
  • WA-8 (Rep. Reichert, polls): Darcy Burner had a tough summer, as her house entirely burned down in the beginning of July, taking her off the campaign trail for a while. Yet, Burner is one of the best-funded House challengers: she raised more in the second quarter and she has more cash-on-hand than her opponent, GOP incumbent Rep. Reichert. The race promises to be just as tight as it was in 2006, and we will see whether Burner can ride presidential coattails.
  • WY-AL (Open)
Democratic seats, Toss-up (9)

  • AL-05 (Open, had forgotten before): We have known that AL-05 would be one of the most endangered Democratic-held seats since the day Rep. Cramer announced he would retire back in March. For some reason, I forgot to include it in my previous ratings - and the seat's sudden appearance in the toss-up column should not be interpreted as the GOP gaining ground over the past two months. Both parties selected their nominees, state Senator Parker Griffith for Democrats and Wayne Parker for Republicans. This is a very conservative district (Bush got 60% in 2004) and the GOP has to be very frustrated that they are not doing better here - this is the type of red seats they need to claim to have a chance at regaining the House majority any time soon.
  • CA-11 (Rep. McNerney)
  • GA-8 (Rep. Marshall)
  • IN-09 (Rep. Hill, polls)
  • KS-02 (Rep. Boyda, polls): In early August, state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (who represents the moderate wing of the state's GOP) narrowly defeated conservative, who was defeated in 2006. She will now take on Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda, who is one of the most endangered Democrats of the cycle. It is difficult to assess the race until we know how deep the wounds from the GOP primary: how will the district’s more conservative voters react to Jenkins’s general election candidacy? The Kansas GOP, after all, has been split in ideological feuds for years. Boyda, meanwhile, is planning a repeat of her 2006 grassroots campaign and has convinced the DCCC to not spend any money on her re-election race, leaving her all alone to fight her opponent.
  • NH-01 (Rep. Shea-Porter, polls): Defeating Carol Shea-Porter has been one of the GOP's top priorities ever since the Democrat posted the biggest upset of Election Night 2006. Rep. Bradley is running for his own seat - but he first has to defeat John Stephen in what should be a crucial primary. The New Hampshire Union Leader has endorsed Stephen, in what could be a crucial show of support for the more conservative Republican. A recent UNH poll showed that Shea-Porter would be in great danger against both GOPers, though she would have more breathing room against Stephen.
  • PA-4 (Rep. Altmire)
  • PA-10 (Rep. Carney)
  • PA-11 (Rep. Paul Kanjorski, upgraded): Kanjorski is a long-term Democratic incumbent who is facing a more difficult re-election race than many of the freshmen of the 2006 class. That is due both to his opponent, Lou Barletta, who has become a high-profile Republican due to his harsh stance on immigration, and to the fact that he has neglected to build a strong local organization due to the fact that he has not faced a tough election. Barletta has released two internal polls showing him narrowly ahead, and while Democrats have not made their own polls public there is no doubt the DCCC is very worried: they have already spent a total of $260,000 on this district and are running ads on Kanjorski's behalf.
Republican seats, Lean retention (17)

  • CA-04 (Open)
  • FL-13 (Rep. Buchanan): In this rematch of the bitterly disputed 2006 election (in which Vern Buchanan scored a controversial 369 vote victory), both candidates are already on air, setting the tone for what is sure to be a bitter and emotional few months.
  • FL-21 (Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart): See the description of FL-25 (below) for more context, as the FL-21 race similarly pits two Cuban-Americans and a battle on Miami airwaves. A recent poll had the Republican incumbent leading by only 4% against Martinez.
  • FL-24 (Rep. Feeney)
  • FL-25 (Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, upgraded): The battle for Southern Florida is reaching fever pitch here, with Diaz-Balart facing fellow Cuban-American Joe Garcia. The Diaz-Balarts might not be used to highly competitive elections, but the DCCC's decision to reserve $1.4 million worth of air time this fall in the Miami market (the money will be spent on FL-18, FL-21, and FL-25) guarantees that this area will be ground zero of the House battle - and one that will test whether the allegiance of Cuban-Americans is at all shifting away from the GOP. A poll released in July had Garcia trailing by 5%.
  • IL-18 (Open)
  • KY-02 (Open)
  • LA-04 (Open): This is not the type of district in which Democrats are expected to compete (how many times have I used those words in these house ratings?) but the retirement of Rep. McCrery has given Democrats an opening they are ready to exploit. The Democratic candidate, Paul Carmouche, is the DA of the parish in which the district is located, while the GOP will have to wait for its crowded primary to be settled. We will have to wait to get a better idea of the general election match-up, but it is obvious that Democrats are hopeful: Carmouche released an internal poll finding him ahead of all his potential opponents, and even if that advantage comes from a better name recognition will Republican candidates have the funds to address that in the three months ahead? The DCCC has reserved more than $700,000 worth of ad time for the fall, a large buy in this relatively cheap district.
  • MI-07 (Rep. Walberg, polls): Conflicting internal polls released by the Walberg and Schauer campaigns showed the GOP incumbent leading by 16% and by 3% - but in both cases under 50%. But Mark Schauer is out-raising his Republican opponent, and the DCCC has already budgeted a substantial investment this fall.
  • MI-09 (Rep. Knollenberg)
  • MO-06 (Rep. Graves, polls)
  • MO-09 (Open): Both parties settled on their nominees in early August. Republicans nominated Blaine Luetkemeyer, while Democrats chose their more liberal option, Judy Baker. The Democrat's base is in the district's urban centers, so she will have to run up the margins there while holding on in its rural parts. One advantage Republicans will have: current GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof will be running statewide in the gubernatorial race, potentially allowing Luetkemeyer to ride his coattails.
  • NM-02 (Open)
  • OH-02 (Rep. Schmidt)
  • PA-03 (Rep. English, upgraded): In a close district at the presidential level, Rep. English is favored but Democrats remember that he only got 54% in 2006 despite the opposition barely contesting the race. This year, Democrats have nominated a pro-lifer, Kathy Dahlkemper, who released an internal poll showing her ahead by 1%! That's not enough to get Republicans panicked, but neither English nor the RNCC have released a poll to counter Dahlkemper's...
  • VA-02 (Rep. Drake)
  • WV-02 (Rep. Capito, upgraded): In a district that has become Republican over the past decade, Shelley Capito has looked increasingly solid over her re-election races. But as the only GOP office-holder in what remains a Democratic state at the local level, she is a perennial target for Democrats. The party is excited by the candidacy of Anne Barth - and while Emily's List did not have a great track record in 2006 and over the past few months, their endorsement should at least guarantee that Barth remains well-funded.
Democratic seats, Lean retention (13)

  • AZ-05 (Rep. Mitchell)
  • AZ-08 (Rep. Giffords, polls)
  • CT-05 (Rep. Murphy)
  • GA-12 (Rep. Barrow)
  • IL-08 (Rep. Bean, downgraded): In a neutral year, Melissa Bean is sure to be one of her party's most vulnerable incumbents. But in a Democratic year and in the state of Barack Obama, Bean should have some breathing room. She also knows that she will always be targeted by the GOP and she fundraises and organizes accordingly. Her opponent Steve Greenberg is highly-touted by the GOP, but he will need to quicken his fundraising pace and find new attack angles to come out on top.
  • KS-03 (Rep. Moore)
  • KY-03 (Rep. Yarmuth, polls): Anne Northup is attempting to come back to Congress after a failed gubernatorial run in 2007. In a district that leans ever so slightly Democratic at the presidential level, Northup needs to run a flawless campaign but for now her camp seems to be in disarray after a staff shake-up that has left her without a campaign manager.
  • MS-01 (Rep. Childers)
  • NY-19 (Rep. Hall)
  • NY-20 (Rep. Gillbrand)
  • MN-1 (Rep. Walz)
  • OR-05 (Open, downgraded): Along with AL-05, this is one of only two Democratic-held open seats that is competitive. But GOP prospects are plummeting because of the candidacy of Mike Erickson. Back in may, Erickson was viciously attacked by his primary opponent Kevin Manni for having paid his girlfriend's abortion years ago. Right to Life immediately blasted Erickson, but all that drama unfolded too late to damage Erickson in a state in which most voters sent their ballot in early via mail. Erickson prevailed in the primary. If there was any doubt then that the abortion story would damage his chances, the story soon got worse for Erickson: the woman whose abortion Erickson allegedly paid for confirmed the story to to the Oregonian and blasted Erickson's pro-life record. conservative activists.
  • WI-8 (Rep. Kagen, polls)
Republican seats, likely retention (17)

  • AL-03 (open, upgraded): This is a long-shot race for Democrats for sure, but the DCCC appears to have taken an interest in Alabama races - and the local press has taken notice. Democratic nominee Joshua Segall will be helped by the fact that AL-02 and AL-05 are both featuring contested races, in the hope that a mention of his own contest will be inserted in other House stories.
  • FL-8 (Rep. Keller)
  • FL-15 (open)
  • FL-18 (Rep. Ros-Lehtinen, upgraded): This is the third race in the Southern Florida battle, and while the Republican incumbent seems safer than in neighboring FL-21 and FL-25, the money the DCCC will spent in the Miami market could just as easily be spent here than in the other races. (We will have to wait and see the size of the investment.) An independent poll of the race had Ros-Lehtinen leading 51% to 38% against Annette Taddeo, a decent margin but certainly not enough to keep the race out of these ratings.
  • ID-01 (Rep. Sali): That this district is even on the list is just as stunning this year than it was 2 years ago. But Bill Sali still has a rocky relationship with his state's GOP and his Democratic opponent Walt Minnick is outraising him - a stunning feat for an Idaho Democrat. And the DCCC has reserved nearly $350,000 of media time for the fall - a small investment for them to make but one that is big by Idaho standards (compared to a buy in the Chicago area, it gets almost twice the amount of time with $1 million less!)
  • IL-06 (Rep. Roskam, downgraded): In 2006, IL-06 was the DCCC's heart-breaker and a source of anger for many party activists who protested the millions the national party wasted in this district at the expense of other races like NC-08. This year, the DCCC found someone else from the military to run, Jill Morgenthaler; she is sure to be even less exciting to local activists than Duckworth was, as she was the Army spokeswoman during the Abu Graib scandal. This is a swing district at the presidential level, and Morgenthaler could be helped by Obama's presence at the top of the ticket. But a recent internal poll released by Rep. Roskam shows her crushing the Democrat by 30%.
  • LA-07 (Rep. Boustany, upgraded): Democrats have suddenly taken interest in Louisiana's House races - including this conservative seat few people expected to see competitive. State Senator Don Cravins entered the race in mid-June and could take advantage of the area's substantial African-American population. Boustany only picked up the seat for Republicans in 2004, after all, and the DCCC has added Cravins to its Red to Blue list.
  • MD-01 (Open)
  • MN-06 (Rep. Bachmann, downgraded): Of all open seats Democrats were contesting in 2006, MN-06 was particularly disappointing, as very conservative GOPer Michelle Bachmann won by a decent 8%. This year's Democratic candidate, Elwyn Tinklenberg, should force Bachmann to play defense but he has been significantly outraised and the DCCC might not be as eager to play in the district.
  • NV-02 (Rep. Heller, upgraded): This seat should not be expected to be competitive, as Bush got 57% in both 2000 and 2004. But Heller's first election back in 2006 was surprisingly weak and the Democrat he vanquished, Jill Derby, is back for a rematch. The seat has been added to the DCCC's Red to Blue program, so Derby could receive some assistance by the national committee. And while Heller starts as the clear favorite, the seat will test how much Nevada's demographics have evolved in the past decade.
  • OH-07 (Open)
  • OH-14 (Rep. LaTourette)
  • PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach)
  • PA-15 (Rep. Dent)
  • PA-18 (Rep. Murphy)
  • VA-05 (Rep. Goode, upgraded): Democrats are touting Tom Pariello's chances in this conservative district, and in a sign that this is not all talk the DCCC has added Pariello to its Red to Blue program. But there is no doubt that this remains a long-shot for Democrats. A recent poll conducted by SUSA showed Goode with a 34% lead.
  • VA-10 (Rep. Wolf, upgraded): Just like in VA-05, Democrats are making enough noise about VA-10 that the seat ought to at least be added to the list of potentially competitive districts. Bush won VA-10 with 55% in 2004 - not an unsurmountable Republican lean. The DCCC has added Judy Feder to its Red to Blue list, in what will be a rematch of the 2006 election which Rep. Wolf won by 16%.
Democratic seats, likely retention (9)

  • CT-02 (Rep. Courtney)
  • IL-14 (Rep. Foster)
  • IN-02 (Rep. Donnelly)
  • IN-07 (Rep. Carson, downgraded): Andre Carson won a special election this spring against state Rep. Jon Elrod, a Republican who would have done better in another year and if the NRCC had had more money to come to his rescue. Carson already looked like the favorite for the November rematch, but he now is even safer as Elrod announced he would give up on his congressional candidacy and run for re-election instead.
  • IN-08 (Rep. Ellsworth)
  • NH-02 (Rep. Hodes)
  • OH-18 (Rep. Space)
  • PA-08 (Rep. Murphy)
  • TX-23 (Rep. Rodriguez)

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